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December 8/9th Storm - STORM MODE THREAD

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted

I know we're in storm mode so I hope i don't get in trouble for this...

The old saying that "models won't help us this close" or "modes lose skill the closer to an event" is blasphemy. 

Think chaos theory or the butterfly effect. Models work the same way to an extent. The more incorrect a model is early on, the more incorrect it will be farther out. 

This in turn means the closer to an event, or hour 0/6 the better a model should get. Looking at the models up to the last viable run is a good way to catch last second trends.

The old adage that models lose their skill the closer to the storm we get is just BS. If they did it wouldn't make sense since they would just be worst the farther out in time they went. 

-----

I hope we continue to see a trend in more phasing and increased neg tilt in the 00z runs tonight. Then it is "nowcast time" as the event will be on top of us. Though i guess the 6z runs could sneak in there. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Are the models keying on to the storm drying a bit over our area as the coastal strengthens? I have noticed that every run today has shown a further west precipitation shield but actually some drying over the DCA/BWI area.

I only saw that on the 18z GFS... I don't think it was there on the NAMs or the RGEM

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rmcwahoo

rmcwahoo

Posted
Posted

From Wakefield, quite the positive forecast discussion for those of us in the Richmond metro area:

  

All signs are now pointing to mainly snow generally west of a
South Hill to Richmond to Salisbury MD line tonight, as even the
GFS which is now the warmest model keeps the entire column
below freezing in these areas. Just on the cold side of the
rain/snow line, there will likely be a moderate to locally heavy
snow where is is juxtapositioned with the best upper f-gen
forcing and associated banding features. As such, have opted to
go with a winter storm warning for Dorchester/Wicomico County,
southwest to Caroline, and then through the western RIC metro
and SW to Mecklenburg County. Could see 6 inches of snow in this
area, although the evening shift will need to watch for how
long this heavier snow burst lasts tonight which may inflate
totals even more. Additional snow expected into Saturday with
the deformation axis associated with the upper trough moving
overhead. The snow should diminish west to east Saturday aftn
into evening.

Overall, will go with storm totals of 4 to 6 inches in the
warning area with locally higher amounts especially in the MD.
Since the snow started even earlier than anticipated, it would
not shock me to see 7 inch amounts in a narrow corridor west of
RIC as well. In the advy areas, will go with 2 to 4 inches,
although the eastern advy may see some lesser amts due to more
rain mixing in.

The rain/snow line may actually shift westward a little bit as
the low develops along the coast as the upper short wave
approaches. Do not think this will be of huge consequence to
snow totals in the warning area, but none the less it should be
noted it could lower totals slightly on the eastern side of RIC
into the Tri Cities. Thus, the reason this area stays in the
winter weather advy.
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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, rmcwahoo said:

From Wakefield, quite the positive forecast discussion for those of us in the Richmond metro area:

  


All signs are now pointing to mainly snow generally west of a
South Hill to Richmond to Salisbury MD line tonight, as even the
GFS which is now the warmest model keeps the entire column
below freezing in these areas. Just on the cold side of the
rain/snow line, there will likely be a moderate to locally heavy
snow where is is juxtapositioned with the best upper f-gen
forcing and associated banding features. As such, have opted to
go with a winter storm warning for Dorchester/Wicomico County,
southwest to Caroline, and then through the western RIC metro
and SW to Mecklenburg County. Could see 6 inches of snow in this
area, although the evening shift will need to watch for how
long this heavier snow burst lasts tonight which may inflate
totals even more. Additional snow expected into Saturday with
the deformation axis associated with the upper trough moving
overhead. The snow should diminish west to east Saturday aftn
into evening.

Overall, will go with storm totals of 4 to 6 inches in the
warning area with locally higher amounts especially in the MD.
Since the snow started even earlier than anticipated, it would
not shock me to see 7 inch amounts in a narrow corridor west of
RIC as well. In the advy areas, will go with 2 to 4 inches,
although the eastern advy may see some lesser amts due to more
rain mixing in.

The rain/snow line may actually shift westward a little bit as
the low develops along the coast as the upper short wave
approaches. Do not think this will be of huge consequence to
snow totals in the warning area, but none the less it should be
noted it could lower totals slightly on the eastern side of RIC
into the Tri Cities. Thus, the reason this area stays in the
winter weather advy.

Positive for us in the DC area too. rain/snow line shifting westward must mean the low is stronger or the storm will be further West

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

I kind of laughed after I posted it... but.... I believe in giving every model a chance at the beginning of the year! :)

It's a tool. And every now and then a useful one. But in seriousness it can be of some value in short range picking up on some banding. It did on with picking up where the heaviest bands would set up during the second half of the 2016 storm. It nailed the clipper in early January up here last year. But it seems to lose accuracy fast past 6 hours or so. 

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Woah cheif, who are you? Post police? Calm the freak down and let the man be excited!!!!

Friendly advice. I know what I’m doing, you don’t. 

 

I never said said he couldn’t be excited. Just temper that excitement while posting

 

and I am the post police. You need a refresher?

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