Zelocita Weather Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Most models have a clipper cutting down from the plains and rounding the bend with some light snows in the area. Very cold air will be in place, so possible some coastal enhancement as well. Newest NAM depiction below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 Latest GFS has the strip of ~ 1" or so further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 The development of an offshore storm Friday looks a little more promising, especially for eastern sections of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 4:07 PM, donsutherland1 said: The development of an offshore storm Friday looks a little more promising, especially for eastern sections of the region. Expand It wouldn't take much for the storm to throw some more snow back. We just witnessed how a forecasted miss a few days out managed to drop advisory snows on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 EURO have anything for the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 12z RGEM gives northern Jersey, NYC and LI 1 to 2 inches with the clipper wednesday night into thursday morning. Hopefully we can pick up a little accumulation with this clipper. I see GGEM is showing a more significant snowfall friday night, but I don't think there's much other model support for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Latest NAM with about an inch around the metro tonight/tomorrow with clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Maybe an inch in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 12:13 PM, Snow88 said: Maybe an inch in spots Expand Agree. Dusting/coating to maybe an inch yea. It looked more impressive yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 12:25 PM, snowman19 said: Agree. Dusting/coating to maybe an inch yea. It looked more impressive yesterday Expand Historically these kinds of systems do most of their damage west of our area, and some on the extreme east end as the storm rapidly moves away. 1" would be the max I would expect and probably less. Geminid meteor shower tonight, best of the year, will be FAR more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/12/2017 at 5:44 PM, winterwx21 said: 12z RGEM gives northern Jersey, NYC and LI 1 to 2 inches with the clipper wednesday night into thursday morning. Hopefully we can pick up a little accumulation with this clipper. I see GGEM is showing a more significant snowfall friday night, but I don't think there's much other model support for that. Expand 12Z NAM now closer to a 1-2" )local 3" for most (especially northern) part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 RGEM with 1-2” of snow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 3:23 PM, dmillz25 said: RGEM with 1-2” of snow as well Expand Its a very potent clipper with very cold air to work with; of course some drying over the mountains, but I think someone in N NJ or S NY/SW CT sees 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Weak clipper but high ratio snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 But will it survive over the Pennsylvania mountains? Usually clippers will look nice on radar on its trek east then fizzle and break apart before reaching NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 3:54 PM, sferic said: But will it survive over the Pennsylvania mountains? Usually clippers will look nice on radar on its trek east then fizzle and break apart before reaching NYC/LI Expand It'll weaken (west of Apps, 3-6"/4-8"), but should hold on, with the chance of a little coastal enhancement in eastern areas, for 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I like the idea of a coating to an inch (with a few locally higher amounts) across the area. The bump up in snowfall on the RGEM + the GFS showing a slightly stronger system (994 mb at 12 hours on the 12z run vs. 995 mb at 18 hours on the 6z run) are favorable developments on the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Might be a surprise 1-3” east of the city if the clipper can enhance a little on the coast and the precip isn’t shredded too bad over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 4:23 PM, jm1220 said: Might be a surprise 1-3” east of the city if the clipper can enhance a little on the coast and the precip isn’t shredded too bad over the mountains. Expand I think this is gonna be a surprise 1-3" for both the interior ( ratios) and the east of the city due to some coastal enhancement. NAM/GFS/RGEM all show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 3:26 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Its a very potent clipper with very cold air to work with; of course some drying over the mountains, but I think someone in N NJ or S NY/SW CT sees 3". Expand These events almost always end up being a coating to an inch for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Tomorrow's clipper looks decent on latest HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 the trend with this system has been wetter and stronger. we also get lift in the DGZ so 20:1 ratios are possible. i think we get 1-3" with localized 4" amounts on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 5:34 PM, forkyfork said: the trend with this system has been wetter and stronger. we also get lift in the DGZ so 20:1 ratios are possible. i think we get 1-3" with localized 4" amounts on LI Expand Strongly agree. With a nighttime start the roads are going to be a mess everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 This for me is an annoying system. Not that I don’t want snow but it’s not well advertised so I’ll have to push my bosses to allow me to come in for snow removal. If they say no and we do get over an inch I’ll get a pankicked 6am phone call telling me to come in. I’d much rather a slightly bigger event so I can plan accordingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Something about Forky being bull**** on a threat gives off good vibes...bring on the snow EDIT: Above said Bull-ISH.....as in strongly in favor of. Not sure why it was filtered out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 5:34 PM, forkyfork said: the trend with this system has been wetter and stronger. we also get lift in the DGZ so 20:1 ratios are possible. i think we get 1-3" with localized 4" amounts on LI Expand Nice banding potential especially Long Island under the jet exit region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 18z NAM a bit juicier as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 7:57 PM, Ericjcrash said: 18z NAM a bit juicier as well. Expand Yes, NAM is a solid 1-3" for the entire area, with more possible in C/E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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