dendrite Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 When you avg 29” and get the occasional biggie to skew it, don’t expect to be involved in many events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 0z GEFS look nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Moved the snow measuring stuff to banter thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 EURO is running....blogging on this one now as I await the EURO, but not feeling it. Once the modeling pulled that crap of trying to develop it over or just north of us a few days ago, I was out on a major impactor. This situation is just a mess because not only are you trying to "arctic jet" your way to a faster development, but you also have an initial warm surge to contend with. Big events usually aren't messy....if you need a calculus equation to resolve a solution that will give you a lot of snow, then you probably aren't getting a lot of snow. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Gets going a hair more quickly, but thermals are about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 First Call http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/12/light-to-moderate-mixed-precipitation.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 I'm feeling pretty good about this one......certainly not a block buster, but I think GC could achieve warning criteria. We'll see if I still think that after the 12z runs. P/C is already calling for 1-2" just through Monday night. Regardless of the snow amounts, we'll be feeling the progged 19* highs on Wed and Thurs. Not bad for late autumn weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EURO is running....blogging on this one now as I await the EURO, but not feeling it. Once the modeling pulled that crap of trying to develop it over or just north of us a few days ago, I was out on a major impactor. This situation is just a mess because not only are you trying to "arctic jet" your way to a faster development, but you also have an initial warm surge to contend with. Big events usually aren't messy....if you need a calculus equation to resolve a solution that will give you a lot of snow, then you probably aren't getting a lot of snow. Period. Sig-worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Little quicker development on overnight runs means colder solution. Another couple of inches we add to the pack and then we do it again Thursday night and continued to mute any warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Yeah maybe. Not sold on a muted warm up yet with no rain, but it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah maybe. Not sold on a muted warm up yet with no rain, but it's close. Oh I didn’t mean no warmup or rain. Just not days of 50’s and 60’s like had been mentioned .. hopefully just a day or two of 40’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh I didn’t mean no warmup or rain. Just not days of 50’s and 60’s like had been mentioned .. hopefully just a day or two of 40’s Well, it was 'mentioned' because that's what had been modeled for several runs by multiple models in both op and ensembles. Hopefully, the evolution to a muted relaxation is sustained. In the meantime, let's enjoy deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Surreal perfection in winter tapestry out there this morning ... and, it's fragility will be exposed when this piece of schit comes in on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Surreal perfection in winter tapestry out there this morning ... and, it's fragility will be exposed when this piece of schit comes in on Tuesday. I know. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Some mesos basically keep NE MA through nrn CT below 32 it seems. Might even be sneaky flash freeze in ern MA where it goes above 32. Watch that low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know. Blah. Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, moneypitmike said: Glad we don't live there. Bump for when you smoke cirrus in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Bump for when you smoke cirrus in Jan. Don't you know it. I'll take it when I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Early call on this looks like 3-5” south of the pike and 4-8” north. I could see MPM to Hunch to KGay getting warning snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Early call on this looks like 3-5” south of the pike and 4-8” north. I could see MPM to Hunch to KGay getting warning snow that is kind of ambitious.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Early call on this looks like 3-5” south of the pike and 4-8” north. I could see MPM to Hunch to KGay getting warning snow That will be tough given that track...but I could see a little ice for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That will be tough given that track...but I could see a little ice for you. 2-4” might be better Pike south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: that is kind of ambitious.... Not ambitious if intake my rightful place as KGAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 2-4” might be better Pike south I think the demarcation is going to be largely SW-NE rather than the E-W Pike. Litchfield County can get in the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, moneypitmike said: I think the demarcation is going to be largely SW-NE rather than the E-W Pike. Yeah agree. Farther NW You is the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: I think the demarcation is going to be largely SW-NE rather than the E-W Pike. We'll be glad to be N of Rt 2 for this one. I'm thinking 2-4" paste here before drizzle. 3-6" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Surreal perfection in winter tapestry out there this morning ... and, it's fragility will be exposed when this piece of schit comes in on Tuesday. You thinking warm/mixing even in Ayer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 I'm liking tuesady now that i got a real good look at it, Can score big on these clippers with a explosive development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 850 0C line gets pretty far inland on GFS...precarious Nice cold shot after it pulls away. Flash freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: I'm liking tuesady now that i got a real good look at it, Can score big on these clippers with a explosive development. Could be very good for you as it winds up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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