December 11 Week Event(s)

[WxUSAF]

BWI had a -11F departure yesterday with 0.3" of snow. -10F and a T for both IAD and DCA.  

[WxUSAF]

Public Information Statement
Spotter Reports
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
933 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 18
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BALTIMORE

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

MARYLAND

...Allegany County...
   Frostburg              3.6   700 AM 12/14  Co-Op Observer
   1 NW Ridgeley          3.0   719 AM 12/14  Trained Spotter
   1 WSW Brady            2.5   700 AM 12/14  CoCoRaHS
   2 ENE Frostburg        2.3  1145 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter
   SSW Cresaptown         2.0   800 AM 12/14  Trained Spotter
   Flintstone             0.8   625 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter

...Anne Arundel County...
   Bwi Airport            0.3  1030 PM 12/13  Airport

...Baltimore County...
   2 ESE White Marsh      1.0   700 AM 12/14  CoCoRaHS
   2 NW Long Green        0.8  1000 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter
   1 E Kingsville         0.8   700 AM 12/14  CoCoRaHS
   1 W Parkton            0.6   630 AM 12/14  Trained Spotter
   1 E Bentley Springs    0.5   940 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter
   Reisterstown           0.5   914 PM 12/13  County Emrg Mgmt
   1 SW Glyndon           0.5   803 AM 12/14  Trained Spotter
   2 ENE Nottingham         T   912 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter

...Baltimore City...
   2 SE Pikesville        0.7  1100 PM 12/13  CoCoRaHS
   Baltimore              0.5   910 PM 12/13  Broadcast Media

...Carroll County...
   1 SSW Manchester       0.9   943 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter
   NE Oakland             0.7   940 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter
   Gamber                 0.5   500 AM 12/14  CoCoRaHS
   1 SE Eldersburg        0.5  1011 PM 12/13  CoCoRaHS
   3 NE Sykesville        0.4   700 AM 12/14  CoCoRaHS

...Frederick County...
   3 N Thurmont           0.3   700 AM 12/14  Trained Spotter

...Harford County...
   Whiteford              0.9   945 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter
   1 WSW Norrisville      0.7  1229 AM 12/14  CoCoRaHS
   Norrisville            0.7   700 AM 12/14  CoCoRaHS
   Phillips Aaf           0.5   700 AM 12/14  Co-Op Observer
   1 W Bel Air            0.5   700 AM 12/14  CoCoRaHS

...Howard County...
   1 NW Ellicott City     0.5   858 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter
   2 N Columbia           0.4   700 AM 12/14  CoCoRaHS
   Elkridge               0.4  1104 PM 12/13  NWS Employee
   1 ESE Gaither          0.3   700 AM 12/14  CoCoRaHS

...Montgomery County...
   1 NNE Fairland           T  1007 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter

...Prince Georges County...
   2 ESE Glenn Dale         T   645 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter

...Washington County...
   3 NNW Pecktonville     0.7   700 AM 12/14  NWS Employee
   3 NNE Boonsboro        0.5   600 AM 12/14  Trained Spotter

VIRGINIA

...Arlington County...
   Reagan National Airp     T   710 PM 12/13  Airport

...Fairfax County...
   1 NNE Herndon            T   715 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter

...Loudoun County...
   Dulles International     T   700 PM 12/13  Airport

WEST VIRGINIA

...Berkeley County...
   2 NW Falling Waters    0.4   838 PM 12/13  CoCoRaHS
   2 S Inwood             0.2   800 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter
   1 NNE Winebrenners C   0.1   800 AM 12/14  CoCoRaHS

...Grant County...
   Bayard                 3.6   700 AM 12/14  Co-Op Observer
   2 ESE Kline Gap          T   533 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter

...Hardy County...
   3 E Wardensville         T   539 PM 12/13  Trained Spotter

...Mineral County...
   Keyser 2 Ssw Coop      0.9   700 AM 12/14  Co-Op Observer

&&

[Ralph Wiggum]

The trend is your friend. 12Z NAM trying to pull a little engine that could maneuver for tomorrow. 6z vs 12z:

 

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The trend is your friend. 12Z NAM trying to pull a little engine that could maneuver for tomorrow. 6z vs 12z:

 

Though it is on life support I haven't given up on that yet. It is still close enough that things could still break our way.

[WxUSAF]

0z GGEM gives a little to eastern areas of the subforum.  

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Though it is on life support I haven't given up on that yet. It is still close enough that things could still break our way.

0z RGEM and EURO both had a skiff for extreme eastern areas. I will root hard as I am headed for Rehoboth. Be nice to see a little snow in the air.

[showmethesnow]

GFS is now putting Eastern MD into play for a little snow tomorrow night.

