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December 9th 2017 Crusha Obs


Rjay

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Everyone please remember too, this subforum encompasses a pretty decent sized area. Just because you arent seeing a certain condition, or only expect .... doesnt mean thats how it will be for everyone. Try not to speak in absolutes...its already backfired for numerous people here. Try to keep the drama to a minimum.

 

and for the record, we dont need 2" an hour rates to accumulate on roads, cmon guys. 

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8 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Everyone please remember too, this subforum encompasses a pretty decent sized area. Just because you arent seeing a certain condition, or only expect .... doesnt mean thats how it will be for everyone. Try not to speak in absolutes...its already backfired for numerous people here. Try to keep the drama to a minimum.

 

and for the record, we dont need 2" an hour rates to accumulate on roads, cmon guys. 

I’m assuming that’s directed at me. You said it yourself unless your at the persons location don’t downplay their observation. I’ll happily take a pic of how much salt is on Broadway right now. It’s white with salt. Not trying to start anything but I have been here and outside for every single snow event for the past 5 winters and know how things transpire.

solid light snow now on the UWS. Grass and colder surfaces coated. I like the look of the banding setting up right through the met area. We should do fine 

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Everything is on schedule. If you don’t know what you’re talking about, you probably shouldn’t post as it only causes confusion.

I fully expect moderate to locally heavy snow to overspread most of the area by early afternoon and persist well into the evening. Enjoy your 2-4, 3-5, 4-6” from West to East.

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15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m assuming that’s directed at me. You said it yourself unless your at the persons location don’t downplay their observation. I’ll happily take a pic of how much salt is on Broadway right now. It’s white with salt. Not trying to start anything but I have been here and outside for every single snow event for the past 5 winters and know how things transpire.

solid light snow now on the UWS. Grass and colder surfaces coated. I like the look of the banding setting up right through the met area. We should do fine 

Right. Broadway might not accumulate. Plenty of other roads will, which was my point. If you meant the roads by you when you said "we", then sorry for the confusion, lol. But no, it wasnt just directed at you. This was a guaranteed miss a few days ago, thats all i meant. I know your obs are always on point. 

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GFS has a general 2-4" with pockets of 4-6" and agrees with the 12z RGEM. The 2"+ line should go back to the Poconos. 

Not seeing it with this dry slot on the radar already approaching southern nj. I agree with your analysis of the models but the radar, unless it fills in extraordinarily tells a different story 

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Just now, christhesnowman said:

Not seeing it with this dry slot on the radar already approaching southern nj. I agree with your analysis of the models but the radar, unless it fills in extraordinarily tells a different story 

 

16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Everything is on schedule. If you don’t know what you’re talking about, you probably shouldn’t post as it only causes confusion.

I fully expect moderate to locally heavy snow to overspread most of the area by early afternoon and persist well into the evening. Enjoy your 2-4, 3-5, 4-6” from West to East.

 

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Just posted this on the discussion thread - let me know if this shouldn't be in the obs thread:  Latest HRRR with a general 2-4" of snowfall for the I-95 corridor from Philly to NYC, with about 2-3" in Philly and along a line running up I-95 in PA and about 3-4" along a line a bit east of the NJTPK to NYC (including NB) - and nobody getting more than maybe 5". This is definitely 1-2" less than was being shown by most of the global models through late last night.  Sucks, but 2-4" would still be nice...although 3-6" would've been nicer, lol...

hrrr_asnow_neus_18.png

Nice improvement in the HRRR 2 hours later.  Much of the I-95 corridor now in the 3-5" range vs. 2-3" before.  Time to go outside and enjoy it I think.  Moderate snow in Metuchen with probably 1/2" on the ground and side roads getting a coating already, as temps are down to 32F here. Time for a walk...

hrrr_asnow_neus_16.png

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22 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Steady snow began around 9:50 am. Temp is 29, dew point is 20. Gauge is off? I thought dew point/temps needed to be closer to produce precip. 

Nah, I'm at 33/18... it's really dry out there. You don't need the BL completely saturated for snow to fall since the majority of the precip-forming cloud layer is far off the ground, and the column wet bulbs from the top-down. 

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