AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 NAO region is like a wall, it doesn't get demolished like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 At this moment there is a block over Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 Loop the 12z GFS... 500mb vortex goes right through southern Greenland without catching a breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 All that ridging around 60 north, something has to give. It takes a strong energy exchange from the poles to the mid Latitudes to maintain that much blocking, once that slows down the block is toast, or freezer burn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Scraping snow out of an atmospheric river is weird enough. I don't need to see anymore proof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Amped said: All that ridging around 60 north, something has to give. It takes a strong energy exchange from the poles to the mid Latitudes to maintain that much blocking, once that slows down the block is toast, or freezer burn. The highest anomalies are south of 60N I think the NAO holds and the storm in a few days trends stronger for the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 What we have is an overall contraction of heights towards the pole. The troughs are not as cold as they should be and the ridges are warmer than they should be. Why Northern Hemisphere temperatures are so elevated and snow-cover is not running above average during prime time. Most commoners will not pick up on the subtle difference. This has started to interrupt moisture transport and heat exchange, two precursors to abrupt climate change which may hit us in 5-10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 I understand what you're saying. This thread is major anomaly in short term models, in watching loops thousands of times, has never happened. At the same time, there is a low bombing off the northeast coast, the difference could be blizzard conditions for Maine and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 This isn't an ideal -NAO structure. There is ridging, but no strong 50/50 low or Azores low. In fact, there is +Anomolies over most of the Atlantic around 50N, which is not going to allow for retrograding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 The Greenland ridge should be more dominant vs southern stream. Then a few days later another lower latitude storm changes back to negative. I bet the 48hr panel doesn't verify at all, or if it does, there is +anomalies over Greenland around the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 GFS continues to be strange with how storms interact with NAO. The whole evolution is wacky through day 5-6. Expect big short term changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 The vortex is in Canada... then England 3 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 It verified, although a bit more uniform than what was shown on models. The New England storm also trended a few mb's stronger and east, but overall 500mb probably verified better than 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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