NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Fingers crossed the Rockville-Columbia death band is back. *Arlington-Rockville-Columbia death band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Amped said: If only that were like 10 miles NW so DCA was in the screwzone and Westminster was in the deathband, I might believe it. You know that that's probably what will happen. It never fails. I'm not going to complain that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Stafford and Spotsy added to WSW Seemed like it was only a matter of time.....I think eventually a WSW will be expanded back to DC and the full 95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 922 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 DCZ001-MDZ006-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ052>054-506-091030- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0020.171209T0500Z-171209T2100Z/ District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun- 922 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow, heavy at times Saturday morning. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of The District of Columbia, central and northern Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Saturday. The heaviest snowfall will be between dawn and noon on Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 922 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 DCZ001-MDZ006-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ052>054-506-091030- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0020.171209T0500Z-171209T2100Z/ District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun- 922 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow, heavy at times Saturday morning. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of The District of Columbia, central and northern Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Saturday. The heaviest snowfall will be between dawn and noon on Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. Almost a WSW. I really like the "Snow, heavy at times" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Yea!! Finally flipped back to snow after 4.5 hours or so of sleet and freezing rain! Big, fat flakes flying now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: *Arlington-Rockville-Columbia death band. **Alrington-College Park death band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 If this was March the roads would get clear as the sun rose. But it's mid December. I've not seen any salters out in my part of Moco yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Using the Ferrier ratio from TT (not sure how credible it is), still little batch of 6-8" of snow NW of Fairfax Or right over Fairfax. Just making sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 The part about vis being under 1/4 mile at times seems new to the ZFP's... but I like it VAZ053-091000- Fairfax- Including the cities of Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, and Franconia 930 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY... .REST OF TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of snow late this evening, then snow likely. Patchy fog. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Southeast winds around 5 mph, becoming east. Chance of snow 70 percent. .SATURDAY...Snow, mainly in the morning. Patchy fog. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning with visibility one quarter mile or less at times. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Highs in the mid 30s. North winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: If this was March the roads would get clear as the sun rose. But it's mid December. I've not seen any salters out in my part of Moco yet... Howard, Baltimore, and Anne Arundel have all been treated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 933 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Previous forecast looks pretty much on track. Have adjusted snowfall totals up to the highest advisory threshold 3-5" for the Baltimore and Washington Metro areas. Have expanded the Winter Storm Warning to include Spotsylvania and Stafford Counties. Prince Georges, Anne Arundel were on the cusp of getting upgraded to a warning too, but will wait for 00Z models for further evaluation. 12Z ECMWF has 850-700 thickness of 1555 bisecting St. Mary`s County at 06Z-12Z. This should delineate the rain/sleet/snow line. Looking for a local max snow accumulation band to extend through Calvert/Charles/King George Counties with lesser amounts to the southeast. To the northwest to the city centers, lesser QPF forecast but colder boundary layer will lead to near warning level snowfalls. Expecting a tight gradient to the northwest of the city centers, and currently putting that gradient through central Loudoun/northern Montgomery/central Frederick counties. Snowfall should get going in earnest after dawn and last through early afternoon, as two upper jet structures merge over the mid-Atlantic. We will be in the right rear quad of upper level jet centered over New England and the left front quad of upper level jet approaching from southeast US. They should merge by 12Z Saturday overhead, causing enhanced upward motion. The boundary layer will become much colder after noon Saturday, with another inch or two of fluffier snowfall before tapering to flurries at sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Last few LWX radar frames showing some returns up in NE MD and those down toward CHO "aiming" and "growing" toward the radar site. Which basically means the virga level is starting to descend and snow is closer to reaching the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Looks like borderline surface temps on the 3K NAM keep Kuchera ratios down. But it would still be 5-6" imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, cae said: Looks like borderline surface temps on the 3K NAM keep Kuchera ratios down. But it would still be 5-6" imby. Still great for most of us. Methinks if the bands are that heavy NW the temps will be enough to have Kuchera ratio closer to 8:1 or 9:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Pretty potent jet at work tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Last few LWX radar frames showing some returns up in NE MD and those down toward CHO "aiming" and "growing" toward the radar site. Which basically means the virga level is starting to descend and snow is closer to reaching the surface. Late this afternoon, I noticed aftet a jet tok off from Bwi, it became obscure at around 2500'. I thought maybe I'd see some flakes early, but no such luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, cae said: Looks like borderline surface temps on the 3K NAM keep Kuchera ratios down. But it would still be 5-6" imby. That looks like one of the more realistic scenarios imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Last few LWX radar frames showing some returns up in NE MD and those down toward CHO "aiming" and "growing" toward the radar site. Which basically means the virga level is starting to descend and snow is closer to reaching the surface. Was just noticing that as well. 3km was showing returns over the DC area and burbs around 7z. Seems right based on trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I'm feeling better now that I can see moisture increasing on the radar to my SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I think this has some good characteristics of an overperformer. Precip line is comfortably NW. Temps are good, not great. All it takes is one deathband. I'm excited, and y'all should be too, even the folks NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Poor Roanoke and Charlottesville. Victims of a crippling virga storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 HRRR now has onset 3 hours earlier, at 04z. Hmmm 06z looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 CWG Upped predictions by a full inch Don't know what to make of the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Hrrr onset is suspect. We're not an hour away from precip and 3 hours away from measurable. Hope I'm wrong but I call bust on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: HRRR now has onset 3 hours earlier, at 04z. Hmmm Hrrrrr is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: CWG Upped predictions by a full inch Don't know what to make of the map The categories on that map are really confusing. They could've gone: Coating to 2", 2-4", 4-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: The categories on that map are really confusing. They could've gone: Coating to 2", 2-4", 4-7". The inevitable DC measurement was on their minds, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: CWG Upped predictions by a full inch Don't know what to make of the map Sounds more like they're trying not to be wrong, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Sounds more like they're trying not to be wrong, lol It's DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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