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Dec 8/9 Obs and discussion (Showme's) Storm


showmethesnow

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39 minutes ago, Jebman said:

The best part of any storm, is tracking it. It has been a great ride, even if all I get IS a car topper, lol.

It's been fun tracking it and pretending it is December 2013.

Come on Jeb! You’re in for sooooo much snow...man...you’ll be melting it down, canning it, and sending it to the forgotten people of Puerto Rico. Happy shovel and jebwalking season. LOLz. 

 

PS—Happy hour in full effect. 

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17 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Come on Jeb! You’re in for sooooo much snow...man...you’ll be melting it down, canning it, and sending it to the forgotten people of Puerto Rico. Happy shovel and jebwalking season. LOLz. 

 

PS—Happy hour in full effect. 

I'm all in, now. Down to 35/27. We might hit 32 by midnight. IT'S ON!

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CC and surface obs show mixing line from roughly RIC-Cape Lookout at the moment. Warm nose aloft making its way in. MFV sensor did show lightning in the distance on the last ob. There's some weak elevated upright instability tonight on some of the soundings, so a flash or two of lightning wouldn't surprise me. Also wouldn't be shocked to see a melting-driven circulation set up if that mixing line persists, with the folks just to the northwest cashing in.

.

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52 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Ratios should be decent here. Using Euro temps I never get above 30 Saturday and most of central Md  fall thru the upper 20s by 0z tomorrow.

I think so too. 850's are cold. Around -6 for the whole event. 3-4 inches looks good. My gut tells me we overachieve is more likely than underperforming.

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2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I think so too. 850's are cold. Around -6 for the whole event. 3-4 inches looks good. My gut tells me we overachieve is more likely than underperforming.

I think the only wildcard would be lack of fronto/banding away from the low center off the coast. I used to have the hrrr frontogeneis maps bookmarked but I cant find them anymore. 

Sometimes developing lows lose dynamics on the edges and other times they can really produce in the outer bands. 

It's a fairly long duration event but qpf totals arent impressive so a decent portion of the precip will be on the light side. With marginal surface, the best way to maximize totals is to have a period of really heavy stuff. We won't know if/where that sets us until tomorrow AM. It's a pretty juicey system with a long fetch and great jet support. Ocean is warm too so strong baroclonicity will be in play. My gut says there will be periods of fairly heavy snow tomorrow as the slp passes our latitude. Hard to say who gets lucky with banding but you folks up north always seem to find a way. Lol

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From Mount Holly-

There has already been up to 2 inches of accumulation on grassy
surfaces in far southern Delaware, so adjusted the snow amounts
up in this area. Otherwise, stayed close to the previous
forecast. Radar trends continue to depict a persistent band of
snow from the SW corner of DE to Cape May, NJ. For now, this has
shown little indication of propagating northwest, but expect
that to happen over the next several hours.
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Started out as rain here till about 4pm when it flipped to snow and came down pretty good. Got a nice dusting, then it changed over to sleet. Now, it has been freezing rain for about 1.5 hours. Currently 32/32. I am seeing reports in the SE forum of power outages and hearing of reports of large tree limbs dropping. I am getting a bit concerned of this turning into an ice storm rather than a good snow storm. Still many hours to go before it ends. With that being said, any of you guys with expertise in upper levels of the atmosphere, can you clue me in, to if you think this remains a freezing rain event or should I flip back to snow? And thank you in advance for anyone who may reply!

BTW, I am located in VA, 10 miles or so east of the I95 / I85 intersect.

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