December 12, 2017 - Late Bloomer Coastal

[HoarfrostHubb]

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[DomNH]

My 2-5'' in the Merrimack Valley south of CON is too high. I'd be surprised if we saw any more than like 1-2'' before the taint arrives now that I look closer. Getting less excited by the moment. 

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Real talk, the mid shift will admit a cold bias climo was baked into the forecast. We know the rules in these events: the surface cold hangs on tougher than expected but the sleet (warmth aloft) is also closer than expected.

If I had to do it over again I might lower QPF, especially in the 18-00z period tomorrow. I think we were a little high with that dry slot racing in.

That being said, I could see a 2-3 period of 1”/hr+ snowfall before a flip given the strong f-gen that should lead the warmth. That could give many 3-5” before taint and push warnings if someone hangs onto cold longer.  

Thanks for your frankness.  Still not a bad outcome in the interior, if we can get that quick dump and then dryslot.  It'll freeze up solid Tues night and Wed and that is our base.  Not worth riding over though from Dover to Boscawen I don't think.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

My 2-5'' in the Merrimack Valley south of CON is too high. I'd be surprised if we saw any more than like 1-2'' before the taint arrives now that I look closer. Getting less excited by the moment. 

A couple cycles ago, there is a really nice slug of lift that moved through pike region up to your 'hood during the early morning hours...but now most of that is further north in the initial stages. So we're stuck with mostly light stuff while the atmosphere still supports snow.

[Sugarloaf1989]

WWA for the Springfield area, litterely 4 miles north of where I live. NWS has freezing rain until 2pm tomorrow on the p/c map for my location.

[OceanStWx]

The HRRRX (huge caveats there of course) is interesting. It really shows how this is looking more like a boundary layer torch. 850s don’t kiss 0C until very late in the event, no warmth at 700. So it’s all low level warming.

Obviously we don’t want that, but it goes to show you how models could bust if they don’t handle the low level cold well.

On it’s face I would call the HRRR a net gain/neutral vs. a net loss.

[dryslot]

Could be 2", Could be 8" here.

[ineedsnow]

25 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

WWA for the Springfield area, litterely 4 miles north of where I live. NWS has freezing rain until 2pm tomorrow on the p/c map for my location.

Mass line is about 30 seconds driving from my house.. First street in ct lol

[Whineminster]

57 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Next

4" for us, net gain

[Sugarloaf1989]

My P/C forecast now has 1-2.5" of snow for tomorrow morning, up from less than one inch.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

My P/C forecast now has 1-2.5" of snow for tomorrow morning, up from less than one inch.

I'll take the under on that.

[Sugarloaf1989]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'll take the under on that.

I agree, probably more freezing rain than anything.

[bobbutts]

So what's the forecast for Concord area?  1-2" and switch to rain? 

Got a winter storm watch and 4-8" on the p+c, which I guess is tossed. 

[ineedsnow]

12 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I agree, probably more freezing rain than anything.

Thinking an inch or less here.   .10 of zr then rain

[Damage In Tolland]

No one in CT is getting any snow 

[dryslot]

WWA here for 3-5" of snow, That's reasonable.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No one in CT is getting any snow 

 I don't think anyone in MA is either.  Be interesting to see how long the FZRA lasts here.  

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I don't think anyone in MA is either.  Be interesting to see how long the FZRA lasts here.  

You’ll get an inch up there and never get above 33

[DomNH]

Winter Storm Watch to no headline at all. Pretty much sums up this event. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, DomNH said:

Winter Storm Watch to no headline at all. Pretty much sums up this event. 

This event has trended worse for like 4 straight model cycles and isn't showing any sign of a last minute trend back the other way like we sometimes see. Too bad because that could help a lot of folks. Guess we can't win them all...hopefully the CAD overperforms.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Winter Storm Watch to no headline at all. Pretty much sums up this event. 

Happens

Which Is why CP Climo blows

[jbenedet]

I think Wednesday morning will be a lot more interesting in VT and NH (maybe even parts of NW MA) than anything we see tomorrow. With that huge 500 mb Low diving in overhead, and UL heights crashing, I could see widespread advisory level light to moderate snows and gusty winds (local squalls) for a period of 6-12 hrs well to the southwest of the surface low as it moves into northern ME and southern Quebec. 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Winter Storm Watch to no headline at all. Pretty much sums up this event. 

I still think commute could suck, even with an inch of slop. May end up needing advisories anyway. 

We’ll see, I’ll have all night to monitor trends.

[Lava Rock]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

WWA here for 3-5" of snow, That's reasonable.

wonder if it'll get cut back more.

[weathafella]

Looking forward to rain dissolving the road salt-poor doggy!

[DomNH]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I still think commute could suck, even with an inch of slop. May end up needing advisories anyway. 

We’ll see, I’ll have all night to monitor trends.

Yeah if it comes in as a quick burst at like 10 or 11z forget it. 12z GFS looked a tick earlier with onset to me. 

[tamarack]

GYX seems less impressed with the gfs warm streak.  They've warned my zone and points north, while just to the south is advisory.  P&C adds to 5-11", but the probability numbers have a hiccup, with Farmington still at 13% for under 1" while places south and east have a much lower number.  Of course, the site still labels that product as "experimental". 

Given the above, my guess for our low elevation location at the south edge of the warned area is 4-6" followed by some IP/ZR, and maybe a skiff of flakes on the backside.  Worst conditions appear to be during my morning commute.  Discretion is the better part of valor.

[Sugarloaf1989]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No one in CT is getting any snow 

Ever again.

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

GYX seems less impressed with the gfs warm streak.  They've warned my zone and points north, while just to the south is advisory.  P&C adds to 5-11", but the probability numbers have a hiccup, with Farmington still at 13% for under 1" while places south and east have a much lower number.  Of course, the site still labels that product as "experimental". 

Given the above, my guess for our low elevation location at the south edge of the warned area is 4-6" followed by some IP/ZR, and maybe a skiff of flakes on the backside.  Worst conditions appear to be during my morning commute.  Discretion is the better part of valor.

The probabilities haven’t been updated yet, but they did have a smaller spread near the coast, which is why the probabilities for at least 1” are higher.

Moral of the story, I still don’t like this product.

[ma blizzard]

still some signs of a mini cold tuck on guidance, especially for central / NE MA tmrw afternoon .. probably not that important, but could mean temps stay in the mid 30s or something like that which would help limit snowfall melt