Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Didn't see the rgem mentioned. It expanded the .3 line NW and pulled .4-.5 to the east. Differences in qpf seem to be mostly noise so far with 0z but the western extent is locking in and juicing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Rgem hiccups with a wobble to the east https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017120900&fh=39&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:08 AM, Eskimo Joe said: The categories on that map are really confusing. They could've gone: Coating to 2", 2-4", 4-7".They were a bit think skinned about busting a real forecast so they came up with this scheme to never be accountable. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:02 AM, Cobalt said: HRRR now has onset 3 hours earlier, at 04z. Hmmm 06z looks good Expand That's also the 1km simulated reflectivity, which does include virga. Actual accumulation is a bit after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:12 AM, mitchnick said: It's DC. Expand It's Arlington. There are ample places in DC we could get accurate measurements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 RGEM 18z and 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:11 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Sounds more like they're trying not to be wrong, lol exactly right. It really is s chicken way to predict a snowfall. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I've honestly never been a fan of CWG forecasts. They are always super conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:16 AM, Negnao said: It's Arlington. There are ample places in DC we could get accurate measurements. Expand Missed my point. The politics of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 That RGEM run looks to give Salisbury only a few more inches. They already have six on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:18 AM, osfan24 said: I've honestly never been a fan of CWG forecasts. They are always super conservative. Expand The fact is, most people in DC hate snow, so they're catering to that mentality. All the tv stations do it too. They do it in Baltimore too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 RGEM cuts down on precipitation for the most part except in the N/W suburbs, where its a little better than its 18z run. Also moves the 0.5"+ line about 25 miles to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:20 AM, osfan24 said: That RGEM run looks to give Salisbury only a few more inches. They already have six on the ground. Expand Friend of mine just sent me a pic and he's only got 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 31f closing in on 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:21 AM, snjókoma said: RGEM cuts down on precipitation for the most part except in the N/W suburbs, where its a little better than its 18z run. Also moves the 0.5"+ line about 25 miles to the SE. Expand Wonder why RGEM went SE and NAM went NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Nice midlo! What was your forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Wow... thats awesome Midlo... how much snow were you supposed to get? ETA: Ninja'd by Bob Chill lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:22 AM, Cobalt said: Wonder why RGEM went SE and NAM went NW Expand It's noise. The qpf range hasn't moved much all day except the western folks are improving but we expected that so no suprise. And I'm happy for them too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Finally reaching the 1" mark after dealing with several hours of sleet and freezing rain. Big flakes flying now! Still 32/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 31/23 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:23 AM, Bob Chill said: Nice midlo! What was your forecast? Expand A pathetic one by all media and nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 36F, overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Holy crap. Your forcast was for little to no? Lol. That's a huge bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:28 AM, Midlo Snow Maker said: A pathetic one by all media and nws Expand Between that forecast and the stick pic, I'd give that forecast a 0 on verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Gfs is going to scare mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:32 AM, Bob Chill said: Gfs is going to scare mitch Expand Probably noise. Either way, I'm sweating. This is gonna be fairly close, but Nam looked good, and that's all that matters I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Oh man what is the goofus doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 On 12/9/2017 at 3:07 AM, Bob Chill said: Hrrr onset is suspect. We're not an hour away from precip and 3 hours away from measurable. Hope I'm wrong but I call bust on that. Expand The HRRR is early on onset, but it doesn’t get us to 0.1” qpf until 7am, so it isn’t like it is trying to bring it in hot and heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 GFS is southeast of every run in the last 24hrs. Hopefully a hiccup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 HRRR has 3" plus West of DC by 17z. A bit suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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