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Dec 8/9 Obs and discussion (Showme's) Storm


showmethesnow

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Awaiting AKQ to issue warnings it will be coming for sure 

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
248 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

...Winter Storm Warning in effect the Northern Piedmont of North
Carolina including the Triad cities east to Roxboro and
Hillsborough. Winter Weather Advisory for the Central Piedmont to
the Northeast Piedmont including the Triangle Area...

.A potent jet stream along with several waves of low pressure
will bring widespread precipitation across North Carolina into
Saturday. The air mass will be marginally cold enough for wet snow
accumulations in the Warning area, with a change to rain limiting
snow accumulations in the Advisory Area.


NCZ007-021>024-038-039-090400-
/O.UPG.KRAH.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171209T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.W.0002.171208T1948Z-171209T2100Z/
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Davidson-Randolph-
Including the cities of Bushy Fork, Concord, Roxboro, Surl,
Pfafftown, Stanleyville, Winston-Salem, Greensboro,
Lake Townsend, High Point, Burlington, Graham, Chapel Hill,
Carrboro, Lexington, Thomasville, Asheboro, Ulah, Archdale,
and Trinity
248 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Periods of wet snow expected into Saturday morning. .
  Plan the potential for some slushy and slick spots that will
  create hazardous travel. Wet snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
  are expected with locally 5 inches possible in the northern
  Piedmont. The accumulations will be mostly on elevated and
  grassy surfaces.

* WHERE...Northwest portions of central North Carolina including
  the Piedmont Triad cities and communities, east to the Roxboro
  and Hillsborough areas.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will remain in the lower 30s
  overnight, with highs Saturday in the mid 30s. Be prepared for
  significant reductions in visibility at times. Heavy slushy snow
  accumulations may freeze on bridges and overpasses overnight.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for wet snow means severe winter weather
conditions are occurring. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$
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2 minutes ago, Beachin said:

Awaiting AKQ to issue warnings it will be coming for sure 

 

Winter Storm Warning


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
248 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

...Winter Storm Warning in effect the Northern Piedmont of North
Carolina including the Triad cities east to Roxboro and
Hillsborough. Winter Weather Advisory for the Central Piedmont to
the Northeast Piedmont including the Triangle Area...

.A potent jet stream along with several waves of low pressure
will bring widespread precipitation across North Carolina into
Saturday. The air mass will be marginally cold enough for wet snow
accumulations in the Warning area, with a change to rain limiting
snow accumulations in the Advisory Area.


NCZ007-021>024-038-039-090400-
/O.UPG.KRAH.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171209T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.W.0002.171208T1948Z-171209T2100Z/
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Davidson-Randolph-
Including the cities of Bushy Fork, Concord, Roxboro, Surl,
Pfafftown, Stanleyville, Winston-Salem, Greensboro,
Lake Townsend, High Point, Burlington, Graham, Chapel Hill,
Carrboro, Lexington, Thomasville, Asheboro, Ulah, Archdale,
and Trinity
248 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Periods of wet snow expected into Saturday morning. .
  Plan the potential for some slushy and slick spots that will
  create hazardous travel. Wet snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
  are expected with locally 5 inches possible in the northern
  Piedmont. The accumulations will be mostly on elevated and
  grassy surfaces.

* WHERE...Northwest portions of central North Carolina including
  the Piedmont Triad cities and communities, east to the Roxboro
  and Hillsborough areas.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will remain in the lower 30s
  overnight, with highs Saturday in the mid 30s. Be prepared for
  significant reductions in visibility at times. Heavy slushy snow
  accumulations may freeze on bridges and overpasses overnight.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for wet snow means severe winter weather
conditions are occurring. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

NWS offices have been behind the ball from the get-go playing catchup with the model trends, from deep south Texas to the southeast and on northeastward. A remarkable storm.

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I know this is just to our south... but it includes S MD and LWX is in the CWA ATTN section at the bottom:

mcd1789.gif

  Mesoscale Discussion 1789
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of southern/eastern Virginia into the
   Delmarva Peninsula

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 081952Z - 090045Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates around or in excess of 1 inch per hour
   could develop and impact Richmond and surrounding areas of southern
   and eastern Virginia by early evening.  This could commence as early
   as 5 PM EST and continue through the 8-9 PM EST time frame.

   DISCUSSION...Strengthening large-scale ascent is contributing to
   increasingly saturated thermodynamic profiles and precipitation
   rates across much of southern through eastern Virginia.  This
   appears likely to be aided by a zone of enhanced lift associated
   with mid-level frontogenetic forcing, which is forecast to redevelop
   northeast of the central Appalachians through the northern Mid
   Atlantic Coast region by early this evening.  This is expected to
   increase lift through the favorable mixed-phase layer for large
   dendritic ice crystal growth, which could potentially provide
   support for heavy snow rates.

   Generally west through north of the Hampton Roads area, roughly from
   near Danville through much of the Greater Richmond area,
   northeastward into the Delmarva Peninsula, models suggest that
   temperature profiles are generally below freezing.  Current surface
   temperatures/wet-bulb temperatures appear marginal for snow reaching
   the surface.  However, with the onset of nightfall, and  perhaps
   weak low-level cold advection and cooling associated with melting
   precipitation, a changeover to snow appears possible by the 22-23z
   time frame, if not before.  Heavy snow rates around or in excess of
   1 inch per hour appear possible, and may continue into the 01-03Z
   time frame, before diminishing.

   ..Kerr.. 12/08/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

 

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Does anyone have a map with current wet bulb temperatures? I thought I remember seeing one posted here last year but I can’t find one by googling.  

This one I think?

swbt.gif?1512763234233

Go here -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17

Then click on winter weather tab and then you should be good :)

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16 minutes ago, yoda said:

and King George county in VA... its the county south of Stafford

Our Winter Weather Advisory in Stafford County, VA was updated to 3-5” I believe.....wouldn’t shock me to see Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania and Stafford upgraded to Winter Storm Warning at some point. Doesn’t really matter though 

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