aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Ashville NC is getting pummeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 RAP sim radar- this doesn't happen! When the first wave saturates the area with steady precip, the 2nd wave from a stronger coastal low doesn't dry up in these bursts, especially with moisture over great lakes. There should be more precip on the back side. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Seeing some decent pressure drops off the SE coast now. Like seeing them hugging the coast. Hard to really go by these but could they be suggesting the low might form closer to the coast then model projections? Baroclinic Zone for the win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Sref had a nice increase in qpf and the mean snowfall at DCA is now 5.33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 hour ago, PDIII said: Alright so Dave is an experienced Met. he has been doing this for a really long time. People who have the training to do this kind of stuff will often look at the computer output and take other factors in to consideration... And then make their own forecast. He is probablty taking in to account temps and rates.. but who knows. I do agree with him.. this time at least. He seems to be getting later and later with these calls.. 1ST CALL (when its already snowing) at this point is a bit silly... Richmond will be and normally is right on the line high/low totals .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 41 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Ashville NC is getting pummeled Good sign that the precip shield is robust on the NW edge. However, there is still the stupid GLL which may mess it up as it heads our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 234 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 ...Accumulating snowfall expected into Saturday... .A storm system now developing in the Deep South will bring snow to areas primarily east of Interstate 81, with heavy snow likely along and just east of Blue Ridge and into the North Carolina and Virginia Piedmont. VAZ017-033-045>047-059-090345- /O.UPG.KRNK.WW.Y.0012.171208T2100Z-171209T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KRNK.WS.W.0004.171208T2100Z-171209T2100Z/ Floyd-Franklin-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Charlotte- Including the cities of Floyd, Rocky Mount, Lynchburg, Appomattox, and Keysville 234 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected, with the higher amounts occuring near the Blue Ridge from Patrick County Virginia to Watauga County North Carolina. * WHERE...Counties along and east of the Blue Ridge Parkway. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: He seems to be getting later and later with these calls.. 1ST CALL (when its already snowing) at this point is a bit silly... Richmond will be and normally is right on the line high/low totals ... He's using Kuchera ratios like these for Temp http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=ratioku&rh=2017120818&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt= and snowfall ratios http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_012h&rh=2017120818&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Winter Storm Warning for Charles, St. Mary's, Calvert, and King George. Winter Weather Advisories expanded back to 81 (minus Shenandoah and Frederick, VA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 252 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 MDZ016>018-VAZ057-090400- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0020.171209T0500Z-171209T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0004.171209T0000Z-171209T2100Z/ Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-King George- 252 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with highest amounts in southern Calvert and St. Mary`s Counties. * WHERE...In Maryland, Charles, St. Marys and Calvert counties. In Virginia, King George county. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. Temperatures will be close to freezing through the event. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Yes, I know its the SREFs but DC now within the 0.5” contour in the 15z update, right in line with other guidance. 3-5” seems like a good call for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Yes, I know its the SREFs but DC now within the 0.5” contour in the 15z update, right in line with other guidance. 3-5” seems like a good call for DC. The 18z NAM is west with precip...its a great run leading up to gametime....FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Nam edging the heavies NW. Another solid run. Still seems to do some weird things with the waves running offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18z NAM is going to be west some... you can tell comparing the 18z NAM h5 map at 24 with the 12z NAM h5 map at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Nam edging the heavies NW. Another solid run. Still seems to do some weird things with the waves running offshore. Low closer to the coast and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Low closer to the coast and stronger Let’s hope so! We are due a good NAMing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 309 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 MDZ021>023-090415- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WW.Y.0004.171209T0000Z-171210T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.171209T0000Z-171210T0000Z/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset- Including the cities of Cambridge, Salisbury, Crisfield, and Princess Anne 309 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Expect a mix of rain and snow to change to all snow this evening. Rain may briefly mix back in late tonight. Moderate to heavy wet snow expected. Plan on slippery travel conditions. Total wet snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected tonight into Saturday. Locally higher amounts are possible. * WHERE...Dorchester, Wicomico and Somerset Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for wet snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3k is similar with a more broken precip shield at times. Still good qpf totals. I'm not sure if I think the high resolution is showing an accurate depiction of the ebbs and flows with the waves or the resolution is working against the model's accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 DC ~0.55 QPF I believe on 18z 12km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Lol I know to ignore it given the fact that there is no precip hole but that weird snow hole on the NAM right over me gives me a spooky feeling. Anyways it really is a great run. .5" pushed North and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 NAMs are the same with the final wave/enhanced precip coming on in earnest around 7-9am or so. Could be some nice rates tomorrow through early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 3k is similar with a more broken precip shield at times. Still good qpf totals. I'm not sure if I think the high resolution is showing an accurate depiction of the ebbs and flows with the waves or the resolution is working against the model's accuracy. Hmmm. I would think by now, nearly within 24 hours of start time, it wouldn't necessarily be showing that kind of inconsistently still. But what you say about that makes sense. I guess the important thing in terms of the big picture is that it's consistent and in line with all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: DC ~0.55 QPF I believe on 18z 12km NAM Pretty significant NW bump in the 0.5 line....you gotta like trending in the right direction as game time approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Nice shift! It's transferring energy to the coastal into more of a comma head shape. Significant totals now for NYC and Boston. Opens the door for higher totals here in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Nice shift! It's transferring energy to the coastal into more of a comma head shape. Significant totals now for NYC and Boston. Opens the door for higher totals here in the next few runs. That's what I was waiting to see!! Finally showing up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, yoda said: DC ~0.55 QPF I believe on 18z 12km NAM Looks like 18z 3km NAM is the same -- 0.55" to 0.60" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 From the 12z nam. Shows strong potential for banding just NW of I95. I was thinking of putting my finger on the boom button but I'm holding back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On the 3k NAM, 0.5” is just west of DC but the 0.75” line is from EZF to extreme SE PG County. Another nudge NW would be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, nj2va said: On the 3k NAM, 0.5” is just west of DC but the 0.75” line is from EZF to extreme SE PG County. Another nudge NW would be nice! We're completely locked in. Time to let chips fall. Upside will come from banding and downside will come from subsidence in between banding. Models are so close with qpf and placement that there's really nothing left to pick apart. The ONLY thing that gives me a tiny bit of pause is what the NAMs are showing with the ebbs and flows as the waves ripple up. We want the final wave to be on steroids as it passes our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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