December 12, 2017 - Late Bloomer Coastal

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I dunno. Hope so. Was nice to see NAM cool off .. and Reggie keeps it in the 30’s. But I still worry 

Reggie furnaces you too.

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

??

Longitude ftw?

Probably  burst coming in before flip to ice and rain. Could be some ice in CT prior to torch.

[mahk_webstah]

37 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Sure, expect that low level CAD to overperform, but that’s a sub 990 primary running into southern VT. Hard to see how most of us excluding  northern VT, Northern NH and Northern Maine don’t get flooded with warmth in this, verbatim. I think the initial low level CAD is likely underdone, but the eventual low level WAD is likely also underdone with that primary track/intensity...

We really need the secondary to pop sooner and further southeast to prevent a torch outside of the aforementioned areas...Not saying it can’t still trend that way, but we are running out of time. 

At least there is high confidence that this will be a 6”+ snowfall for most resort locales in the greens and whites.

Well you might be right, but GYX seems pretty adamant that there will be a dump of several inches before any changeover when you get into interior SNH.  May not save Dover (4" then a changeover?), but it looks to be okay for CON n&w for 5-8.  Perhaps their snowy forecast is due to a fresh push of arctic air coming this afternoon?

[Damage In Tolland]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably  burst coming in before flip to ice and rain. Could be some ice in CT prior to torch.

Will def take under on any torch 

[Baroclinic Zone]

I like the C/N VT area for this one over to N NH and  N ME for the highest totals.  That's a pretty strong primary so I do see this being difficult to keep all frozen for a lot of areas.

[dryslot]

Well, We need to see if the models are underplaying the CAD up here, I really would like to see a weaker primary coming across the lower lakes to get this south some before secondary development, This is where we could really use a couple tics south.............

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will def take under on any torch 

It's gonna be hard for CT to keep the cold. This will be one of those deals where you want to be further north towards ORH and Hubby. The RAP is very cold there...it tickles them with that arctic boundary.  Hubby would like the RAP.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's gonna be hard for CT to keep the cold. This will be one of those deals where you want to be further north towards ORH and Hubby. The RAP is very cold there...it tickles them with that arctic boundary.  Hubby would like the RAP.

I think it’ll get into the 40’s briefly but I don’t call that a torch unless it leaves me with grass 

[codfishsnowman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's gonna be hard for CT to keep the cold. This will be one of those deals where you want to be further north towards ORH and Hubby. The RAP is very cold there...it tickles them with that arctic boundary.  Hubby would like the RAP.

any chance it gets breezy and mild for a few hours with no precip b4 the deep freeze to minimize black ice etc?

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well you might be right, but GYX seems pretty adamant that there will be a dump of several inches before any changeover when you get into interior SNH.  May not save Dover (4" then a changeover?), but it looks to be okay for CON n&w for 5-8.  Perhaps their snowy forecast is due to a fresh push of arctic air coming this afternoon?

Front is there, but calling it "arctic" sounds overzealous to me. Air mass is cold, but not arctic level, imo.

5-8" sounds high to me for CON unless we see changes in the consensus further southeast going forward. Right now I like a few inches to rain there. For 6"+ totals want to be Winni, North, imo.

What I'd really prefer is this to just bomb over Augusta, before heading north then maybe we could score a hit from the CCB. Unless this happens, which is unlikely, I really don't like this one for us given the strength of the primary and the strong dynamics associated with it. I think my area could get near 50F tomorrow afternoon...You're obviously in a much better spot to avoid the torch, but not a mainly rain event....

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

5-8" sounds high to me for CON. I like a few inches to rain there. For 6"+ totals want to be Winni, North, imo.

What I'd really prefer is this to just bomb over Augusta, before heading north then maybe we could score a hit from the CCB. Unless this happens, which is unlikely, I really don't like this one for us given the strength of the primary and the strong dynamics associated with it. I think my area could get near 50F tomorrow afternoon...You're obviously in a much better spot to avoid the torch, but not a mainly rain event....

