aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 What confuses me is I always thought start time was 6ish around here. The only thing that changed in my mind was total qpf. I spent 95% of the time on the outside looking in so I'm pretty happy with what I get. Don't respond to this Ji thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just saw this update from Mount Holly. Its going to be a wait and see deal I think. Hopefully we get a decent few hours of light to moderate snow a bit later. I am good with 1-2". They will likely drop the WSW in eastern MD, as nothing at all has fallen to this point and I really dont see how the criteria (5" potential) is reached today. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 630 am update: The dry air near the surface continues to be a hindrance for snow making the move northward, but it looks like the process is beginning now thanks to substantial large-scale lift approaching the area. As a potent vort max approaches the Mid-Atlantic today, jet dynamics combined with considerable differential cyclonic vorticity advection will permit widespread precipitation to develop north into the area. Timing of the vort max appears to have slowed by 3-6 hours...another reason for the slower onset of precipitation across the area. ..The trend of the HRRR and HRRR-X has been downward with QPF today, though not substantially so. The 06Z NAM Nest continues rather bullish in comparison but has shifted the snow banding somewhat eastward. The dry look of the GFS is worrisome, particularly with considerable precipitation ongoing in the western Atlantic (which may prevent as much northward advection of more substantial moisture). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: You did what you had to do. Don't look back! Lol It leaves more time to hang out here and track without the yap yap and someone telling you it's not going to snow and stop wasting time with your imaginary online weather buddies. And the kids can now eat pop tarts whenever they want. It was the right move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, PDIII said: I thought that was what it always was gonna be. I thought we were sitting pretty at 1-3 if not 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: I thought we were sitting pretty at 1-3 if not 2-4. Good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I forget...did it snow last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Light rain maybe mangled flakes, temp 35. Not what I was hopping for this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Good one. Last night before I went to bed everything was looking pretty good for a nice advisory level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It leaves more time to hang out here and track without the yap yap and someone telling you it's not going to snow and stop wasting time with your imaginary online weather buddies. And the kids can now eat pop tarts whenever they want. It was the right move Kids come first. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Light snow in Arlington. We're getting fingered per the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I forget...did it snow last year? I had an inch while the eastern shore got crushed. Sound familiar lol? Glad it's only early Dec and we have an "epic pattern". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 -SN. 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Just saw this update from Mount Holly. Its going to be a wait and see deal I think. Hopefully we get a decent few hours of light to moderate snow a bit later. I am good with 1-2". They will likely drop the WSW in eastern MD, as nothing at all has fallen to this point and I really dont see how the criteria (5" potential) is reached today. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 630 am update: The dry air near the surface continues to be a hindrance for snow making the move northward, but it looks like the process is beginning now thanks to substantial large-scale lift approaching the area. As a potent vort max approaches the Mid-Atlantic today, jet dynamics combined with considerable differential cyclonic vorticity advection will permit widespread precipitation to develop north into the area. Timing of the vort max appears to have slowed by 3-6 hours...another reason for the slower onset of precipitation across the area. ..The trend of the HRRR and HRRR-X has been downward with QPF today, though not substantially so. The 06Z NAM Nest continues rather bullish in comparison but has shifted the snow banding somewhat eastward. The dry look of the GFS is worrisome, particularly with considerable precipitation ongoing in the western Atlantic (which may prevent as much northward advection of more substantial moisture). Even if we don't see the totals projected on yesterday's runs I still consider it a win if we get a couple of inches on the ground this early in the season. I guess it is all a matter of perspective though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 37 & flurries. No accumulation at all. And I’m pretty far south and east of most of you. Like I said in the Panic Room last night, this is Boxing Day 2.0 until proven otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Any time now snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just woke up and it’s flurrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Absolutely dumping.....and oh yeah light snow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Even if we don't see the totals projected on yesterday's runs I still consider it a win if we get a couple of inches on the ground this early in the season. I guess it is all a matter of perspective though. Agreed. I am already over the 1-3 forecast overnight that produced 3 flakes lol. Not sure the 2-4 for today will verify. I expect that will be cut back. If I didn't already have a Rehoboth trip planned for next weekend, I would be there now! eta- noticed they have 3-5" for today here. Guess than means they are sticking with the WSW, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Nice! Nothing like waking up to an inch on the ground....the inch of brown leaves I failed to rake In November. And damn. Wouldn’t you know it...there some on the deck too! Kids will be so pumped when they wake up. Oh and the wife... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Loving the humor in some of the posts this morning. I don't usually post in your sub-forum, but of course, mine is dead at the moment. Just went outside to get the morning newspaper, and there were a few specks of pixie dust on the cars, so SOMETHING is trying to make it down to the surface up here in NEPA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Even if we don't see the totals projected on yesterday's runs I still consider it a win if we get a couple of inches on the ground this early in the season. I guess it is all a matter of perspective though. I doubt a couple of inches occurs IMBY. maybe a grass topper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: Loving the humor in some of the posts this morning. I don't usually post in your sub-forum, but of course, mine is dead at the moment. Just went outside to get the morning newspaper, and there were a few specks of pixie dust on the cars, so SOMETHING is trying to make it down to the surface up here in NEPA... Consider that a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Haven't had a flake yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Humor aside, Bob Chill was concerned about dealing with multiple waves of low pressure as opposed to a bonifide storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 -SN 33/32 Mulch and cars have been topped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Thick misty light snow putting down loud little ice balls in Arlington right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I doubt a couple of inches occurs IMBY. maybe a grass topper. Honestly short of having temp issues I would be somewhat surprised if you didn't see at the very least an inch or two. But I am always wrong, at least as far as my wife is concerned, so there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 The radar looks moderately ok to the SW. Some light greens appearing near Fredericksburg and Warrenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I guess just waiting to see if it will reach ground now through the dry air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, Voyager said: Loving the humor in some of the posts this morning. I don't usually post in your sub-forum, but of course, mine is dead at the moment. Just went outside to get the morning newspaper, and there were a few specks of pixie dust on the cars, so SOMETHING is trying to make it down to the surface up here in NEPA... In the Mid-Atlantic you have to have a sense of humor with all the fail we deal with. Why do you think we have a panic room overseen by a reaper? Those our the poor lost humorless souls who spiraled into insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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