Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I want to hear more from the initialization error fella...either he is wearing a halo or carrying a sickle. That was a crap post. If you're going to post something like that then post the NWP diagnostic disco to go with it. I didn't see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tertialmayday Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Actually looking again it may not have been an initialization error, but at this range why are people jumping ship based on a long range model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: Similar setup too. I remember seeing radar waning/not filling in for that particular storm, so I drove 50 miles South of DC to Point Lookout State Park, MD that has 9ish... More like 86 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Its really coming down in ocmd about 2 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I was out on a long, refreshing jebwalk. It was shweet cool weather. Not a drop of rain. Not a single nanotechnological speck of snow. I always expected a coating of snow on the car. When you reside here in northern Virginia, You have got to keep expectations extremely low. This way - if the snow arrives, its an unbelievable overperformer. Thats the way to live out each day - and every day is a blast, not a letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Apparently we are reporting Snow showers. Went outside to check, not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, Tertialmayday said: Actually looking again it may not have been an initialization error, but at this range why are people jumping ship based on a long range model Really? That's a bold call to then retract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Waiting on UKMET meteogram but eyeballing/adding up the awful precip individual panels on the meteocentre site suggests between 0.4 and 0.5 QPF for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Waiting on UKMET meteogram but eyeballing/adding up the awful precip individual panels on the meteocentre site suggests between 0.4 and 0.5 QPF for DC. We take, and WE RUN. Even if precip is 0.2" QPF, we take, we RUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I went all in , and if that had been real chips, damn, I would have been totally destitute lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: Waiting on UKMET meteogram but eyeballing/adding up the awful precip individual panels on the meteocentre site suggests between 0.4 and 0.5 QPF for DC. What about NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, Jebman said: I went all in , and if that had been real chips, damn, I would have been totally destitute lmao. Well you said you were expecting a car topper...wishes do come true sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: Well you said you were expecting a car topper...wishes do come true sometimes A car topper is fine. Snow IS snow, after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: Waiting on UKMET meteogram but eyeballing/adding up the awful precip individual panels on the meteocentre site suggests between 0.4 and 0.5 QPF for DC. About 15mm all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Reminds me of the early march 2009 storm. I of course didn't remember it, but looking back at it last year, models looked more and more overwhelming, and then heavy bands of snow saved the day. Could happen here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, yoda said: About 15mm all snow So 1 mm less than 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: About 15mm all snow Beat me to it Yup, about 0.55-0.6” QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: So 1 mm less than 12z? Pretty much. Looks like 14-15mm... its actually a bit colder at the 850s (-4c for majority) and just below 32 degrees for the temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So 1 mm less than 12z? Rounded that's .6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 What is climo snowfall for DCA in December anyways? 3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Reminds me of the early march 2009 storm. I of course didn't remember it, but looking back at it last year, models looked more and more overwhelming, and then heavy bands of snow saved the day. Could happen here I remember March 09 quite fondly... Of course, I lived on the shore then and it was epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Pics of UKMET? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Pretty much. Looks like 14-15mm... its actually a bit colder at the 850s (-4c for majority) and just below 32 degrees for the temp I was at 32/32 earlier and was wondering why I had freezing rain. When I looked at the 850 it showed -4. That is why I asked if anyone could help me understand why freezing rain was falling from the sky instead of snow. I am not that good at reading upper air maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, ATreglown said: I was at 32/32 earlier and was wondering why I had freezing rain. When I looked at the 850 it showed -4. That is why I asked if anyone could help me understand why freezing rain was falling from the sky instead of snow. I am not that good at reading upper air maps. Warm nose in between 850 and sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Not the best looking radar. Hopefully starts blossoming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, caviman2201 said: Warm nose in between 850 and sfc Well, eventually that warm nose cooled to allow huge flakes falling. Now, just a misty kind of light snow due to I am guessing the low moving off shore and redeveloping. Looks like heavier snow will come through again in the wee hours of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 34 minutes ago, Tertialmayday said: Actually looking again it may not have been an initialization error, but at this range why are people jumping ship based on a long range model I still want to know why you said that. We are guilty of many things on this board but making totally false claims about verifiable weather info is not one of them. I can be a complete weenie tool bag but still wouldn't make s*** up. GFS is not just a long range model. It has very high verification scores. Initialization errors are documented on WPC model page. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I have a feeling earlier HRRR model will come to fruition. Later onset of snow, but heavier snow during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, ATreglown said: Well, eventually that warm nose cooled to allow huge flakes falling. Now, just a misty kind of light snow due to I am guessing the low moving off shore and redeveloping. Looks like heavier snow will come through again in the wee hours of the morning. It was probably a layer of just above freezing but thick enough to fully melt the flakes. My guess would somewhere around 900-925mb and probably no warmer than +1-2C. Most models have 925 temp maps. When something like you experienced happens you can take a look at the column and figure out how much trouble you're in. Sounds like you walked the line for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Errr,just stepped outside and back to freezing rain. Much heavier precipitation going on now in central NC that will come this way later. Hope we can cash in on that. Still looks like a winter wonderland out there. I should just be happy for that given its early December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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