[showmethesnow]

We are seeing a slight shifting west of the trough as well as the slight interaction we see between the streams. Thus we are seeing development of the low closer to the coast. We also are seeing a little quicker development as the front side of the trough is a little more favorable for intensification.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

We are seeing a slight shifting west of the trough as well as the slight interaction we see between the streams. Thus we are seeing development of the low closer to the coast. We also are seeing a little quicker development as the front side of the trough is a little more favorable for intensification.

It just wants to snow this year...

Now if we can include Virginia in some of the fun this time around, I'll be happy. =) NAM's are close.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

We are seeing a slight shifting west of the trough as well as the slight interaction we see between the streams. Thus we are seeing development of the low closer to the coast. We also are seeing a little quicker development as the front side of the trough is a little more favorable for intensification.

The short term trends this season have been very favorable. Been a long time since we've been on the good side of these breaks. Stay positive everyone, this year is just different. Variability will probably rule but imo we are not headed down a long, dark one-way road.

[WxUSAF]

24 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

GFS is now putting Eastern MD into play for a little snow tomorrow night.

Back it up back it up!

 

[yoda]

12z GGEM tries for a little snow in DC metro before some snow NE MD/Eastern Shore Fri afternoon... dusting to an inch?

12z UKIE likes Eastern Shore as well for an inch or so

[CAPE]

12z Euro for tomorrow night

 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z Euro for tomorrow night

 

 

itshappening.gif

 

Totally going with gut and no science, but 2 in a row have trended better for us in short lead times.  A little more and most of the subforum could get 1-2" out of this. 

[CAPE]

I am feelin' this one

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

itshappening.gif

 

Totally going with gut and no science, but 2 in a row have trended better for us in short lead times.  A little more and most of the subforum could get 1-2" out of this. 

I wish, but I just can't see it since its developing the SLP late and there is no real moisture around us

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I wish, but I just can't see it since its developing the SLP late and there is no real moisture around us

Right, the moisture is all coming from the ATL.  Which is why we need the low to develop slightly earlier. This is what was being shown a few days ago.  

[Cobalt]

17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Long range Hrrr for a big fwiw for tomorrow 

That 0.1" of precip line is soo close to DC. We just need the storm to develop sooner, and we're golden. It does seem like it does want to snow this winter

[Chase]

LWX Discussion:

 This now looks like it will be just close enough,
when combined with the forcing from the northern stream trough
and intensifying jet max to bring some light snow to portions of
the region on Friday. Model differences still exist with
respect to westward extent, but the trends today have been for
high chances for our region.

Have increased snow probabilities to likely across portions of
southern Maryland and to chance as far west as the I-95 corridor
for late Friday morning, peaking in the afternoon, and ending
during the early evening. Have shown accumulations of less than
one inch for the Maryland counties that border the Chesapeake
Bay, going to a trace or less west of I-95. However, uncertainty
is still quite high at this time.

[yoda]

18z NAM seems to have a bit more snow on the map at hr 18 in W VA comparing it to hr 24 of 12z NAM

ETA:  Can def tell when comparing 18z NAM at hr 23 and 12z NAM at hr 29

[yoda]

15 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z NAM seems to have a bit more snow on the map at hr 18 in W VA comparing it to hr 24 of 12z NAM

ETA:  Can def tell when comparing 18z NAM at hr 23 and 12z NAM at hr 29

Looks like an inch or so across the I-95 area into S MD on 18z 12km NAM through hr 30

[yoda]

18z 3km NAM favors S MD and the Eastern shore with regards to snowfall intensity... I-95 corridor gets a few hours snow but it is light

[csnavywx]

I'm going to interject to say: be careful here.

There's a glaring problem with getting snow tomorrow -- a lack of ice crystals in-cloud. There's a glaring dry layer showing up above the -8C to -10C isotherm. The saturated layer(s) above this dry layer are a bit too far away for any reliable seeder-feeder mechanism. In addition, most of the lift is focused under the ice-bearing layer and DGZ.

This setup screams freezing drizzle to me -- maybe interspersed with some snow grains or a singluar band or two of actual snow (where lift is strongest). Given the recent colder weather and lows tonight in the upper teens to low 20s, this could drag ground temps down far enough for this to be a serious issue during drive time tomorrow.

[yoda]

FWIW

[yoda]

[csnavywx]

This is a freezing drizzle sounding.

[yoda]

18z RGEM has qpf across the area for tomorrow afternoon... QPF is over us on the 24 hr map (18z FRI) and along I-95 and east on the 36 hr map (06z SAT)

[Cobalt]

Trend is your friend. All I need is 0.1" of snow to top 3" of the year. Temps are cold too. Seems like anything that falls would stick.

[yoda]

24 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z RGEM has qpf across the area for tomorrow afternoon... QPF is over us on the 24 hr map (18z FRI) and along I-95 and east on the 36 hr map (06z SAT)

Looks decent for what it is looking at the precip map -- http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Start at hour 22 and go to 28

[mitchnick]

If this ends up working out tomorrow, I'm starting all the storm threads this winter!  lol