Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: Happy Birthday America Also shows 1% chance of a foot of snow! Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Looking at Annaoplis the snow totals maps decreased some today overall Bummer . Not really. Precip gradient seems out of wack here. General precip moved NW, but the 0.4-0.5" precip gradient isn't that big. That won't happen during the storm, because bands will make the gradient very big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I'm not sure if this has been posted, but weather.us has a nice tool for anyone who wants to know what the Euro is saying for their backyard. You can enter your neighborhood and it will give you a meteogram showing the snow depth predicted by both the Euro Op and the EPS. (We're a little close in to be using the EPS, but that should be useful for future events.) Below is the output for Towson. Next update should be around 3:30. https://weather.us/forecast/4371582-towson/ensemble/euro/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Ukie not quite as good as yesterday, but looks like consensus of around .5", give or take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Mizzap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie not quite as good as yesterday, but looks like consensus of around .5", give or take for BWI, estimate based on mm maps would be between .55-.6" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Ensembles shouldn't be used this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: for BWI, estimate based on mm maps would be between .55-.6" qpf 12z UKIE meteogram at DC shows 15/16mm (~ 0.6 QPF) precip -- all snow. 2mT sits at 32 for duration... 850s are -2 to -4 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z UKIE meteogram at DC shows 16mm precip -- all snow. 2mT sits at 32 for duration... 850s are -2 to 4 again Ukie is still the top end of the blend. One more op to go before full lock in mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Read what I wrote above it Doesn't matter. Don't post it this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Ukie is still the top end of the blend. One more op to go before full lock in mode. so let's ponder while we have the time if Euro comes in at .2", do we throw the rest of the models away? if Euro comes in at .75", do we toss the consensus (Ukie being close to that)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: so let's ponder while we have the time if Euro comes in at .2", do we throw the rest of the models away? if Euro comes in at .75", do we toss the consensus (Ukie being close to that)? I don't think we'll be pondering anything honestly. I expect the euro to come in right in between everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 19 minutes ago, cae said: I'm not sure if this has been posted, but weather.us has a nice tool for anyone who wants to know what the Euro is saying for their backyard. You can enter your neighborhood and it will give you a meteogram showing the snow depth predicted by both the Euro Op and the EPS. (We're a little close in to be using the EPS, but that should be useful for future events.) Below is the output for Towson. Next update should be around 3:30. https://weather.us/forecast/4371582-towson/ensemble/euro/snow This is awesome. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I don't think we'll be pondering anything honestly. I expect the euro to come in right in between everything else. me too, but I was just wondering what others thought since it is an outlier on occasion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Not that we don't have a general consensus at this point, but I'll still be curious in both the 18z and 0z runs for any type of shift. Still hoping for a shift of some heavier precip closer to 95 to put us into Mitchnik's 6-10. GEFS seemed to suggest this was still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: me too, but I was just wondering what others thought since it is an outlier on occasion We're about 12 hours from onset and the event is an established moisture hose getting ready to take aim on us. There's no complicated phase/redevelopment/1-2 punch or all the other things that cause us problems at short leads. This one is pretty straightforward and I'd be shocked if the euro comes out with a groundbreaking run (one way or the other). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: me too, but I was just wondering what others thought since it is an outlier on occasion I think we'd go with consensus. In late March of 2016 the Euro showed a pretty large costal for us (3-6" when accounting for melting) while all others showed out to sea. The consensus was out to sea, and the Euro changed with about 36-48 hours before the storm. Either way we go with consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Event is just about a lock now. Solid consensus and likely won’t see much more than 0.1 +/- on either side now. Euro likely to be close to UK, perhaps not quite as wet along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I don't see why this won't trend NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 12z UKMET Total Precip out to 42 Hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z UKMET Total Precip out to 42 Hours Looks good, but why is the precip gradient nonexistent in the 0.5" area? I'm curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: How much snow does the european model give us? someone told me that is the best one. A few. Temps here in SE VA have running a few degrees warm. I guess that's a good sign for y'all, in terms of perhaps a slight northward adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Looks good, but why is the precip gradient nonexistent in the 0.5" area? I'm curious. A bit of a pivot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Looks good, but why is the precip gradient nonexistent in the 0.5" area? I'm curious. snow band is coastal low centered, like classic noreasters. extent from the low is organized so as to almost be circular. This is why I say it's weird that there isn't more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said: snow band is coastal low centered, like classic noreasters. extent from the low is organized so as to almost be circular. This is why I say it's weird that there isn't more precip. I think we're still battling subsidence from the GL low, but that's just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 For those that like to follow the progress of the snow. Here is the link to VA traffic cams. So far the snow has made it to just south of Roanoke: Snowing in Lynchburg as well. http://www.511virginia.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 30 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Mizzap. Thanks for posting this here Mark. Your snowfall forecast maps always have good verification for my area in Delaware. Good luck and thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: For those that like to follow the progress of the snow. Here is the link to VA traffic cams. So far the snow has made it to just south of Roanoke: http://www.511virginia.org/ Someone told me flakes been falling from sky in Lynchburg last hour but nothing major. A start...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Nice skewt from Dulles this morning. Wet bulb temps impressive for this early in the season. http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KIAD.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Demeter said: Not sure this is the observation thread, but random flakes in Fredericksburg. https://mping.ou.edu https://mping.ou.edu/display/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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