Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I still want to know why you said that. We are guilty of many things on this board but making totally false claims about verifiable weather info is not one of them. I can be a complete weenie tool bag but still wouldn't make s*** up. GFS is not just a long range model. It has very high verification scores. Initialization errors are documented on WPC model page. WTF. Hour 12 that convective blob robbed all precip to the NW, hour 18 is like 18z run again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 38/32. I’m not that concerned about radar. This storm probably won’t start truly ripping until dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It was probably a layer of just above freezing but thick enough to fully melt the flakes. My guess would somewhere around 900-925mb and probably no warmer than +1-2C. Most models have 925 temp maps. When something like you experienced happens you can take a look at the column and figure out how much trouble you're in. Sounds like you walked the line for a while. Thanks Bob!! We walk the line here a lot. I understand weather okay, but I understand more thunderstorm type systems than winter weather. I would love a good link to look at / understand different levels of the atmosphere far as temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Hour 12 that convective blob robbed all precip to the NW, hour 18 is like 18z run again. So was that an error or just what the GFS did in that frame? My issue was making the call for initialization error when it wasn't a documented event. That was all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 9 am to 3 pm could be epic for whoever gets in the death band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: 9 am to 3 pm could be epic for whoever gets in the death band. Looking forward to seeing legit snow falling during daylight again. Haven't really seen that since Jan 16. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 9 am to 3 pm could be epic for whoever gets in the death band. Unlike most events here, I don’t think that sets up in the usual spots up near Parkton, etc. I think it’ll be closer to 95/DC but likely just NW of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Even tho the radar looks real bad right now, I have a hunch we had better keep an eye on it overnight, just in case. Just bought a metric ton of coffee. If this should get interesting later, I might need to stay up all day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 https://imgflip.com/i/20ro4c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Unlike most events here, I don’t think that sets up in the usual spots up near Parkton, etc. I think it’ll be closer to 95/DC but likely just NW of 95 I think blend of GFS/NAM could be seen here. Less precip overall (0.2-0.4) but localized 0.5 or more in that band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: https://imgflip.com/i/20ro4c Classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Could be my untrained eyes (and brain), but it does look like something is drifting slowly to the northwest towards 95 on the radar: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Radar looks anemic.. PU . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 This is a kind of a unique storm. Most early December storms with this temp profile, flip east of 95. The ones that stay all snow in the city are usually colder at the surface. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Hoping the EURO looks like the UKIE in QPF... hope Matt says all is okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I am no meteorologist, but that element now located over AL, when it slides northeast over us in about 4-6 hours, makes you wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, Jebman said: Even tho the radar looks real bad right now, I have a hunch we had better keep an eye on it overnight, just in case. Just bought a metric ton of coffee. If this should get interesting later, I might need to stay up all day too. Jeb are you saying you're in for the entire night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Euro similar to 12z. Good hit for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, MountainGeek said: Jeb are you saying you're in for the entire night? I am saying I have not quite given up on this storm, not just yet. There is an element now over alabama this is steadily moving northeast. I dont know much about weather but I think we should keep an eye on that radar. It may look anemic right now, but it might set up in a few more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Jebman said: I am saying I have not quite given up on this storm, not just yet. There is an element now over alabama this is steadily moving northeast. I dont know much about weather but I think we should keep an eye on that radar. It may look anemic right now, but it might set up in a few more hours. What will probably happen is the organizing area of precip in NC will track into se va and things will build our way from there. Nothing great was supposed to happen overnight. All the action happens tomorow after sunrise. If people in the region get an inch or 2 overnight it's gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 The euro is good. Slightly east of 12z. 0.25” contour is out by Charles Town. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just noticed, temp down to 32 degrees, dewpoint 30, and light snow grains in Dale City. Yeah we better keep an eye on this radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: The euro is good. Slightly east of 12z. 0.25” contour is out by Charles Town. . Euro and ukie didn't budge much at all from 12z. Euro should help people breath again after seeing the gfs. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The euro is good. Slightly east of 12z. 0.25” contour is out by Charles Town. . Looks like 0.4 in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Those of you in Calvert, look out more precip is heading your way lol. It is definitely still on down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 HRRR and RAP look good. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 After a solid hour break, it’s lightly snowing in the heart of Richmond again. 32 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Band may be forming over Loudoun, SW to NE, its been developing for past 30 min. Anyone up there see any snow yet? Snow area over eastern third of Loudoun County is greening! The blue associated with it is expanding SE, right toward me. This is SO fascinating!!! I can see this thing develop right before my eyes!!! I AM ALL IN!!! Game is effin' ON!!! I am blasting 70s songs that remind me of snow! I got em playing on my tablet on Spotify, hundreds of em! Man, This is gonna be good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Currently sleet, Spotsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 NWS brought snow totals down by 1". 3-4" for DC. Still not bad. I'm certainly not complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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