clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The .5 contour is slightly west. The .4 contour is significantly further west. 2M temps hovering right around freezing the entire event. Looks really good for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Overall a very good run again. Temps in DC start out at 38 before the precip starts and then fall down to 33-34 at the onset and down to freezing by 00z. Even in the UHI with the low sun angle that should be ok for accumulations. Out in the suburbs it should be even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 hey guys, please check the thread before posting. lot of repeat posts/thoughts going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Could we get snow early? Precious is already halfway through VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Prob noise again. GFS expands the .40 line NW/moves the .50 line a little SE/and shifts the really heavy stuff NW. We're just about locked in here. Ukie/Euro should seal it up shortly. Yup. Looks like a blend of the 0z and 6z runs. Now we wait to see where the totally unexpected farther NW deathband develops. P.S. I have a guess!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 A message from DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 this storm better deliver. Next weeks precip chances are not really inspiring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ji said: this storm better deliver. Next weeks precip chances are not really inspiring Neither was this ones a day ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 CMC in line with everything else. Lock in continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 What will it take to deepen the gulf vortex and get this storm to tilt north now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 NAM soundings look very nice for dendrite production in our area. With the best profile up at Mt Parkton (shocker). Deep dendrite growth zone and best upward motion within that layer. Should fluff up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CMC in line with everything else. Lock in continues if you go to previous runs, GEM made a real nice move west last run, along with 3 prior hoping for another tick or two https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017120812&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=422 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: A message from DT Looking at this Snow to Liquid Ration is appears that the best areas will be just to the west of the I95 corridor. This will be the area where the will be just enough precip combined with a favorable temp profile for accumulating snow. Based on what I am seeing above, and combining it with the GFS/ Euro precip output, it appears that the lower eastern shore will be fighting melt while anything west of Frederick will be fighting low rates. I like where the DC and Baltimore currently sit with respect to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: NAM soundings look very nice for dendrite production in our area. With the best profile up at Mt Parkton (shocker). Deep dendrite growth zone and best upward motion within that layer. Should fluff up nicely. I should specify at 18z tomorrow. Earlier morning look like junkier flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 At the moment low pressure is racing south out of Canada. In around 15 hours, models have this low slowing over the lakes, releasing energy, and then moving from SW to NE. Why does it do this? Is it so far away for the coastal to catch it's energy before deepening at 500mb over the lakes? I'm trying to paint scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Well Here is DT'S Kuchera 11 inches peak between Cambridge and Salisbury. Really nice rates on the shore will pull temps at or below freezing as all the models are picking up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: NAM soundings look very nice for dendrite production in our area. With the best profile up at Mt Parkton (shocker). Deep dendrite growth zone and best upward motion within that layer. Should fluff up nicely. Since you mentioned MBY -- can you explain how to tell that on soundings? Looking to learn something new in between runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Well Here is DT'S Kuchera 11 inches peak between Cambridge and Salisbury. Really nice rates on the shore will pull temps at or below freezing as all the models are picking up on. Man, whatever they did to the GFS to make UHI's more obvious has gone way overboard. Hope they tweak that a little in the future. Either way I'd take that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 This is another excellent opportunity to, if you haven't already, utilize mPING on your smart phones. The citizen science helps academia and the NWS better understand where the rain snow line is setting up and whether it's virga or actually precipitating. https://mping.nssl.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockabilyJunior Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: At the moment low pressure is racing south out of Canada. In around 15 hours, models have this low slowing over the lakes, releasing energy, and then moving from SW to NE. Why does it do this? Is it so far away for the coastal to catch it's energy before deepening at 500mb over the lakes? I'm trying to paint scenario. I'm a bit of a noob, but I think the relatively warm lakes at this time of year tend to slow down and deepen LP systems as they move over the lakes. Can someone with more experience / knowledge confirm or enlighten me? I used to ilve up in Montreal and I'd hear people talk about this. It was our great hope that these east coast storms would get caught up in great lake lows so as to shift snowfall to Montreal. Funny how now I dread that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, mappy said: Since you mentioned MBY -- can you explain how to tell that on soundings? Looking to learn something new in between runs For TT, you can just click on the map where you want a skew T. Then on the left side of the skew T it highlights the DGZ with red lines. Then look for the omega (upward motion) within that zone. If the strongest upward motion is within the DGZ...congrats in advance! P.S. upward motion is negative on that scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: For TT, you can just click on the map where you want a skew T. Then on the left side of the skew T it highlights the DGZ with red lines. Then look for the omega (upward motion) within that zone. If the strongest upward motion is within the DGZ...congrats in advance! P.S. upward motion is negative on that scale. Thank you. On GFS, strongest is just outside DGZ zone, for my backyard, throughout. Shucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Thank you. On GFS, strongest is just outside DGZ zone, for my backyard, throughout. Shucks. Yeah, GFS soundings actually look a bit worse than what I saw yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, PDIII said: Looking at this Snow to Liquid Ration is appears that the best areas will be just to the west of the I95 corridor. This will be the area where the will be just enough precip combined with a favorable temp profile for accumulating snow. Based on what I am seeing above, and combining it with the GFS/ Euro precip output, it appears that the lower eastern shore will be fighting melt while anything west of Frederick will be fighting low rates. I like where the DC and Baltimore currently sit with respect to this storm. That looks like some serious climo nw bias! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Looking at Annaoplis the snow totals maps decreased some today overall Bummer . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: For TT, you can just click on the map where you want a skew T. Then on the left side of the skew T it highlights the DGZ with red lines. Then look for the omega (upward motion) within that zone. If the strongest upward motion is within the DGZ...congrats in advance! P.S. upward motion is negative on that scale. You mean like this? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2017120812&fh=30&lat=39.11&lon=-77.99&stationID= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: You mean like this? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2017120812&fh=30&lat=39.11&lon=-77.99&stationID= Winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Water vapor http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-west_goes-east/goes-east_16km_psir3&width=640&height=480 I think the trough should be digging more over Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 So based on latest models... LWX will add Carroll and Frederick to the WWA in the 3 PM product Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Happy Birthday America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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