stormtracker Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We're completely locked in. Time to let chips fall. Upside will come from banding and downside will come from subsidence in between banding. Models are so close with qpf and placement that there's really nothing left to pick apart. The ONLY thing that gives me a tiny bit of pause is what the NAMs are showing with the ebbs and flows as the waves ripple up. We want the final wave to be on steroids as it passes our latitude. Weird hunch that somebody is gonna get upgraded tomm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: From the 12z nam. Shows strong potential for banding just NW of I95. I was thinking of putting my finger on the boom button but I'm holding back. Is that the MoCo/HoCo death band getting ready for sound check? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Hi guys and gals. Good luck to you all upstream from me here in Greensboro, NC. It appears that the NAM-3km has done the best with the snow/mix/rain boundary lines thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: Weird hunch that somebody is gonna get upgraded tomm. Sure looks like it. Temps have trended better and qpf has trended better for the corridor over the last 24 hours. Every run nudges the sweet spot closer across all guidance. HRRR is doing it right now. lol. I do think the precip sweet spot for snow will remain east of 95. That would be a pretty sig jump at this stage. However, the highest snow totals could easily end up away from the highest QPF. Might be to the west of EZF or maybe upper moco/hills of hoco. Temps problems to the SE will almost certainly keep ratios a good bit below 10:1. I could see someone in a favored climo location end up close to 10:1 though. There could be a complete pasting somewhere SE of DC as well. All I know is my yard is buffered by a ton of room between qpf and temp problems. hee hee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're completely locked in. Time to let chips fall. Upside will come from banding and downside will come from subsidence in between banding. Models are so close with qpf and placement that there's really nothing left to pick apart. The ONLY thing that gives me a tiny bit of pause is what the NAMs are showing with the ebbs and flows as the waves ripple up. We want the final wave to be on steroids as it passes our latitude. It’s nice to see how consistent the models are with QPF totals. There’ll be a lot of nowcasting to see where the bands set up but I wouldn’t be surprised if just NW of 95 has some good bands, like we usually see. Also, this is a non-complicated setup which also helps. No threading the needle as we close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're completely locked in. Time to let chips fall. Upside will come from banding and downside will come from subsidence in between banding. Models are so close with qpf and placement that there's really nothing left to pick apart. The ONLY thing that gives me a tiny bit of pause is what the NAMs are showing with the ebbs and flows as the waves ripple up. We want the final wave to be on steroids as it passes our latitude. It's 0.75 line is around 10 miles or less from my house. The NAM has got us scrambling and worries me about our forecast west of DC. THe odels have been hinting at some type of banding structure. Tough to know exactly where. The NAM 500h vorticity really supports the idea that the 12Z nAM was too dry across DC. The southern stream lifts across the area and I think it is the reason that the NAM started spicing up its forecast west and southwest of DC. I still worry about temps especially for us guys southeast of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Is that the MoCo/HoCo death band getting ready for sound check? You can see several other models are highlighting an area of enhanced precip from Moco all the way to NW Jersey. Would not be surprised if a band sets up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: It’s nice to see how consistent the models are with QPF totals. There’ll be a lot of nowcasting to see where the bands set up but I wouldn’t be surprised if just NW of 95 has some good bands, like we usually see. Also, this is a non-complicated setup which also helps. No threading the needle as we close in. Very true. It's a good set-up in that regard, no waiting for stuff to develop on top of us or anything like that. Just checked the radar loop, and that's a nice feed of moisture making a beeline right at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: It's 0.75 line is around 10 miles or less from my house. The NAM has got us scrambling and worries me about our forecast west of DC. THe odels have been hinting at some type of banding structure. Tough to know exactly where. The NAM 500h vorticity really supports the idea that the 12Z nAM was too dry across DC. The southern stream lifts across the area and I think it is the reason that the NAM started spicing up its forecast west and southwest of DC. I still worry about temps especially for us guys southeast of the city. The one thing you guys have going is that it's the lowest sun angle of the season and the start of the event has a decently low Td to help better wet bulbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: It's 0.75 line is around 10 miles or less from my house. The NAM has got us scrambling and worries me about our forecast west of DC. THe odels have been hinting at some type of banding structure. Tough to know exactly where. The NAM 500h vorticity really supports the idea that the 12Z nAM was too dry across DC. The southern stream lifts across the area and I think it is the reason that the NAM started spicing up its forecast west and southwest of DC. I still worry about temps especially for us guys southeast of the city. Yea, those sw-ne aligned bands happen with just about every event like this...and they always seem to set up in the climo favored locations. Could be terrain enhanced because over the years the consistency is hard to ignore. My yard got lucky in the 13/14 and 14/15 with more than a few events where the bands just liked my yard. That luck is probably over....