You really think CON will be a mostly rain event?  I hope you are wrong lol, as I will be up at our new house in Boscawen.  I wonder why GYX is going mostly snow there?  Or at least going 5-8?  My guess is:  1)  fresh arctic air coming in today  2) heavy burst of precip early in the event before warmer air can overwhelm.  3) Oceanwx earlier comments about N ageostrophic winds  4) climo which would suggest an earlier energy transfer  5)  snow pack which could alter the storm track a bit.  They are usually quite good on the climo here, but we'll see!  Still live in Dover part time but want to spend the night in Boscawen to enjoy the snow tomorrow (hopefully).

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

any chance it gets breezy and mild for a few hours with no precip b4 the deep freeze to minimize black ice etc?

I don't see a big breezy setup prior to fropa for you. Maybe 40s and S-SE flow there before fropa. They'll probably be a lot of water and puddles around from melting snow, that ices up quick.

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

You really think CON will be a mostly rain event?  I hope you are wrong lol, as I will be up at our new house in Boscawen.  I wonder why GYX is going mostly snow there?  Or at least going 5-8?  My guess is:  1)  fresh arctic air coming in today  2) heavy burst of precip early in the event before warmer air can overwhelm.  3) Oceanwx earlier comments about N ageostrophic winds  4) climo which would suggest an earlier energy transfer  5)  snow pack which could alter the storm track a bit.  They are usually quite good on the climo here, but we'll see!  Still live in Dover part time but want to spend the night in Boscawen to enjoy the snow tomorrow (hopefully).

I certainly get the argument for snowier but I think many of us are thinking last year--when we had several re developer events with weak UL dynamics-- as a baseline for what will happen this time. The dynamics feeding into this primary are intense and will allow it to intensify ~sub 990 mb into Southern VT and act to delay the redevelopment (if it happens at all).

[Ginx snewx]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will def take under on any torch 

If I were to have to forecast for your hill top this what I would surmise. You drop to near 22 tonight, clouds increase over night. Very light winds and flurries begin around day break, a good burst of snow lays down 1-2 inches of snow then you transition to a brief period of freezing drizzle and sleet, light winds for a while become stronger s/e and a period of steadier rain comes in, temps climb to the upper 30s then the rain shuts off, you briefly mix to the low 40s before a cold front slowly drops you through the 30s to freezing by midnight. Strong winds and heavy snow squalls  Wed after midnight with Windex squall possible at any time Wed temps falling all day

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Front is there, but calling it "arctic" sounds overzealous to me. Air mass is cold, but not arctic level, imo.

5-8" sounds high to me for CON unless we see changes in the consensus further southeast going forward. Right now I like a few inches to rain there. For 6"+ totals want to be Winni, North, imo.

What I'd really prefer is this to just bomb over Augusta, before heading north then maybe we could score a hit from the CCB. Unless this happens, which is unlikely, I really don't like this one for us given the strength of the primary and the strong dynamics associated with it. I think my area could get near 50F tomorrow afternoon...You're obviously in a much better spot to avoid the torch, but not a mainly rain event....

to me winds are way too light for that kind of warmth, maybe prefrontal mix but 50, I will take the under

[mahk_webstah]

Yesterday they said arctic but today, just cold front.  Another factor is clear skies this eve and fresh cold air over snowpack.  My bet is 4-6 in a warm advection burst (for me near CON) and then fading out to light snizzle or drizzle.  The intensity of the primary should bring a good warm advection burst, SWFE style.  But i'm not a met lol

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If I were to have to forecast for your hill top this what I would surmise. You drop to near 22 tonight, clouds increase over night. Very light winds and flurries begin around day break, a good burst of snow lays down 1-2 inches of snow then you transition to a brief period of freezing drizzle and sleet, light winds for a while become stronger s/e and a period of steadier rain comes in, temps climb to the upper 30s then the rain shuts off, you briefly mix to the low 40s before a cold front slowly drops you through the 30s to freezing by midnight. Strong winds and heavy snow squalls  Wed after midnight with Windex squall possible at any time Wed temps falling all day

Hope you right man. I’m hearing talk of 45-50 for 6-10 hours . If that happens with wind, back to fooking grass . 

I just don’t think we see much snow in CT except far NW hills. 

[moneypitmike]

mby post.....how muvh torch in gc?  sorry....travelling

[dendrite]

I could see a period of PL/ZR up here as well if that H85-H9 layer starts pushing +1C while the sfc wedge holds on for dear life. Either way...it looks like snow to some form of glop that will be a mess to clean up.

