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December 12, 2017 - Late Bloomer Coastal

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Quebec City is 1 degree F now with a forecast for 8-16 inches and winds gusting to 50mph.  Been there many times and I am surprised more of our weenies don't go there for snow chases.

and it's an unbelievably beautiful city in the winter, especially over Christmas.  Just constant flurries and old cobblestone streets and quaint shops.  Best kept secret.  Love the place...

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Wednesday is the wild card day.  Big cyclonic flow from vertically stacked system... 

Mountains mixed with cold/wind/moisture and we'll see what happens.  

I'm thinking Wednesday could be the snowier day with those H85 temps giving great snow growth.  

 

Yeah, but we live in 2 different worlds. I agree that Wed will be snowy for you. I’m not counting on a backlash here that’ll be worse than what we get tomorrow. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I’d say likely for Scott of the north.

Saturated low levels, cold temps (DGZ is right in the max orographic lift zone), and favorable flow for the Greens (W as opposed to NW).

Yeah I could see the mountain getting like 3-5" synoptic snow tomorrow that will disappoint people because the news media keeps harping on heavy snows tomorrow.  Something like 0.4-0.5" QPF with crappy snow growth.  

Then on Wednesday the mountain gets 6-10" of upslope and people aren't disappointed anymore lol.  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah, but we live in 2 different worlds. I agree that Wed will be snowy for you. I’m not counting on a backlash here that’ll be worse than what we get tomorrow. 

I edited my post right after to say it probably isn't relevant to the posters on here...you're right but that's what I thought the Pope Bene was getting at.  More the ULL/cyclonic flow deal.  

Your game though is definitely tomorrow where I think mine is Wednesday. 

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wednesday is the wild card day.  Big cyclonic flow from vertically stacked system... 

Mountains mixed with cold/wind/moisture and we'll see what happens.  

I'm thinking Wednesday could be the snowier day with those H85 temps giving great snow growth.  

Of course this won't pertain to most posters here though.

 

You, Jspin and Alex can have your own little party.

Wednesday could be mildly interesting even down here possibly, maybe a few inches of high ratio fluff.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I edited my post right after to say it probably isn't relevant to the posters on here...you're right but that's what I thought the Pope Bene was getting at.  More the ULL/cyclonic flow deal.  

Your game though is definitely tomorrow where I think mine is Wednesday. 

I largely agree with this. And as an aside VT as a whole looks to be in a great spot for this.

Dendrites location is particularly tricky bc he’s on the margin for heavy front end snows, and then is on the eastern  edge of where the consistent back end H5 snows will end up. 

As for wintry appeal I’d pick Wed over tomorrow in northern NH and most of VT.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I've been pretty busy today but didn't notice... how far north are people thinking the mix line gets with this?  

The 3km NAM seemed more aggressive than I had in my mind.  No way it gets up near Sugarloaf.

IMG_7635.PNG.ee5be87ffde1fccbf6614fddab8cd0c1.PNG

IMG_7636.PNG.6b54adb7c34feb28b7e58b27300b01e6.PNG

 

Obviously, you know by now, it gets to the border ;) 

My new location is a tick better for these kind of setups. Where as downtown dxr wouldn’t see a flake. This area, which is at the tail end of the Litchfield hills, will see one or two. 

It’s the NNE show, though. Stowe will see 10” and Jay will report 16” with an avalanche watch. 

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully it plays out better than this Pats first half.

 

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ugh

You friggin’ Pats fans kill me. I just had a friend text me to say “hats off to your Dolphins. Looks like it’s their night.”  It was still in the second quarter and the score was only 13-7!  Pats fans might be the biggest whiners there are. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

You friggin’ Pats fans kill me. I just had a friend text me to say “hats off to your Dolphins. Looks like it’s their night.”  It was still in the second quarter and the score was only 13-7!  Pats fans might be the biggest whiners there are. 

Most of us are seasoned enough to realize when they are playing like sh it.  

Just like I’m not waving Pom poms for tomorrow.  Should be good for you. 20-10 now

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mreaves said:

 

You friggin’ Pats fans kill me. I just had a friend text me to say “hats off to your Dolphins. Looks like it’s their night.”  It was still in the second quarter and the score was only 13-7!  Pats fans might be the biggest whiners there are. 

lol. You should of seem them in the first half of the SB, while this Jets fan believed/called it. wtf!? how akward. 

 

 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mreaves said:

 

You friggin’ Pats fans kill me. I just had a friend text me to say “hats off to your Dolphins. Looks like it’s their night.”  It was still in the second quarter and the score was only 13-7!  Pats fans might be the biggest whiners there are. 

lol...all I said was that they played a lousy half. Def not over yet, but 20-10 now. @MIA has historically been a disaster. 

Anyway, nice snowier trends on the early mesos this evening.

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

He got whiner out of my ugh......lol. Yeah, Not bad.

Haha,no not just you. It’s a running joke about my buddy at work. He is the most worrisome fan ever.  They could be playing the Browns and he’ll say that he’s worried because the third string long snapper is injured and the Browns seem like they’re starting to put it together. 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

26/25.   Radar starting to come together in W NY and overcome that ragged look.  Maybe a pretty good thump here before changeover?   By pretty good I mean 2-3" then ice, ice baby with no net loss to snow cover. 

I hate an icy driveway but have grown somewhat fond of these kitchen sink events that seem inherent in this corner of MA. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted 
Bump them up.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Update...
Quick update to further tweak temperatures, dew points and the
near term wind forecast. A cold front crossed the region today,
allowing for temperatures to drop rather quickly in the
mountains. Have lowered readings in the mountains by several
degrees based on current observations and trends. Thereafter,
clouds increase and thicken, slowing any radiational cooling.

There is a significant amount of cold air to our north with PQI
as the coldest reading late this evening at 9 below zero. A
northeast flow has develop across the interior and some of this
cold air will be funneled southward.

00Z guidance arriving with a slightly colder scenario as well.
The coastal front should be well established by daybreak
Tuesday. Have upped snowfall amounts in the Midcoast region and
the rest of the coast will need to be examined for potentially
higher snowfall accumulations if trends continue.
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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Couple thoughts about the event:

For starters, there just isn't that much warm air aloft. While the mid level centers aren't squeezing south of the region, they are deepening quickly Tuesday. So it's not like a flood over warmth to the St. Lawrence. This is starting to look a little like a rain or snow situation for NNE. South of southern NH there will be 850 mb warmth, so a better chance of a mix down there.

Also the clusters of ensemble members that have a favorable farther southeast/stronger surface low also feature a stronger trailing wave (which ends up being the clipper for the MS Valley Wednesday). That wave is coming onshore in BC right now, early indications that the GFS and Euro were too strong with the wave at CYZT. But that wasn't a good sample of the main shortwave. I would think we want to see 12z raobs at least as strong as the models. 

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