dailylurker Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: Radar to the SW looks like something less than good. Looked great earlier but the rain to the east is blossoming and the snow is not. I've been worried about the horrid radar all afternoon and evening. Looks like gfs confirmed what I was worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, dailylurker said: I've been worried about the horrid radar all afternoon and evening. Looks like gfs confirmed what I was worried about. Might not have to stay up for this one. i see nothing that indicate onset is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 23 minutes ago, Midlo Snow Maker said: Yea pretty sad we started as snow and never looked back . A few texts from a AKQ Met was all about the ground Temps, surface Temps and too early in the season their would be no sticking to roads , A total bust. This am all locals were 1/2" to 2" we had that by 6pm Your highway pavements temps are already at 32. Neighborhood roads covered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 For reference, the 12z euro had the .5 line se of the beltway. Around .4 along the corridor and .3 out by Frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3z HRRR looks like flurries start after 1a in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Capital Weather Gang coming in and reminding us that 5-7" is not the expected snowfall. I guess them being conservative was a smart choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tertialmayday Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Gfs had an initilization error, off by 6 hours accounts for errors which occurred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, Chase said: Your highway pavements temps are already at 32. Neighborhood roads covered? Midlo has been all snow. Here in PG Va we had mixing issues. But now even our roads are covered, so I am sure his is as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Tertialmayday said: Gfs had an initilization error, off by 6 hours accounts for errors which occurred Interesting first post. Explain a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I seem to recall a bunch of times when the GFS ended up being dry in the short range. Mostly it was a while ago, so maybe an update changed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Tertialmayday said: Gfs had an initilization error, off by 6 hours accounts for errors which occurred For,your first post that was a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Down to 32/30. This roller coaster ride is typical here in NOVA. A lot of us get excited by the good trends leading up to an event and then get concerned by a late model run that breaks the other way. Based on my 17 years of living in the area, I still feel good about 3-5 IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 FWIW HRRR has heavier bands scooting in south of DC early. Probably wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Not to be a blasphemer, but is there a chance this thing just shuts down way earlier than progged? I’m asking because looking at the radar again and seeing the snow side of the storm basically drying up and not the rain side was a bit disconcerting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, SoCoWx said: Not to be a blasphemer, but is there a chance this thing just shuts down way earlier than progged? I’m asking because looking at the radar again and seeing the snow side of the storm basically drying up and not the rain side was a bit disconcerting. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but we'll be okay once the low begins to develop off the coast and the precipitation will fill in. Everyone always stresses at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Chase said: Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but we'll be okay once the low begins to develop off the coast and the precipitation will fill in. Everyone always stresses at this time. Your right. It's a process and nobody will be under constant heavy returns for 12 hours. Low will get going off the coast and the upper level support from the vort pulling out of the south will fill things back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Chase said: Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but we'll be okay once the low begins to develop off the coast and the precipitation will fill in. Everyone always stresses at this time. To be fair, I’m basically surviving off of Uber driving these days, so I didn’t want it to snow at all. It’s screwed me financially, as weekends are naturally the most profitable, but here we are. If it’s gonna snow, then f*** me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Pretty sure this also happened during 1/7/17 storm. Short range models trended dry, it looked bleak, and we squeezed out 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Current radar Vs Euro at midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Chase said: Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but we'll be okay once the low begins to develop off the coast and the precipitation will fill in. Everyone always stresses at this time. Absolutely we are fine. It's one model that happens to be a more reliable one saying we are headed in the wrong direction. I wouldn't sweat it too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Capital Weather Gang coming in and reminding us that 5-7" is not the expected snowfall. I guess them being conservative was a smart choice #huggers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 hours ago, nj2va said: Just back from dinner in shirlington. Eyes could have been deceiving me but thought I saw a flurry or two. I've seen this many times where at the very end of runs...the gfs would end up the driest and most southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 One of the things that has worried me with this system... Much like the Boxing Day storm in 2004, which also brought accumulating snows to South TX and the deep South, the increasing and pivoting upper jet streak to our north will no doubt optimize frontogenetic banding. That's a good thing, right? Well, depends on where you are. As the upper jet streak becomes more N-S oriented (instead of more zonal as it was Friday), while also blossoming to 160-180+ kts, the low-level ageostrophic (isallobaric) flow will become more W-NW instead of it's usual northerly component. When that happens, especially east of the mountains (with downslope), that tends to sharpen the drying and this precip gradient on the west side, especially (again) as the upper jet increases in magnitude. IIRC, the Dec 26, 2004 storm walloped eastern VA and the DelMarVa while minimal amounts were observed farther west along and especially west of the I-95 corridor. I remember at Wakefield VA, we had a little over 3" at the office, 1" less than 15 miles to the west, and 11-14" less than 25 miles east toward Newport News. Strong frontogenesis even in the absence of much (if any) elevated instability. Thus the "all or nothing" setup, with very little longitudinal width of the 1-4" amounts. And with the surface and ground temps, we need the rates. Again going back to the all or nothing outcome -- 33/32 with mod heavy rates vs. 34-35 and light snow having a hard time accumulating. Here's hoping that western edge will be well west of the fall line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 HRRR is farther West FWIW Think happy thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 While you stress, radar really is filling in overhead. Seems HRRR'ish too. http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxstate_br.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I want to hear more from the initialization error fella...either he is wearing a halo or carrying a sickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 For whatever reason, we in the RIC area always seem to dry slot as the storm transfers to the coast. But for my area SE of RIC, we got a bit screwed because not only the dry slot but had to deal with several hours of sleet and freezing rain which have cut our totals considerably! But hey, it's Dec. 8th so I will take what I can get!! This is an early season treat!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: Similar setup too. I remember seeing radar waning/not filling in for that particular storm, so I drove 50 miles South of DC to Point Lookout State Park, MD that has 9ish... Iirc, I don't think D.C. was ever forecast to get much last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Iirc, I don't think D.C. was ever forecast to get much last January. Good point. I bow out. Good luck to all and goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: While you stress, radar really is filling in overhead. Seems HRRR'ish too. http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxstate_br.php The little spots showing in the beam shadow to the SW are usually the first sign that snow is reaching the ground. That area is usually what I watch for onset here. Still an hour away at least. Going to be pretty light though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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