Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Question. Do we trust models like GFS/Euro this close up? Heck, do we trust short range models over nowcasting in the next few hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:32 AM, Bob Chill said: Gfs is going to scare mitch Expand Too tired to get scared. Whatever. ...I'm calling it a day and let whatever happens happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:36 AM, Cobalt said: Question. Do we trust models like GFS/Euro this close up? Heck, do we trust short range models over nowcasting in the next few hours? Expand Euro was great for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 GFS about 0.2" of precipitation at DCA. Pretty significant shift SE from 18z. Demoralizing bust if accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:31 AM, wxdude64 said: Between that forecast and the stick pic, I'd give that forecast a 0 on verification. Expand Yea pretty sad we started as snow and never looked back . A few texts from a AKQ Met was all about the ground Temps, surface Temps and too early in the season their would be no sticking to roads , A total bust. This am all locals were 1/2" to 2" we had that by 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Convective feedback. Or something. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:38 AM, Bob Chill said: Convective feedback. Or something. Lol Expand That's bad bidniz for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I think GFS isn't credible and just did a hiccup. May be the snow bro part of me, but I think it is a hiccup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Correct me if I’m wrong, but the radar seems to indicate, in typical winter in Virginia fashion, that a dry slot is currently ripping its way through the precip shield, getting closer to Richmond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:40 AM, leesburg 04 said: That's bad bidniz for everyone Expand Gfs is basically a trace through the metros and burbs through 7am. I kinda doubt that part but the good stuff isn't until tomorrow so the run in general sucked. Ji should be by soon to express his feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:41 AM, Cobalt said: I think GFS isn't credible and just did a hiccup. May be the snow bro part of me, but I think it is a hiccup Expand Welp, Rgem did it too, but not as much as the Gfs. Last minute busts are always possible in this business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:42 AM, SoCoWx said: Correct me if I’m wrong, but the radar seems to indicate, in typical winter in Virginia fashion, that a dry slot is currently ripping its way through the precip shield, getting closer to Richmond? Expand It has been modeled to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:38 AM, Bob Chill said: Convective feedback. Or something. Lol Expand Yeah, something....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:43 AM, mitchnick said: Welp, Rgem did it too, but not as much as the Gfs. Last minute busts are always possible in this business. Expand I'm wonder what GFS is running in to. It just keeps us dry until 9 am. I guess we'll see To Cheer Y'all up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:44 AM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It has been modeled to do that. Expand This is 13 hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:44 AM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It has been modeled to do that. Expand Cool. When is it expected to pass again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 1:58 AM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Anyone have a good site to see VA live cams? Expand www.511va.com (streaming) or trafficland.com (every 2 seconds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:46 AM, SoCoWx said: Cool. When is it expected to pass again? Expand Look again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:45 AM, Cobalt said: I'm wonder what GFS is running in to. It just keeps us dry until 9 am. I guess we'll see To Cheer Y'all up Expand HRRR vs. GFS...hmmm..the radar does look rather anemic right now. Modeled to do so but we are known for epic busts so again I say always nervous until snow actually starts flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I think South overperforming could help us out in the long run. Totally unscientific, but I believe that helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 CMC is better but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Wow. GFS really lays an egg all of a sudden. Hopefully something odd going on, that's a huge change after a consistent good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:50 AM, Amped said: CMC is better but not by much. Expand It did the same thing as the RGEM, with pushing the higher QPF east but broadening the cutoff on the N/W side. Pretty clear that the NAM is on its own right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Well the NAMs and RGEM were fine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:51 AM, snjókoma said: It did the same thing as the RGEM, with pushing the higher QPF east but broadening the cutoff on the N/W side. Pretty clear that the NAM is on its own right now. Expand Yeah, NWS is pretty glad they didn't go WSW right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:51 AM, yoda said: Well the NAMs and RGEM were fine... Expand Rgem cut back and is around 60-70% of Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Large flakes still flying. Accumulating quite quickly now. Total paste everywhere including roadways! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Radar to the SW looks like something less than good. Looked great earlier but the rain to the east is blossoming and the snow is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 So it's looking like there's no reason to stay up to wait to see the first snowflakes in Fairfax? Was hoping for it around midnight, but radar doesn't indicate that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.