Lava Rock Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I'm smelling an over performer, The cold trend is real, Temp, 16.4°FSn. 14.9Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Great news. The RAP is failing (4 runs in a row). Which means the HRRR is now failing too. Not like we need hi-res models for today or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I mentioned this in the other thread, but nice tucky into ext NE MA. WxBlue with his first NH wedgy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mentioned this in the other thread, but nice tucky into ext NE MA. WxBlue with his first NH wedgy. Isles of Shoals just flipped to NE and dropped to 34. He's in another world now. A once every few years event in NC becomes just another meh opportunity in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Isles of Shoals just flipped to NE and dropped to 34. He's in another world now. A once every few years event in NC becomes just another meh opportunity in NNE. I LOL'd at the HRRR later in Maine. How's that warm front gonna accelerate towards Tamarack's fanny. I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I feel like the secondary will just ride that CF feature in NE MA into the GOM. That should lock in the cooler temps near and esp north of ORH..maybe into LWM area. Just my guess. Might not be below 32 everywhere, but they won't sniff 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Nice LL cold off those northerly winds, It was dam cold over Northern Maine overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Nice LL cold off those northerly winds, It was dam cold over Northern Maine overnight. Arctic boundary. Attn: The Pope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Arctic boundary. Attn: The Pope. This should be fun when the heavier precip arrives early afternoon, Probably 1"+/hr stuff near that CF and into the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Little bulge in the isobars in the Gulf of Maine. The tuck is winning at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: This should be fun when the heavier precip arrives early afternoon, Probably 1"+/hr stuff near that CF and into the foothills. Nice--enjoy. No cold drain in GC today, ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 15.2 at GYX now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Arctic boundary. Attn: The Pope. Heh. We were all supposed to start cold and get snow up here weren’t we? I dunno maybe it’s just me but Mid 20’s imby in mid December at 7 a.m. isn’t exactly “arctic”. It’s certainly cold though, I’ve been on board with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Heh. We were all supposed to start cold and get snow up here weren’t we? I dunno maybe it’s just me but Mid 20’s imby in mid December at 7 a.m. isn’t exactly “arctic”. It’s certainly cold though, I’ve been on board with that... Well it's not always immediate from the boundary. But 24 there now with the potential to drop a degree or two before slowly going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 snow picking up a big, but still no big deal. .75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well it's not always immediate from the boundary. But 22 there now with the potential to drop a degree or two before slowly going up. More than anything, I see the primary wave has trended weaker, so we’re looking at a 993ish, into southern VT rather than 989 or so we saw yesterday. Less low level WAD, earlier redevelopment. I def think that’s cause for winter optimism for those on the margin like dendrite in northfield. Concord is a really tough call still. Best lift also appears north of there. I still think Concord is a few inches to slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: 15.2 at GYX now. what are your thoughts on the CON area? i noticed it went from a WS watch, to a WWA, and then to a warning. they usually get some mixing in this type of setup. 4-5" with a couple hours of IP and rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: More than anything, I see the primary wave has trended weaker, so we’re looking at a 993ish, into southern VT rather than 989 or so we saw yesterday. Less low level WAD, earlier redevelopment. I def think that’s cause for winter optimism for those on the margin like dendrite in northfield. Concord is a really tough call still. Best lift also appears north of there. I still think Concord is a few inches to slop. I think CON stays below 32. Maybe a brief post cold front bump before the real CAA moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well it's not always immediate from the boundary. But 22 there now with the potential to drop a degree or two before slowly going up. And as Ocean stated earlier, it’s the SE winds I’m worried about. Once the winds flip temps spike above freezing easily along the seas coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, SJonesWX said: what are your thoughts on the CON area? i noticed it went from a WS watch, to a WWA, and then to a warning. they usually get some mixing in this type of setup. 4-5" with a couple hours of IP and rain? The warning is mainly for the western part of the country where there is some higher terrain, so I wouldn't be expecting 6" But I think they can pull a 4-5" before any changeover. I really don't expect much in the way of mix though. By the time mid level warmth gets in, the dry slot will be on the doorstep. Maybe a snow to freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Temp is down to 15.6°F here now, -SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: And as Ocean stated earlier, it’s the SE winds I’m worried about. Once the winds flip temps spike above freezing easily along the seas coast. The key is getting that to happen. They're actually backing at the moment, and there are hints of at least a pressure weakness in the Gulf of Maine to help lock in that cold (44007 down to 27 now by the way). I'm not worried about mixing until I see those buoys go SE, and so far the coastal front is at least holding its place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Looks like some OES on radar about to move into the BXM area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 31 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Nice--enjoy. No cold drain in GC today, ftl. Thanks, Snow is starting to pick up in intensity here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 26 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The warning is mainly for the western part of the country where there is some higher terrain, so I wouldn't be expecting 6" But I think they can pull a 4-5" before any changeover. I really don't expect much in the way of mix though. By the time mid level warmth gets in, the dry slot will be on the doorstep. Maybe a snow to freezing drizzle. a few inches of snow to freezing drizzle would be a nice net gain. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Snow is looking good here this morning so far. I am eyeballing 1.5 so far as start the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 CF in MA is near 128 right now. Mid to upper 30s east of it and 29-32 just to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Guidance is definitely losing to CAD. Especially the further north you go. But even that 495 belt to central MA is stubbornly draining from the NE right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 30.6/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 44 minutes ago, dryslot said: Temp is down to 15.6°F here now, -SN 14.6. crappy snow growth, but it's early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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