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December 12, 2017 - Late Bloomer Coastal

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

Cold air is very entrenched and there is no warm advection taking place even over the waters south of Long Island, so would expect rapid development of a coastal center around 15z with primary low nw of ALB, that coastal would track across s.e. MA into Gulf of Maine, and with the limited warming time available, moderate snow likely over much of New England tomorrow, think amounts will over-perform model guidance, 8-12" VT and Hudson valley, parts of w MA, 4-8" most of CT and central MA even past ORH and into NH with 6-10" amounts common for NH and ME. Mixing near a BOS-EWB line and all rain southeast of that, some mixing east of Portland in coastal Maine but perhaps limited to outer coasts.

I just jumped into this forum discussion but I have been following the low closely for 2 days for friends in Ontario and it has all the hallmarks of a rapid coastal pressure jumper. But the Texas Tower buoy is currently showing no warming of surface layers from the 14 C ocean and -2 C dewpoints (south wind quite light). Suggests that the warm sector is going to be well east of there after the coastal forms. 

Possible freezing rain situation for a narrow band slightly inland from coast BOS to PWM, would say I-95 and 10-20 miles west perhaps, but oscillating with periods of snow. 

Yeah, Quebec City, lovely town in the winter, you should go to the Winter Carnival in February. Or any time.  

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Cold air is very entrenched and there is no warm advection taking place even over the waters south of Long Island, so would expect rapid development of a coastal center around 15z with primary low nw of ALB, that coastal would track across s.e. MA into Gulf of Maine, and with the limited warming time available, moderate snow likely over much of New England tomorrow, think amounts will over-perform model guidance, 8-12" VT and Hudson valley, parts of w MA, 4-8" most of CT and central MA even past ORH and into NH with 6-10" amounts common for NH and ME. Mixing near a BOS-EWB line and all rain southeast of that, some mixing east of Portland in coastal Maine but perhaps limited to outer coasts.

I just jumped into this forum discussion but I have been following the low closely for 2 days for friends in Ontario and it has all the hallmarks of a rapid coastal pressure jumper. But the Texas Tower buoy is currently showing no warming of surface layers from the 14 C ocean and -2 C dewpoints (south wind quite light). Suggests that the warm sector is going to be well east of there after the coastal forms. 

Possible freezing rain situation for a narrow band slightly inland from coast BOS to PWM, would say I-95 and 10-20 miles west perhaps, but oscillating with periods of snow. 

Yeah, Quebec City, lovely town in the winter, you should go to the Winter Carnival in February. Or any time.  

I can assure you that I 95 is not going to see an ice storm in mid December.

Good luck with this call....you will need it.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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29 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean it's worth noting that our buoys are just about due NE at this hour. So surface WAA has not started yet. 

I have to look at Buzzards Bay before I can find a wind of that is some south of due east.

Yea.

26.4/24

Cold.

We'll see what happens....but I think Roger AKA "Mr. DGEX" is a little aggressive.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea.

26.4/24

Cold.

We'll see what happens....but I think Roger AKA "Mr. DGEX" is a little aggressive.

I certainly like seeing AUG at 17/9 with a 30 degree wind.

I think the biggest winners relative to the warm forecast are going to be in the foothills from the Lakes Region into ME. They might be able to pull 6" off instead of a sloppy 2-3"

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

Cold air is very entrenched and there is no warm advection taking place even over the waters south of Long Island, so would expect rapid development of a coastal center around 15z with primary low nw of ALB, that coastal would track across s.e. MA into Gulf of Maine, and with the limited warming time available, moderate snow likely over much of New England tomorrow, think amounts will over-perform model guidance, 8-12" VT and Hudson valley, parts of w MA, 4-8" most of CT and central MA even past ORH and into NH with 6-10" amounts common for NH and ME. Mixing near a BOS-EWB line and all rain southeast of that, some mixing east of Portland in coastal Maine but perhaps limited to outer coasts.

I just jumped into this forum discussion but I have been following the low closely for 2 days for friends in Ontario and it has all the hallmarks of a rapid coastal pressure jumper. But the Texas Tower buoy is currently showing no warming of surface layers from the 14 C ocean and -2 C dewpoints (south wind quite light). Suggests that the warm sector is going to be well east of there after the coastal forms. 

Possible freezing rain situation for a narrow band slightly inland from coast BOS to PWM, would say I-95 and 10-20 miles west perhaps, but oscillating with periods of snow. 

Yeah, Quebec City, lovely town in the winter, you should go to the Winter Carnival in February. Or any time.  

lolol...I am still waiting on about 4 feet of your forecast snow

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