Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 This kind of cold isn’t modeled for Fri without pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2017 Author Share Posted December 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This kind of cold isn’t modeled for Fri without pack And why are you posting this in a storm discussion thread? It belongs in the main discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Man, that NAM is ugly for anyone in Mass hoping for a net gainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, moneypitmike said: Man, that NAM is ugly for anyone in Mass hoping for a net gainer. And it's the king at sniffing out CAD so that's not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's pretty cold Tuesday morning. I'm always skeptical of how fast models try erode it in the interior...and the further north you go, the harder. Seen it a million times where models have temps of like 22F at 12z and try to turn ORH to 40F by 18z when the isobars have a CAD signal...you can toss those numbers in the trash heap when that happens...on the coast? Sure. But not interior. Still need to figure out the surface reflection though because it makes a difference. 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s gonna be a massive CF near 95 up there. Classic. Probably 20 degree difference on either side. 31 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just read there AFD, There thinking a colder air mass will be in place except immediate coast. The money question, for me personally, is if Dover is far enough away from the coast and be on the right side of CF along I-95. The snow gradient up NH 16 turnpike will be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Man, that NAM is ugly for anyone in Mass hoping for a net gainer. Unless you count the net gained at the bottom of the Prudential building to catch bodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Unless you count the net gained at the bottom of the Hancock tower to catch bodies. LOL. We're all toast. Hopefully we'll be able to cover the brown grass again before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Yikes, the new run on NAM was even worse. Even 850 go above freezing for MA/S NH/S ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 I saw the 18Z NAM. Maybe I shouldn't be worried about good ratios up here but a taint instead... On to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 The 18z NAM was pretty awful for anyone that had marginal temps predicted from the 12z suite. Much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Even if CAD cold dome is stronger than modeled, you're still dealing with a warm nose at 850. Could be icy somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, WxBlue said: Yikes, the new run on NAM was even worse. Even 850 go above freezing for MA/S NH/S ME. The trends are not our friend. Let's punt now rather than sit around watching this SNE train wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 This past storm, the trend did well for many of us, especially on the western fringe. The trend with this storm has been a little warmer everyday. Can't win them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 ALY just pushing all the chips in the middle early on...trends say this may be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: This past storm, the trend did well for many of us, especially on the western fringe. The trend with this storm has been a little warmer everyday. Can't win them all. Can't be mad with 6" on the ground right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Looks like 18z RGEM now goes out to hr 54 on tropical tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said: ALY just pushing all the chips in the middle early on...trends say this may be optimistic. Was just talking about that with some friends. Even based on 12z runs, seems like they are on the higher end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like 18z RGEM now goes out to hr 54 on tropical tidbits If it's anything like the NAM, we may wish it didn't go past 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, Whineminster said: And it's the king at sniffing out CAD so that's not good More like the water boy who just got his notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: If it's anything like the NAM, we may wish it didn't go past 36. Meh, I would not get wrapped up in what it shows right now, Will already talked about the CAD and modeling no showing it until closer to the event, And i'm not going to sweat the Nam...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Meh, I would not get wrapped up in what it shows right now, Will already talked about the CAD and modeling no showing it until closer to the event, And i'm not going to sweat the Nam...........lol I think there could be a more exteneded period glaze in n ORH co relative to current modeling, but I am cooked. I didn't mention the ice threat last night, but will def. hit it in the final call tmw night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think there could be a more exteneded period glaze in n ORH co relative to current modeling, but I am cooked. I didn't mention the ice threat last night, but will def. hit in the final call tmw night. Yeah, You're in a tough spot for this one with that low track for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 28 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: ALY just pushing all the chips in the middle early on...trends say this may be optimistic. Lol at Pittsfield in the 6-8" range, I don't think you will even see that at the top peaks of the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Lol at Pittsfield in the 6-8" range, I don't think you will even see that at the top peaks of the Berkshires. Based on 18z runs they are pretty high, especially in the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, LoveSN+ said: Based on 18z runs they are pretty high, especially in the Hudson Valley. Yeah, maybe that map was posted pre-happy hour model runs. Let's see what transpires overnight but not good seeing models shift towards warm mid-level solutions this close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, maybe that map was posted pre-happy hour model runs. Let's see what transpires overnight but not good seeing models shift towards warm mid-level solutions this close to the event. It was posted at 3:30, so yes it was. And agreed. Slight tics north on the past few runs, not a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 18z GFS looks warmer than 12z. 850mb temps go above freezing up past ORH and into NH/ME coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Lol at Pittsfield in the 6-8" range, I don't think you will even see that at the top peaks of the Berkshires. 18z GFS actually isn't that far off for those areas just north of ALB from the foothills of the Adirondacks across into SVT... the GFS has bullseyes of 10-11" in those areas with 5-6" Pittsfield/North Adams. The ALY map just makes it look too widespread...I think there's more local variability there than the ALB map alludes to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Low is 948mb at 93hr gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Low is 948mb at 93hr gfs Congrats Flemish Cap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.