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December 9, 2017 - Storm Observations/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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9 minutes ago, ENYsnow said:

Thats not orographic, looks like classic laterally quasi-stationary band associated with mid-level fgen forcing.

You are correct Sir.  I had forgotten the mid/upper level stuff, but this can happen with an eleongated system like this.  One well west and detached of the primary swath.

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When forecasting snow amounts sometimes you look at the flavor of the system. This one has outperformed west it's entire life. Nina ,SE Ridge playbook. This storms PWAT originated in Belize.  Man this was as historical as it comes for coverage area in the South and amazingly underforecast west. Good stuff 

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Have just about 4" right now on the deck and still coming down.  I think by the sound of some amounts we may  be at 3-6" by 7PM.  Then we may pick up a few more inches into early Sunday morning.  Meaning that a general 4-8" may actually be realized when all is said and done.  Nic way to truely start the 2017/2018 winter.:snowing:

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1 minute ago, snowgeek said:

3.5”. Heavy band starting to head east.


.

 

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Who would have thought that Albany might come out with the jackpot on this.  That stationary band is awesome.

 

Just over 3" here at the Pit.

26.0*

I guess it's not so stationary after all!  Please send it over here.

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Ordinarily I would be disappointed (in Bristol, RI)  with the 33 degrees and 1.5” of snow on the ground with the intermittent snow holes and mixed precipitation, however it’s the holiday season and I’m thankful for any measurable snow in early/mid December, and a good chance of a White Christmas, after the last few years where we have had warm Decembers. Cheers!

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23 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

ORH to DAW might end up becoming the jackpot area with the consistent banding. Great, great start to the season.

I think it may end up being a little more south of DAW.  My thinking is southeastern NEW Hamshire Nashua/ Lowell, Mass area south /southwest to northwest RI, Worcester, Hartford, King of Prussia area.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what are ALB ground truths..?

looks like that deform band we saw earlier in the day has pivot out to a stasis over them.  It's interesting because that would a huge over production on QPF if that's verifying as radar has that - interesting...

No model had a deform band that far West. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what are ALB ground truths..?

looks like that deform band we saw earlier in the day has pivot out to a stasis over them.  It's interesting because that would a huge over production on QPF if that's verifying as radar has that - interesting...

Think there were some 2" per reports up there earlier.

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4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Think there were some 2" per reports up there earlier.

The NAM is the only model whose QPF i saw hard numbers off of and it had like .07 to nothing every other run..actually one run was .13 I think... Three runs back it had .2"

There prooobably going to bust that a goodly bit ...albeit along a narrow region.

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what are ALB ground truths..?

looks like that deform band we saw earlier in the day has pivoted out to a stasis over them.  It's interesting because that would be a huge over production on QPF if that's verifying as radar has that - interesting...

Getting close to 3" per my buddy there.

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