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December 12, 2017 - Late Bloomer Coastal

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

A big of hyperbole if there is 7"+ on the ground and the high temp is 40F. 

He prob meant any new snow that falls...it'll likely be like an inch and then gets washed away....but yeah, the snow from this weekend is not getting washed away in N ORH county. That's an easy call.

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted

Now that I'm spending about 1/2 my time up north, I'm starting to appreciate these types of systems. My driveway in Lowell is a sh!tshow. Truck slid into the street overnight (by the ange of my truck hanging 1/2 way out the driveway it just looks like I had a really drunk night out). Hopefully things on pavement melt and I'm not dealing with any ice. The soundings up north on GFS show it all as snow. So it's possible I could get a foot. This past weekend storm was epic watching it pile up on the deck. Late December looking warm though. :/

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

does anyone still  have 7" at this point?  decimation is in store for most. im not saying those areas will go to bare ground, but it will be ugly for all.

Better than brown and a good base for anything frozen in the future. Much brighter at night here in the city--especially when moon and city lights combine. Its just a matter of half empty or half full. I've gotten old enough to be half full.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

Better than brown and a good base for anything frozen in the future. Much brighter at night here in the city--especially when moon and city lights combine. Its just a matter of half empty or half full. I've gotten old enough to be half full.

a lot of folks will be brown i think..

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

Better than brown and a good base for anything frozen in the future. Much brighter at night here in the city--especially when moon and city lights combine. Its just a matter of half empty or half full. I've gotten old enough to be half full.

Yeah I'll take a 3-4" glacier that took on some rain over bare ground or patches...it's not even debatable for me. Easy call. Any snow we get later in the week can just add to it rather than starting over.

 

I don't see this as a wipe out for a lot of the interior...the coast will be wiped clean I think. This isn't like one of those 56F cutters that dumps warm rain...it will be prob like 4 to 5 tenths of QPF...some of it frozen at the onset and then most of the rain will occur in the 30s...there will be a spike into the 37-40F range (maybe lower 40s a little further SE in the interior) but it doesn't last all that long.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Everyone looking at front end but I’m thinking CCB could be best part for NNE folks. We should be watching to see if this isn’t a “late bloomer” after all. Latest guidance is pointing to the title of this topic being a misnomer...

I don't see much of a CCB in New England on this...it looks like it is confined to Quebec.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Any flash freezing occuring after it sweeps through?

I don't think so...it will get cold quickly, but since it is drying out rapidly behind the front, we shouldn't see a lot of standing moisture staying around...obviously any puddles will refreeze pretty good, but roads should dry off for the most part.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see much of a CCB in New England on this...it looks like it is confined to Quebec.

Verbatim the goods are in Quebec. But I can see light to moderate snows adding up to 6” or so in VT, NNH on the back side of this.

Can’t deny the trend has been relentless to have this bomb out earlier.... I’m mostly looking at the CCB with interest down here only if current trends continue, and we see the S/W dig further south...

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512high

512high

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think so...it will get cold quickly, but since it is drying out rapidly behind the front, we shouldn't see a lot of standing moisture staying around...obviously any puddles will refreeze pretty good, but roads should dry off for the most part.

ORH, just getting caught about can you give an approx. amount of rain after change over? .10? .25? thanks

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

yes indeedy especially SWCT and NCT you to Woodstock, if we are "fukky"

JB sure thinks the Squalls make it to the coast of New England too...says it's a very unstable set-up conducive for the lake effect snows/and squalls to ramp up right to the Eastern sea board.    

 

I'll take a nice squall to coat it up if that's possible.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
Just now, WinterWolf said:

JB sure thinks the Squalls make it to the coast of New England too...says it's a very unstable set-up conducive for the lake effect snows/and squalls to ramp up right to the Eastern sea board.    

 

I'll take a nice squall to coat it up if that's possible.

T1: Temperature in the 35 mb closest to the surface (check)
T5: Temperature at 800 mb (check)
R1: Relative Humidity in the 35 mb closest to the surface(check)
Lifted Index: Instability index calculated by lifting parcels from the
surface to  500 mb and subtracting the temperature of its environment
from the parcel temperature. (check)

 

2017121112_NAMNST_041_41.95,-72.49_severe_ml.png

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

You really think CON will be a mostly rain event?  I hope you are wrong lol, as I will be up at our new house in Boscawen.  I wonder why GYX is going mostly snow there?  Or at least going 5-8?  My guess is:  1)  fresh arctic air coming in today  2) heavy burst of precip early in the event before warmer air can overwhelm.  3) Oceanwx earlier comments about N ageostrophic winds  4) climo which would suggest an earlier energy transfer  5)  snow pack which could alter the storm track a bit.  They are usually quite good on the climo here, but we'll see!  Still live in Dover part time but want to spend the night in Boscawen to enjoy the snow tomorrow (hopefully).

Real talk, the mid shift will admit a cold bias climo was baked into the forecast. We know the rules in these events: the surface cold hangs on tougher than expected but the sleet (warmth aloft) is also closer than expected.

If I had to do it over again I might lower QPF, especially in the 18-00z period tomorrow. I think we were a little high with that dry slot racing in.

That being said, I could see a 2-3 period of 1”/hr+ snowfall before a flip given the strong f-gen that should lead the warmth. That could give many 3-5” before taint and push warnings if someone hangs onto cold longer.  

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Not what i was looking for, I hope this is one of its bad runs...........:lol: 12z GFS ticked a bit colder at 12z so who knows.

Yup.  Only 12 consecutive mid-30s hours for FVE instead of 15.  AUG 2m at 46 and RUM at 38 during heaviest qpf - not a good sign.  My CAD location has already seen 3 low-30s RA events this fall; why not one more, perhaps prefaced this time by ZR.  (And for additional comedy, check 12z gfs for day 14 - 12/25.)

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