Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Fire it up.....! Models coming into agreement on our next storm potential. S/W coming out of Canada looks to spawn a coastal somewhere in the area. Details still to be ironed out with northern areas favored right now for the highest totals but western areas will see snow prior to coastal development. If we can get this S/W to dig further S and develop sooner it would bring southern areas into the game as well. Here are the GFS and Euro 500mb images valid for same timeframe. You'll see the Euro is a bit further S&E with the s/w coming out of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 18z GFS looks like a little thump for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 It needs work ... "Late" is probably the good adjective for that cluster f ... The GFS has really been hammering this somewhat unusual DTX-BUF-PWM sort of trajectory with that thing, which cuts it right through the nascent polar air that's left in the wake of our present exiting system. thing is, that would normally cause one pause, but the with the flow so compressed already, the governing mechanics don't really get 'under' the 40th parallel enough to where they can ignite more of a NJ Model low.. Which can still happen. This compression/velocity thing isn't an absolute stoppage... if those wave dynamics end up a little stronger, it may wend it's way more along a mid Indy- to NYC sort of translation ...which would put the ACY to ACK rapid deepener more plausible. Yeah, it could correct that way... All models are having difficulties in this high velocity regime. Hence the headaches with the present thing. ALB is getting a nice busty band ... no clue. Or less anywho... And I suspect we have to be touch and go in the models over the next few runs. As of 18z's initialization, the governing mechanics are two part, 1 ... over the GOA, and 2 ... diving over the polar toward the NW Territories. Those two have to be a ... correctly sampled before b ... they can even begin to intermingle correctly down stream in the models. I don't care what the assimilators say/argue, that's prone to morphology in about two cycles from now.... estimating - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 John, I agree, I believe the possibility still exists enough for fortune to turn into our side and favor SNE with snowfall prior to heading into ME. Right now the dynamics are shoved too far northwest in the form of a dynamic 2-4"/3-6" widespread clipper system impacting the Midwest and Great Lakes, as well as Western NY with heavy initial system snows and then the backside LE snows. I believe the dynamics will dig more southeastward than modeled right now, and the 18z NAM showed this happening, actually showed a large band or rain/snow moving through SNE initially with the development of the surface low right over Cape Cod which would favor Rain vs snow in the SE part of MA and RI, however if development were to happen sooner and further off shore, then the dynamics can take advantage of the warm ocean south of ACK, and really explode the nor'easter into a blizzard perhaps. Still about two more cycles until sampling can take place for our shortwave in question. I believe like today's coastal storm and arctic shortwave, this storm system for the 12th should wait until the arctic shortwave that phases into the pacific shortwave and overall H5 trough and Upper level low, we could see correction southeast and faster bombogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 00z NAM coming in hot right now, SREFs are much stronger with the coastal redevelopment, just a little too far north for my liking, but that will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 00z NAM coming in hot right now, SREFs are much stronger with the coastal redevelopment, just a little too far north for my liking, but that will change Nice digging on the Nam Now lets get this low under LI so everyone will win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 00z NAM real far south with the H5 energy from the Pacific Jet and the Arctic jet energy pushes further southeast, this in turn will allow the Clipper low to redevelop southeast of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Nice digging on the Nam Now lets get this low under LI so everyone will win I totally agree with you, the NAM and GFS are trending that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Nice digging on the Nam Now lets get this low under LI so everyone will win H5 looked better / more amped up but still the low levels get flooded with warmth for nearly all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, ma blizzard said: H5 looked better / more amped up but still the low levels get flooded with warmth for nearly all of SNE NAM is likely too warm, I think the surface low will eventually get pulled southeast along with the H5 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Right now we won't know the surface setup until within 24 hours, watch the H5 get better and better is what we want at this stage in the process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 It looks worse than 18z. It’s warm for just about everyone in SNE... next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It looks worse than 18z. It’s warm for just about everyone in SNE... next Still better than 06z and 12z runs. I wouldn't write this off if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It looks worse than 18z. It’s warm for just about everyone in SNE... next 4 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Still better than 06z and 12z runs. I wouldn't write this off if I were you. I think past 24 hours have trended better on this one. Looked to stay white not wet out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 I wouldn't buy into the warm layers the NAM shows, the solution will likely head southeastward with the energy at H5 placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 The storm likes the better baroclinicity, it will trend southeastward with the better dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 00z GFS coming in now, by the way we should have a much better handle on this low by the time the afternoon EURO comes in tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 GFS is pretty good for a chunk of this forum. Prob only far southern regions and far SE MA doesn't get advisory snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Looks a tick too warm but it usually is. Does re-develop earlier than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is pretty good for a chunk of this forum. Prob only far southern regions and far SE MA doesn't get advisory snows. Why doesn't SE MA get in on the fun? Because of BL temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 00z GFS is further southwest with the lead Pacific jet shortwave disturbance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why doesn't SE MA get in on the fun? Because of BL temps? Yeah your area is cooked on this setup...way too much flow out of the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 I like where we are for this thing. Coastal front magic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah your area is cooked on this setup...way too much flow out of the east. Do you think its trending towards an earlier developer and perhaps won't flood the coast with warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Do you think its trending towards an earlier developer and perhaps won't flood the coast with warmth? The earlier it redevelops, then the better further southeast....but I highly doubt it does it early enough to save all the way out past HYA where you are. It would take a drastic trend this close to the event. I'd look to events beyond this one for snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Still going to wait until 12z runs tomorrow before giving up hope for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Do you think its trending towards an earlier developer and perhaps won't flood the coast with warmth? You need to move!! Did you get any snow today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Just now, ineedsnow said: You need to move!! Did you get any snow today? Nope, just sleet and ice accumulation a little after noon today and then it warmed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: You need to move!! Did you get any snow today? I am not moving, because I have seen two of the biggest snowstorms in my life time hit my hometown in the last twelve years, 2005 and 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: You need to move!! Did you get any snow today? he has had 2 legit 3 foot events since 2005 plus so many other footers and cape specials, he has seen single event totals and authentic blizzard conditions we will never see so he takes a few early season events on the chin trust me this winter he will be S++ while we are squinting under a streetlight looking for a flake of pixie dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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