yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Love the 3k nams onset. Gets going good right away. 18z was pretty light at onset. 0z says accum snow out of the gate. 3-4" by 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: 00z NAM 12km ~0.55" QPF at DC Whew, it's safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If the qpf Isn't at least .5, I'll burn my weenie hot dog You’re safe. 0.5”+ on TT for 95/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: 3-4" by 15z Big long fronto band over both our yards in the AM. I'll hug this run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Big long fronto band over both our yards in the AM. I'll hug this run for sure. Yes indeed... pouring heavy heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: 3-4" by 15z Yikes, because it looks like the snow in VA is just starting to explode at 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Love the 3k nams onset. Gets going good right away. 18z was pretty light at onset. 0z says accum snow out of the gate. I love the banding positioning over areas east of Rt 15. Wants to put a nice moderate to heavy stripe right through Central MD. Love seeing consensus on that type of banding positioning. Gonna be a fun walk in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just remember that HRRR is worth nothing. I like seeing the consistent over performance down south. Not sure it translates to us over performing, but some storms just seem to have that pattern. And given the very long swath of snow, this storm seems like it has a good chance to be a NESIS cat 2. Maybe even cat 3 if it over performs in the NE corridor. A continuous swath of snow from central Mexico into Canada *taking the Atlantic coast route* is pretty insane. The orientation of the trough has to be such a unique orientation that kinks down into Mexico with then a broad enough right side to possibly miss the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I'd expect no less from the finest weenie model on the planet. Use the Ferrier rime correction on TT it makes the 3k NAM output more reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Yes indeed... pouring heavy heavy snow A feature like that is really tricky but seeing it at hour 15 like that makes me pretty happy. Now just gotta hope it's right. Prob end up setting up over leesburg through mount airy and Psu ville. Lol. Easy call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 If you compare both Nams prior runs 850 32 degree temp lines, they both moved like 25 miles NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3k NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: If you compare both Nams prior runs 850 32 degree temp lines, they both moved like 25 miles NW. 850 0c line or 2mT 32 degree line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A feature like that is really tricky but seeing it at hour 15 like that makes me pretty happy. Now just gotta hope it's right. Prob end up setting up over leesburg through mount airy and Psu ville. Lol. Easy call Check out this skewT from when the snow starts on the 3K NAM. DGZ isn't very deep, but holy cow that's some strong upward motion. That band would produce some prolific flake flakeage. Ugh...not pasting for some reason. Just click on my house on TT at 8z on the 3k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 850 0c line or 2mT 32 degree line? Choice a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I love the banding positioning over areas east of Rt 15. Wants to put a nice moderate to heavy stripe right through Central MD. Love seeing consensus on that type of banding positioning. Gonna be a fun walk in the AM Of all the nice runs I've seen for this event...the 3k NAM is the frontrunner. What an outstanding way for this to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I know this is 10-1 but it clearly illustrates the band that the 3k NAM wants to set up. Porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Check out this skewT from when the snow starts on the 3K NAM. DGZ isn't very deep, but holy cow that's some strong upward motion. That band would produce some prolific flake flakeage. Amazing and NSFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3k NAM looks like 0.6-0.7" DC and immediate vicinity. Snow tapers off at 7 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I know this is 10-1 but it clearly illustrates the band that the 3k NAM wants to set up. Porn. I see 7-8" over my house. Perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Wherever that/those bands set up as depicted on the 3k have legit shot at solid WSW criteria. Should be a fun morning/afternoon. Verbatim DC is close to 0.7” on the 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Using the Ferrier ratio from TT (not sure how credible it is), still little batch of 6-8" of snow NW of Fairfax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I see 7-8" over my house. Perfection. I'm in at about 6-7...meh....just kidding...holy crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I know this is 10-1 but it clearly illustrates the band that the 3k NAM wants to set up. Porn. If only that were like 10 miles NW so DCA was in the screwzone and Westminster was in the deathband, I might believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 00Z NAM Nest supports the idea of that band along I-95 most of the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: 00Z NAM Nest supports the idea of that band along I-95 most of the morning Fingers crossed the Rockville-Columbia death band is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Stafford and Spotsy added to WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I see 7-8" over my house. Perfection. -1.0" (or a little more lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Fingers crossed the Rockville-Columbia death band is back. There's my 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 922 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 DCZ001-MDZ006-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ052>054-506-091030- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0020.171209T0500Z-171209T2100Z/ District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun- 922 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow, heavy at times Saturday morning. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of The District of Columbia, central and northern Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Saturday. The heaviest snowfall will be between dawn and noon on Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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