Joshfsu123 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Not an obs thread but thought this could be helpful for folks later, but I like this radar link for the DC area but you can also pick your area as needed: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-1-12 Too bad it didn't make another 25 mile or so push north or else we'd get started earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Obs thread coming folks. Keep model discussion here, still storm mode in this thread. please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Joshfsu123 said: Not an obs thread but thought this could be helpful for folks later, but I like this radar link for the DC area but you can also pick your area as needed: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-1-12 Too bad it didn't make another 25 mile or so push north or else we'd get started earlier. A lot of Virga out there! We need the Virga to saturate though! https://mping.ou.edu/display/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, mappy said: Obs thread coming folks. Keep model discussion here, still storm mode in this thread. please. There already is one. Could you pin it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, cae said: There already is one. Could you pin it? I think mappy meant an obs thread for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: I think mappy meant an obs thread for this storm My bad - I thought that thread was for this storm. It was started 4 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, cae said: My bad - I thought that thread was for this storm. It was started 4 hours ago. Ah i see. I think that was created at the same time Randy made this one. I don't have the power to clean up threads, but showme made an obs thread for this storm. I'll let a green tagger clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Euro in line with other guidance...and it is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: Euro in line with other guidance...and it is cold Still same QPF of ~0.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Still same QPF of ~0.5"? 0.4"-0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Still same QPF of ~0.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 12z EURO 4-5" along I-95... 6-10 SE MD... 2" line is west of I-81... ofc, this is if you believe the snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Take this as you wish http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2017120812/washdc/ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_8.png Access is forbidden since it is a WxBell file. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: Access is forbidden since it is a WxBell file. I edited my post and just put in the snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 closer view of euro precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z EURO 4-5" along I-95... 6-10 SE MD... 2" line is west of I-81... ofc, this is if you believe the snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Keep hugging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 0z Euro precip: Vs 12z: Looks like a good tick NW to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Probably will be off by 1" or maybe less. Temps stay near freezing, and if we can get accumulating snow before daybreak, even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 What kind of ratios are realistic in the DC area once this starts to stick? Is 5:1 too pessimistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, dukeblue219 said: What kind of ratios are realistic in the DC area once this starts to stick? Is 5:1 too pessimistic? For DCA maybe 7:1. I95 and West could be looking at 8:1-10:1 with 10:1 being if we're lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Downstream 12z GFS ensembles have the NAO going from -3 to +2 in about 24 hours as the storm cuts right through greenland. These are unnatural happenings effected by a suppression of potential energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Nice little Middleburg bullseye on those maps. 2-3 seems realistic for IAD and west. Maybe a little more closer to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 DT first call map is pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Goal posts have narrowed recent runs for DC Considering ratios and such GFS: 2-4" EURO: 2-4" UKIE: 3-5" NAM: 2-4" RGEM: 2-4" Looking real good for a solid early December event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: DT first call map is pretty sweet I am just curious how you can have a "first call" map when it is already snowing in half of Virginia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I am just curious how you can have a "first call" map when it is already snowing in half of Virginia? This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dereknel015 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 His Totals for Richmond look low? most models have 6+ I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, dereknel015 said: His Totals for Richmond look low? most models have 6+ I thought. Alright so Dave is an experienced Met. he has been doing this for a really long time. People who have the training to do this kind of stuff will often look at the computer output and take other factors in to consideration... And then make their own forecast. He is probablty taking in to account temps and rates.. but who knows. I do agree with him.. this time at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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