Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 KLWX must have gotten spooked by one of the later model runs. Throw it out. That's from page 341 of the snow weenie rulebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Jebman said: KLWX must have gotten spooked by one of the later model runs. Throw it out. Do you still have faith in 4-6" for DC? I think it may be possible, even more so for NW since it seems like a band will set up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Do you still have faith in 4-6" for DC? I think it may be possible, even more so for NW since it seems like a band will set up there I've heard of 2-4, maybe even 3-5 for DC, but have not heard of 4-6. System is pretty dynamic, I would not be surprised if DC did get that much by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Interesting post by DT Would not be surprised if the storm doesn't start until say 5 or 6 am, but then overperforms during the heaviest precip. It tends to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 it was never supposed to start till 5 0r 6am, then get heaviest after sunrise till early aftn, what is the problem?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 No problem at all, this is so fun to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, rcflyermd68 said: it was never supposed to start till 5 0r 6am, then get heaviest after sunrise till early aftn, what is the problem?? Pt. 2 of the storm is taking longer to materialize. Models have seemed to also make the storm last longer too, up to 0z Sunday. Storm should be just as West as predicted, but the longer it takes to materialize, the less precip we get out of it. Looks like holes are filling in on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, rcflyermd68 said: it was never supposed to start till 5 0r 6am, then get heaviest after sunrise till early aftn, what is the problem?? Either way, this should have some good precip hours. Like I said in a previous post, the most intense precip should compensate for the lost hours of snowfall. Maybe 3-5" for DC, and I think little jackpot will be I-95 and points West for possibly 5". It's out there, but it's colder, higher elevation (by a bit), and heavy snow band might set up NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3am, 34 degrees, light snow grains again in Dale City. There is this area of snow to my northwest. The southeastern edge has reached my backyard, I have 5dbz returns with light snow grains. Wish me luck, I am hoping the returns deepen in blue then go green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I know I'm posting a lot, but I think I'm one of the only ones still up (other than Jeb of course ), but the NAM does want to keep the snow going on longer Vs 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 H2O is fast asleep, he will miss the storm LMAO, by then, it will be far too late for him to "give you a refresher". LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 i,m up but there is nothing for me to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Patches on the radar filling in south, west (all the way past Cumberland) and a little band on top of me. Nothing hitting the ground yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 Currently 32 here. Radar looks as if it is now back building precip through the region. Should see that blossom fairly well in the next few hours through the region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Well that area of precip that was supposed to move into SE VA did. It did develop northwest. But now, it is moving off to the east. Maybe I should hit the bed? Hope against hope that when I get up in a few hours I'll look outside at steady snow. One thing this storm has done very well to us I-95'ers: It has been one frackin' big TEASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Maybe it’ll develop fast like 2/10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2.10.10 was sweet. Really loved it, We didnt get teased. We got SNOW, and strong winds, and drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Jebman said: 2.10.10 was sweet. Really loved it, We didnt get teased. We got SNOW, and strong winds, and drifts. Pretty sure there was a bit of a lull during the beginning, and then it delivered. Seem familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Yeah, I remember that. Then suddenly it set up then poured snow and the winds blew it all over, like a milkshake froth. There was so much blowing and drifting that it was damn tough to get snow depth readings. I'd shovel my driveway and an hour later it was drifted over again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 18z seems like when we will have the heaviest snow. I think *potentially* rates of 1 inch an hour temporarily wherever the band sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Found in the March 2009 Capital Weather Gang article "What happened was that the initial surge of moisture got eaten away by dry air coming in from the north. So even though radar showed precipitation surging through central Virginia Sunday afternoon, it hit a wall north and west Fredericksburg, Va. Then, even as the precipitation moved in, it was so light that some of the snowflakes forming in the cold air aloft melted near the surface (where temperatures were above freezing) causing a mix of rain/sleet and little accumulation. Had it been precipitating harder (like it was to the east), the air would've cooled via evaporation, we wouldn't have had rain, and the initial snow would've started sticking earlier. None of the models we use as a tool in forecasting predicted the dry air intrusion until it was practically happening. In the future, this is something we'll have to analyze more closely for an incoming storm of this sort." Seems like the dry air thing never has been handed well Bonus: more from the article MISTAKE: INCORRECTLY REDUCED SNOW AMOUNTS WEST OF I-95 MID-STORM Around 9:15 p.m., when the snow had temporarily stopped from the District and points west and not accumulated more than a sloppy half inch or so, we decided to lower accumulations for those areas. Because we had expected at least a couple inches of snow in these spots by then and the radar to the west and northwest was underwhelming, it seemed like the obvious decision. We didn't throw in the towel entirely though, noting the redevelopment of snow to the southwest as well as the likelihood of more snow late at night associated with an "energetic upper low." But we did drop accumulation estimates to 2-5" (from 4-8") in the immediate metro area and 1-3" north and west of the Beltway (from either 2-4" or 4-8"). That downward adjustment of 2-3 inches was unnecessary. As it turned out, the "energetic upper low" (the same feature had produced thundersnow in Atlanta) dropped a couple more inches than even we expected. That made up for the lack of snow along and west of I-95 early on. This seems to have so many similarities with this storm. "Same feature that had produced thundersnow in Atlanta dropped a couple more inches than even we expected. That made up for the lack of snow along and west of I-95 early on" I hope this is the case here. You never know, but this seems like a common theme with these types of nor'easters. Don't be too surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Convection offshore the Carolinas is robbing us of snow. That is probably why we are getting teased so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Nam looks ok but radar looks like scorched death valley out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jebman said: Convection offshore the Carolinas is robbing us of snow. That is probably why we are getting teased so much. Meanwhile Atlanta has the snow just parked over them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I THINK I SAW A FLAKE -- going on a mini-Jebwalk to confirm, standby..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 Looks as if the overnight runs backed down a little on snowfall through the region for whatever that is worth. Low is in the process of forming off of OBX/SE coast at this time and what it does with that in the next 6 hours or so will be key. We want to see stronger pressure drops there with a more consolidated and semi rounded look vs a strung out, elongated look of pressure drops where there are possibly two areas of lower pressures combating each other. The differences on how it handles this low will also have somewhat of an impact on its future track. So though the models backed down somewhat on snowfall I might take that with some caution considering that the models are having some issues with how they are handling the low formation off the coast. And it wouldn't take much of a change in that regard to have noticeable impacts on the outcome through our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Hope we can still squeeze a few flurries out of this somehow. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jebman said: Convection offshore the Carolinas is robbing us of snow. That is probably why we are getting teased so much. Actually might be a good thing we are seeing a flare up off the coast. Might imply we are seeing a better deepening of low pressure off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Good news! 08z HRRR actually has a bit of snow in the area for the next hour! 07z In the area I mean barely of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 For those that wish to follow the pressure drops. This map can be somewhat confusing to some but what we want to see generally is the pretty colors SE of the outer banks deepen and attain a more rounded look. http://www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur Current pressure drops Ignore the pic below for some reason it doesn't want to load the current one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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