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December 8/9th Storm - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker

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Off to a great start down here in St. Mary's. Went directly to snow with no mixing so far. About 1" on the grass so far. Ground temps too warm for it to stick on the roads, but with continued rates, that'll probably end up changing in the next few hours. Really a near-ideal setup for tonight with the sfc/850 low position and monster right entrance region on the jet. The guidance showing 10+ is probably too much as ratios are pretty low so far with marginal near-surface temps, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a run close to that number if banding sets up in earnest.

I'm still a bit worried about sleet mixing in when WAA really kicks in aloft tonight, but so far, so good.

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Bob was right earlier about this being pretty locked in. Where banding sets up and who gets 2" vs 4" is still tbd but this isn't an overly complicated setup and we're at a range now where the error it would take to miss decent snow completely would be monumental.   It's not a blockbuster but we're scoring real snow from our first legit threat of the year. And in early December. That feels good. 

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