Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 All it takes is one heavy band to scoot in to DC, and we've got a good 4-7" event. NAM seemed a tad dry but farther West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I am going to assume that the RGEM was posted in the now locked thread... but for reference, here is the 06z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: All it takes is one heavy band to scoot in to DC, and we've got a good 4-7" event. NAM seemed a tad dry but farther West If we could just get a bit more tilt on that trajectory, it would send the real good stuff right on our doorstep. Of course, it would also likely bring warmer temps and the rain closer as well, but the low is pretty far out over the ocean. I'd take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, osfan24 said: If we could just get a bit more tilt on that trajectory, it would send the real good stuff right on our doorstep. Of course, it would also likely bring warmer temps and the rain closer as well, but the low is pretty far out over the ocean. I'd take my chances. Best snows occur when you're at least somewhat bordering the rain by 40/50 miles. Most of our cold temperature events underperform it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Probably not important right now, but mean precip on GEFS is 0.6"-0.7" for DCA Snow is impressive too FWIW, 12/20 ensemble members show 6" of snow for DC. Last time I'll mention Ensembles, cause the ops are most certainly better with precip gradient now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Hi-res data ticked West again it appears (ARW, NMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Probably not important right now, but mean precip on GEFS is 0.6"-0.7" for DCA Snow is impressive too FWIW, 12/20 ensemble members show 6" of snow for DC. Last time I'll mention Ensembles, cause the ops are most certainly better with precip gradient now There's my 6-10 @ Bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: There's my 6-10 @ Bwi Just imagine how much difference another 25-35 mile shift West would be with keeping temps the way they are. 5-8" for the whole DC area excluding Leesburg and such. Far fetched, but anything could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Trying to piece together the 12z RGEM on the precip as the images are jumping around some - but it appears to look good. Link below: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: There's my 6-10 @ Bwi It's not out of the question. Especially the low end. Temps look great, mixing is not an issue and a 2-3 hour period of very heavy snow is in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Trying to piece together the 12z RGEM on the precip - but it appears to look good RGEM seems further west as of 06z. Moderate snows already near DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I hate to extrapolate the HRRR. But it would be a BIG hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: I hate to extrapolate the HRRR. But it would be a BIG hit. I see what you mean. Looks West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: It's not out of the question. Especially the low end. Temps look great, mixing is not an issue and a 2-3 hour period of very heavy snow is in play. I'd probably hedge more towards moderate. Not sure I'd say "very heavy" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: I'd probably hedge more towards moderate. Not sure I'd say "very heavy" Possible that a heavy band sneaks in NW. Not certain, but it's on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 According to the precip map, 12z RGEM has snow exiting the region at 00z SUN... waiting on total QPF map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The WRF should be given no attention and the HRRrrr was atrocious last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Possible that a heavy band sneaks in NW. Not certain, but it's on the table lots of things are on and off the table. HRRR was horrible last year, and definitely shouldn't be extrapolated right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Quote FXUS61 KLWX 081507 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1007 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak surface ridging weakens today. A low pressure system will impact the area tonight through Saturday. High pressure will return Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 06Z GFS/GEFS continued the westward trend that began yesterday afternoon and continued last night. New snow probs show potentially higher snow totals especially across our southeast counties. We'll not be making any headline adjustments or changes to the expected or most likely amounts at this time pending 12Z guidance but if fcst remains consistent or models trend any further west we would need advisories to the Blue Ridge mtns and warnings possibly for King George, St. Marys and Calvert counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 RGEM looks to have faster onset, heavier snow in the beginning, and then moderates, but seems to be slower than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The WRF should be given no attention and the HRRrrr was atrocious last winter. A lot easier and less stressful just going off the gfs/euro combo. Meso's aren't much different if at all anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Still moderate snow during 18z Saturday with R/S line slightly West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I'm expecting an inch or two tomorrow. If it doesn't happen, oh well. If it's more, that will be a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Wow. The RGEM is amazing. Not as impressive blues during the storm, but the onset and ending are what I'm looking for. Looks like a 24 hour event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: A lot easier and less stressful just going off the gfs/euro combo. Meso's aren't much different if at all anyways. You forgot the UKMET But yes, agree with your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 rgem qpf https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017120812&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=396 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 RGEM has less precip through 18z Saturday, but that seems to be a bit of a fluke on its part. Precip is just as far West and goes on for longer, just appears to be not as intense as 6z. I think it's off on the precip by a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 A lot easier and less stressful just going off the gfs/euro combo. Meso's aren't much different if at all anyways. This is absolutely the type of setup where globals are going to handle the moisture feed better, even close in. Meso’s can be used when precip is knocking to potentially determine banding. HRRR I wouldn’t even use until snow is happening tbh . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, yoda said: You forgot the UKMET But yes, agree with your point. Yep. Euro/Ukie/GFS all look about the same now with only small variances in western edge and totals. Small ticks from here I would guess. I would say my yard is locked in for .3-.5 qpf right now. Seriously doubt much upside above .5 but I hope I'm wrong of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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