mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, WxBlue said: Yeah, I'm confused about GYX's forecast for Dover. Can't really see 3-5" happening here due to the reasoning above. I'd love to be surprised, however. Brian referenced the 6Z RGEM, but they presumably had access to that before their discussion. Is there optimism based on American models or just climo and pattern recognition? Brian is really solid on pattern recognition for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: maybe a little ice then rain GC? Tia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Will not posting tells you all you need to know lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Maybe the 12z 3KM Nam will be right, That was a colder run then 06z and the folks on the fence could benefit from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will not posting tells you all you need to know lol so u feared. not even Steve is offering words of encouragement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Seems like a really interesting storm for me. I'm 40 miles north of Concord and 20 miles north of Brian. I'm kind of guessing at the upper level warmth just about gets too me and then get shut off. So will I stay all snow who knows but whatever happens I don't see any rain just some probably sleet or freezing rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: Seems like a really interesting storm for me. I'm 40 miles north of Concord and 20 miles north of Brian. I'm kind of guessing at the upper level warmth just about gets too me and then get shut off. So will I stay all snow who knows but whatever happens I don't see any rain just some probably sleet or freezing rain at the end. GYX likes 6-10 for you I think. Even the warming runs you are probably mostly safe I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: so u feared. not even Steve is offering words of encouragement. You will get more than anyone else in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Kev, you won't sniff 50s. Just into the 40s and rain at the high point (or low point depending on how you view it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Liking a 2-5'' thump in this area before it turns into a complete mess. Worst events have to be advisory snow to steady rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: Maybe the 12z 3KM Nam will be righ t, That was a colder run then 06z and the folks on the fence could benefit from it. Looking between 19z and 20z, it now pops secondary in a position that cools ORH back to MHT Several degrees and has a nice CCB Like feature associated Most want to see THIS feature on the euro and future high res runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, DomNH said: Liking a 2-5'' thump in this area before it turns into a complete mess. Worst events have to be advisory snow to steady rain. Quite a good discussion in here about how this ends up for CON north. I assume if you are 2-5 MHT then you are probably 4-6 CON north?/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looking between 19z and 20z, it now pops secondary in a position that cools ORH back to MHT Several degrees and has a nice CCB Like feature associated Just unfortunate that we cant get this just a few more tics to the S before secondary development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 30 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: GC? Tia Congrats 2-4 then lookout for lots of snow squalls Midnight Wed Am on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Well, We need to see if the models are underplaying the CAD up here, I really would like to see a weaker primary coming across the lower lakes to get this south some before secondary development, This is where we could really use a couple tics south............. GFS has trended warmer (and wetter) every run since yesterday morning, though they almost always miss on CAD. 06z run has rain all the way to FVE and 40B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Quite a good discussion in here about how this ends up for CON north. I assume if you are 2-5 MHT then you are probably 4-6 CON north?/ I haven't looked super closely but I could see 3-6'' in the CON area. I wouldn't be too confident on warning amounts south of the Lakes Region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Our biggest killer in this system is the northern stream caught up with the lead shortwave...if it stayed a bit more spaced, then we'd have better secondary development. I still think the low levels will probably CAD more than models have. But our shot at a couple inches of snow in SNE outside of far NW area is diminishing because the best forcing is north while we are still plenty cold enough. Too bad because a couple inches would prevent much melting of the snowfall from this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats 2-4 then lookout for lots of snow squalls Midnight Wed Am on 2" for me 4" for him. My hood is king of cad in SNE so will be interesting to see how much we glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Don’t mind the melt, yet. It’s not snowpack season until after the grinch steals Christmas. It’s NNE turn, solid event to really kick ski season into high gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Correct me if I'm wrong, but not much of a cold air drain on this one. Basically just overrunning until we mix out. I"ll be surprised if anyone sees much ice at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 RGEM has .41 ice/sleet for Fryeburg Me adjacent Conway with 9 inches of snow on top (Kuchy) Deep winter look there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 That bit of glaze in CT is at the worst possible time, watch it Tuesday Am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but not much of a cold air drain on this one. Basically just overrunning until we mix out. I"ll be surprised if anyone sees much ice at all. It is in situ CAD. We start with cold air and it take a while to erode....we aren't getting fresh cold from the north during the event....if we were, it would be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Reggie is still decent for net gain in the great NW territory of SNE. Me thinks I better plan on working from home tomorrow due to kid's school being cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Reggie says to hoist the flood watches for Chris and Jeff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Reggie says to hoist the flood watches for Chris and Jeff. Not what i was looking for, I hope this is one of its bad runs........... 12z GFS ticked a bit colder at 12z so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 0:15 AM, CoastalWx said: That's not how it works though. I know the NWS has COCORAHs rules too...but some of those are head scratchers when it comes to melting and ptype. Nice looking in-situ CAD tomorrow morning. Models likely way too fast scouring out cold in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Nice looking in-situ CAD tomorrow morning. Models likely way too fast scouring out cold in the valley. Yeah, bare in Tolland and nice cover in the valley?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah, bare in Tolland and nice cover in the valley?? Oh how we pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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