mitchnick Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 This is intended to be a start to discussing events this week in 1 spot. As time grows closer and things look more imminent, we can/should probably start separate threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3-6 this week or winters a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Monday storm included ? Sure, why not. If that turns out to be bigger for us, then I'm sure it'll have its own thread. But until then, this one should work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Certainly looks like a threat Thursday and again on Friday. Models seem to be coming around on the diea that hte bog vortex to the northeast will force the Thursday clipper to the south of us. It will be moisture starved but should have great ratios. The Friday event has more potential so it's one to watch. I'm sure the models will end up with their max over my house and the real max ending over Chill's. I wrote an article for CWG about the clipper and in it alluded to the Friday event. I should have planned my discussion better so I could have spent more time on the Friday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 l love when people say Wes deserves the snow. Why lol. he chose to live in a non wintry area. What Wes deserves is winning Washington Sports teams! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 At least snow has a possibility of coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 When Wes is talking about potential... that means its a good shot or has a good chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I don't like having to choose between storms to root for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Good gfs run. Shows potential start to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jandurin said: I don't like having to choose between storms to root for. You must have loved the last two Decembers then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Good gfs run. Shows potential start to finish. That system at the very end of the run looks a lot like what just happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You must have loved the last two Decembers then. I don't like 0 storms, either. Give me 1 every 5 days to root for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, Jandurin said: I don't like 0 storms, either. Give me 1 every 5 days to root for. Fair enough. Personally I'm never going to say "we have too many snow threats this week" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I absolutely love tracking a cold clipper. Potential to bust, for sure, but the upside is pretty huge, even if there's not a ton of moisture around. Great ratios and fluffy flakes that have a hard time sticking where they land because any wind will blow them gently from street to street and yard to yard. It's the kind of snow that ends up with wispy white vortices that dance across the road as the cars race by. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 7 out of 20 suggest 2" or more through 120 hrs -- which is 12z SAT. FWIW, 4 of those 7 have 3" or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just to elaborate on the above image, I've broken it up into what would be the "Thursday Clipper" vs. "Thursday Clipper+Fri/Sat Period of Interest" Just Thursday/Fri Morning: Into Saturday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, yoda said: 7 out of 20 suggest 2" or more through 120 hrs -- which is 12z SAT. FWIW, 4 of those 7 have 3" or more Hey, E6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Mean from 6z Jumped up 1". This is very good news, especially since both events could have high ratios, which leads me to believe that Western burbs will be the jackpot of these occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 If that verifies, I'll have eclipsed my 2016-2017 winter total already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Boy you guys aren't kidding. Just took a look at the 12z GFS from hr 96-105 looks excellent in these parts and up your guys way as well. Would be nice if it stuck to this or if the southern stream could dig more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Boy you guys aren't kidding. Just took a look at the 12z GFS from hr 96-105 looks excellent in these parts and up your guys way as well. Would be nice if it stuck to this or if the southern stream could dig more. Yeah if we can get that clipper to dive just to our south .. and get a little redevelopment off the coast... We should easily get another 2-4, 3-6 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I think that if we can score on even 1 of these 2 events, some of the people who scored big last event could have over 10" on the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, PDIII said: Yeah if we can get that clipper to dive just to our south .. and get a little redevelopment off the coast... We should easily get another 2-4, 3-6 event. Clipper passing within 50 -75 to our south with a decent push of WAA snow can easily yield a low end warning snowfall for the climo areas and a solid advisory event for the rest. Hopefully it's not a virga fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Nothing much from the Thursday clipper for most of the region per 12z EURO... looks like the transfer robs most of us of any chance for flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Nothing much from the Thursday clipper for most of the region per 12z EURO... looks like the transfer robs most of us of any chance for flakes Does anyone know the verification scores from the Euro regarding handling of clipper events? I feel like it has been performing sub par recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 Euro Day 4 MSL anomaly map https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=eus&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017121112&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=422 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 meh, looks like the Euro pushes it out to sea by day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Looks like we get something based on the weather.us site. Light precip from 12-6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, yoda said: Nothing much from the Thursday clipper for most of the region per 12z EURO... looks like the transfer robs most of us of any chance for flakes Dusting-1" for most of the subforum. Which is about all that I expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Looks like another dusting to an inch Friday... Eastern Shore does well again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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