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Will probably be deleted... But Loudon east will be in a WSW tomorrow for 4-8. Just a hunch. And I don't buy the less than 10:1 rations when the upper layers so cold. A stronger than expected system will filter in colder air from the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, those sw-ne aligned bands happen with just about every event like this...and they always seem to set up in the climo favored locations. Could be terrain enhanced because over the years the consistency is hard to ignore. My yard got lucky in the 13/14 and 14/15 with more than a few events where the bands just liked my yard. That luck is probably over....lol Well, don't know about that...the Bob Chill Deathband is a climatological feature in MoCo, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 For all the people saying stickage issues Salisbury is already turning white lolhttp://www.salisbury.edu/webcam/hh/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 snowing in the northern neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, Beachin said: For all the people saying stickage issues Salisbury is already turning white lolhttp://www.salisbury.edu/webcam/hh/ All over MD Eastern shore is rocking http://www.chart.state.md.us/map/fullscreenmap.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Don't some of our really good storms start a bit early? Just a question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Ger said: Don't some of our really good storms start a bit early? Just a question I think most storms do that. Blizzard of 2016 had onset a couple hours earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Ger said: Don't some of our really good storms start a bit early? Just a question The precip is actually going to retreat SE before filling back in later. None of what you see on radar is making it here and it was never forecast to either. Most of us won't see snow start to fall for another 8 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Pretty good fetch coming off of the gulf now: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/h5-loop-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18z RGEM bumps totals NW; very similar to other guidance. 0.5” just touching the SE side of DC. It’s go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: The precip is actually going to retreat SE before filling back in later. None of what you see on radar is making it here and it was never forecast to either. Most of us won't see snow start to fall for another 8 hours But what if start seeing flurries in NE DC? Asking for a friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I imagine if this precip we're seeing SE were to creep up and stay here for a couple hours that would be a huge surprise. Probably won't happen though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Casualbrain said: Pretty good fetch coming off of the gulf now: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/h5-loop-wv.html That is so fetch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Ger said: But what if start seeing flurries in NE DC? Asking for a friend Nothing will amount to anything until much later. If we get flurries it will just be fun to look at. There will be no impact on travel and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z RGEM bumps totals NW; very similar to other guidance. 0.5” just touching the SE side of DC. It’s go time. This run even has a reverse-heat island tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Models keep on extending the storm end time. Almost looks like 20 hours of continuous snowfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Models keep on extending the storm end time. Almost looks like 20 hours of continuous snowfall! Seeing that. Still snowing at 0z Sunday!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Models keep on extending the storm end time. Almost looks like 20 hours of continuous snowfall! Didn't you just post in the obs and disco thread that models won't help too much and nowcasting is almost here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Scraff said: Seeing that. Still snowing at 0z Sunday!? Looks like close to moderate snow 0z Sunday HRRR doesn't go out that far, but the NAM is pretty close too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, fourseasons said: Didn't you just post in the obs and disco thread that models won't help too much and nowcasting is here? Yeah I'm just pointing something out. Also, every model that shows more snow, or longer duration of snow is always right. It's rule #37 in the weenie weather rulebook Just kidding. But in all seriousness, I'm not sure how credible the HRRR is, but that seems like one of the best for short range, but it doesn't go out to the end of the storm yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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