Fozz Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Good morning Mr. Sunshine!! You're in a better spot than me for a change. I haven't even tracked this system much until this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, MillvilleWx said: This is absolutely the type of setup where globals are going to handle the moisture feed better, even close in. Meso’s can be used when precip is knocking to potentially determine banding. HRRR I wouldn’t even use until snow is happening tbh . Exactly. I've tried pointing this out a couple times. There are small waves running the elongated low pressure off the coast. All a meso has to do is screw up a wave with its high resolution and it will effect the entire run. The globals are big heavyweights imho. So much so that we can almost ignore the mesos right now and have high confidence/accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I'm super busy and way behind on the discussion so please forgive me if this has been said...but when using the high res short range models (especially when they are in catch up mode) the best indicator they may continue to trend west is how they made even more significant jumps west down south with the heavy qpf in western NC and eastern TN. When those changes fade over time it might still be correcting and that west trend in the short term could correct agaun 6 hours out next run this precip adjusts west further north in each run. I suck at explaining this but when I see them continue to adjust more in the short range then fade later on I see room for additional shifts in subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Fozz said: You're in a better spot than me for a change. Trust me, your fluff will make up for it. It always happens. I think once you get south of Severna Park, and especially Annapolis, will be where the extra qpf makes a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 One difference that stands out with the RGEM compared to the Nams is measurable precip almost out to Rt 15 by 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Is there consistency in the timing for the "heavier" bands? Still dark early morning hours or into the daylight? We always throw sun angle out there, but in December probably not as much of a concern. Ofcourse, dark hour snow = maximum efficiency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I'm super busy and way behind on the discussion so please forgive me if this has been said...but when using the high res short range models (especially when they are in catch up mode) the best indicator they may continue to trend west is how they made even more significant jumps west down south with the heavy qpf in western NC and eastern TN. When those changes fade over time it might still be correcting and that west trend in the short term could correct agaun 6 hours out next run this precip adjusts west further north in each run. I suck at explaining this but when I see them continue to adjust more in the short range then fade later on I see room for additional shifts in subsequent runs. when you toggle between the current run and last run of the rgem, the really heavy stuff off the coast made a nice jump west, but the area you mentioned is pretty similar https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017120812&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=626 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 If you toggle the RGEM QPF panels you can see the .75 line move NW and the .40/.50 lines move SE. IMHO- that's just noise and not meaningful. RGEM looks just like the globals right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you toggle the RGEM QPF panels you can see the .75 line move NW and the .40/.50 lines move SE. IMHO- that's just noise and not meaningful. RGEM looks just like the globals right now. vehemently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Probably been discussed but this is a seems like a pretty similar set up to the coastal last year that dropped 7 inches in southern maryland and about 1.5 in DC. During that storm I remember the RGEM had us at like 0.5-0.7 the night before and we were all excited whereas the globals were much less. Just another reason to probably roll with the global consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: If you toggle the RGEM QPF panels you can see the .75 line move NW and the .40/.50 lines move SE. IMHO- that's just noise and not meaningful. RGEM looks just like the globals right now. like you said yesterday, it's getting close to nowcasting time. looks like a solid 1-3"+ here and a really nice start time (morning) after a day of clouds. might actually see some street stickage at least in the burbs. looks like a pulse-y system so my guess is the moderate bands would be the ones that get us to the 2-4" criteria. the light stuff might struggle to accumulate, i think. very solid start to winter. early december snow is a luxury here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Trust me, your fluff will make up for it. It always happens. I think once you get south of Severna Park, and especially Annapolis, will be where the extra qpf makes a difference Yea the rgem has stabilized and changes from 6z were just noise. Doesn't mean it's right but it's not in "correction mode" imo. Many of the other high res models that were being posted earlier are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: like you said yesterday, it's getting close to nowcasting time. looks like a solid 1-3"+ here and a really nice start time (morning) after a day of clouds. might actually see some street stickage at least in the burbs. looks like a pulse-y system so my guess is the moderate bands would be the ones that get us to the 2-4" criteria. the light stuff might struggle to accumulate, i think. very solid start to winter. early december snow is a luxury here. Going with a blend of the 12z globals as a final forecast will have a high chance at verifying imho. Globals rarely blow short range forecasts. Mesos do it often. Not in every case of course and right now the meso's do look pretty much exactly like the globals. Once the 12z suite is done it's all about nowcasting. Well, that and HRRR freakouts and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 GFS is much heavier with the batch of precip to our SE this afternoon/evening than 6z but overall similar through 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 GFS has measurable precip inside the SE beltway by 0z. That's new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 People (including local TV Mets) worried about snow not accumulating well because of ground temps and 33-34F air temps should be referred to pictures from TX and LA on social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Friend in Richmond says it's snowing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 GFS a tad slower with slp movement thru 18 hrs.... I think that's good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Low is further West at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Friend in Richmond says it's snowing now rain in Billsburg http://www.history.org/capitolcam/capitol.cfm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Generally lighter with the precip through 15z in our area than 6z, much smaller area of 0.25. yeah, but the deform band goes almost to the Gulf coast https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017120812&fh=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 My 1st guess Nick Krechting WX @RoundHillWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: yeah, but the deform band goes almost to the Gulf coast https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017120812&fh=18 Yeah and I think in total it'll end up similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 0.4" precip is farther West in 12z. 0.5" is in sane place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Prob noise again. GFS expands the .40 line NW/moves the .50 line a little SE/and shifts the really heavy stuff NW. We're just about locked in here. Ukie/Euro should seal it up shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Good run for the Leesburg fringers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 toggle between current and previous run and it does the same thing as the rgem https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017120812&fh=36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 GFS precip map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I am guessing that's mountain enhancement for the 0.5+ QPF marker between I-81 and I-95? And along the BR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: toggle between current and previous run and it does the same thing as the rgem https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017120812&fh=36 My take from 12Z thus far is a tightening of the gradient.....heavier banding notable farther NW with similar decline in totals over a relative short distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.