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hope you right man. I’m hearing talk of 45-50 for 6-10 hours . If that happens with wind, back to fooking grass . 

I just don’t think we see much snow in CT except far NW hills. 

I just don't see how the NAM is eroding the LL temps at your locale with 5 mph east winds, its torching 925 down with little inflow. IDK man watching this and kind of knowing your climo, something is not adding up

[Whineminster]

I just hope to get plowable out of this

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I could see a period of PL/ZR up here as well if that H85-H9 layer starts pushing +1C while the sfc wedge holds on for dear life. Either way...it looks like snow to some form of glop that will be a mess to clean up.

Decision point for GYX soon re warnings.  They were very zealous in their discussion this morning re near warning level snows for CON and north.  A several hour thump of 1"/hour snow would be nice tomorrow morn.

[Ginx snewx]

3K NAm has a secondary 991 south of RI, that would bode well for Dendrite and the Pope

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I just don't see how the NAM is eroding the LL temps at your locale with 5 mph east winds, its torching 925 down with little inflow. IDK man watching this and kind of knowing your climo, something is not adding up

Based on past experiences.. I think it hits 42-43. The weak secondary fooks most of us though. I just don’t see how it’s into the 50’s like some models have. I’m mentally preparing for disaster though . Hopefukky Friday happens 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Decision point for GYX soon re warnings.  They were very zealous in their discussion this morning re near warning level snows for CON and north.  A several hour thump of 1"/hour snow would be nice tomorrow morn.

Was it Chris that was posting about how he liked the RGEM 2m temps and how cold it was for us? I don't remember. Anyway, the 6z RGEM was much warmer so I think the warmer look will pan out. The CAD probably overperforms to some extent, but we'll probably climb to a 34F rain at some point. Dover OTOH is probably toast.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Based on past experiences.. I think it hits 42-43. The weak secondary fooks most of us though. I just don’t see how it’s into the 50’s like some models have. I’m mentally preparing for disaster though . Hopefukky Friday happens 

Hopefukky? lol

[jbenedet]

16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Yesterday they said arctic but today, just cold front.  Another factor is clear skies this eve and fresh cold air over snowpack.  My bet is 4-6 in a warm advection burst (for me near CON) and then fading out to light snizzle or drizzle.  The intensity of the primary should bring a good warm advection burst, SWFE style.  But i'm not a met lol

For your area, I agree on the WAD burst but I think it flips quickly to mix then rain, but not before a few inches fall...

[Cold Miser]

33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If I were to have to forecast for your hill top this what I would surmise. You drop to near 22 tonight, clouds increase over night. Very light winds and flurries begin around day break, a good burst of snow lays down 1-2 inches of snow then you transition to a brief period of freezing drizzle and sleet, light winds for a while become stronger s/e and a period of steadier rain comes in, temps climb to the upper 30s then the rain shuts off, you briefly mix to the low 40s before a cold front slowly drops you through the 30s to freezing by midnight. Strong winds and heavy snow squalls  Wed after midnight with Windex squall possible at any time Wed temps falling all day

What are your thoughts for our area?

...and Norwich area too?

[WxBlue]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Sure, expect that low level CAD to overperform, but that’s a sub 990 primary running into southern VT. Hard to see how most of us excluding  northern VT, Northern NH and Northern Maine don’t get flooded with warmth in this, verbatim. I think the initial low level CAD is likely underdone, but the eventual low level WAD is likely also underdone with that primary track/intensity...

We really need the secondary to pop sooner and further southeast to prevent a torch outside of the aforementioned areas...Not saying it can’t still trend that way, but we are running out of time. 

At least there is high confidence that this will be a 6”+ snowfall for most resort locales in the greens and whites.

 

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well you might be right, but GYX seems pretty adamant that there will be a dump of several inches before any changeover when you get into interior SNH.  May not save Dover (4" then a changeover?), but it looks to be okay for CON n&w for 5-8.  Perhaps their snowy forecast is due to a fresh push of arctic air coming this afternoon?

Yeah, I'm confused about GYX's forecast for Dover. Can't really see 3-5" happening here due to the reasoning above. I'd love to be surprised, however.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Cold Miser said:

What are your thoughts for our area?

...and Norwich area too?

maybe a little ice then rain