stormtracker Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 It's that time of the season. Your very first storm mode thread of the season. For those that don't know, this thread is for on topic discussion of the models....no excessive banter or off topic posts (you can banter in the....banter thread!). Mods are instructed to be pretty brutal in these threads, so if you see your content constantly disappearing, you should probably take notice and make better posts or risk getting 5 posted..or worse, suspended. Nobody wants that...so with that being said...keep this thread clean and focused with good posts. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 NAM 12z has started. Maybe the west trend continues? We will find out shortly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 06z NAM was ridiculous in its print out of snow totals. While I would like that area to come NW some, I expect that area to cut off a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Maybe a little further north on precip through 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z NAM was ridiculous in its print out of snow totals. While I would like that area to come NW some, I expect that area to cut off a few inches do you mean 06z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: do you mean 06z NAM? Yes, sorry. Edited my post. I would like the 06z NAM snow totals to be over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I would still put most weight on the globals. This is a moisture laden event with several waves of lp running the coast. Not the best setup for meso's. If they don't get the waves right then the precip will be off. That said....12z nam looking better. Eta: I take back what I said about looking better. NAM might be doing strange things with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I would still put most weight on the globals. This is a moisture laden event with several waves of lp running the coast. Not the best setup for meso's. If they don't get the waves right then the precip will be off. That said....12z nam looking better. Eta: I take back what I said about looking better. NAM might be doing strange things with the precip shield. Yeah, i noticed down south it has some gaps at 21 hours, it looks a bit better than the previous panel...and compared to 6z, the precip is spread back further west down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Sby a mix by 6am on Nam. That's good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, i noticed down south it has some gaps Looks solid anyway now but still, moving around precip maxes down south every run is a flag that the nam is going to be jumpy. Next run will be different again. Globals are pretty steady right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Looks solid anyway now but still, moving around precip maxes down south every run is a flag that the nam is going to be jumpy. Next run will be different again. Globals are pretty steady right now. You, 24 hours, precip is spread way back west, almost to the wv/va border now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: You, 24 hours, precip is spread way back west, almost to the wv/va border now Much better. No doubt the best run on its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You, 24 hours, precip is spread way back west, almost to the wv/va border now Nam coming in line with the globals for western extent is great. Now everything agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Qpf looks lighter than sim radar suggest. Hmmm. At least through 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Qpf looks lighter than sim radar suggest. Hmmm. At least through 27 Verbatim there's some sneaky dryslots that hit us from hours 24-27. But like others have said, not surprising for the NAM to be jumpy with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 12Z NAM QPF up to 0.43. The 00Z NAM was 0.33, so 0.1 higher. Perhaps backs off the intensity of the precip mid morning, hence the slight drop off in total QPF from 0.13 to 0.10 and the 2 M temp bumping up a couple degrees. But as Bob noted, the mesos may not do as well with the precip waves compared to the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3KM NAM looking good up north -- temp at 29 at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, ohwxguy said: 12Z NAM QPF up to 0.43. The 00Z NAM was 0.33, so 0.1 higher. Perhaps backs off the intensity of the precip mid morning, hence the slight drop off in total QPF from 0.13 to 0.10 and the 2 M temp bumping up a couple degrees. But as Bob noted, the mesos may not do as well with the precip waves compared to the globals. So bottom line is the nam increased moisture and is playing slow catch up. Seems like an overall positive to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: 3KM NAM looking good up north -- temp at 29 at onset. you are already out... what ya doing back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Glad to see the models have all expanded the precip shield west. Sometimes living on the back edge can be a good thing. This isnt going to be an intense storm but usually you can get some banding setting up on the back edge. And of course temps should not be an issue out here regardless. After looking like we were going to get shut out I would be happy with the 2 inches being shown anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said: you are already out... what ya doing back? helping others who are still in, duh. 3KM has some areas of .5" showing up along the Howard, Baltimore County/City, Hartford county lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Glad to see the models have all expanded the precip shield west. Sometimes living on the back edge can be a good thing. This isnt going to be an intense storm but usually you can get some banding setting up on the back edge. And of course temps should not be an issue out here regardless. After looking like we were going to get shut out I would be happy with the 2 inches being shown anyways. I feel like we often see these types of storms overperform on the western edge. The precip ends up farther west than expected and seems to get some extra lift in the hillier areas. Combined with slightly colder temps, those places often seem to compare very favorably with the amount of snow that ends up falling around the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: helping others who are still in, duh. 3KM has some areas of .5" showing up along the Howard, Baltimore County/City, Hartford county lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, mappy said: Looks sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Seems as though DC is one 30-45 mile shift NW from the real stuff. Will be interesting to see if we can will that .5 line farther NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I like the 0.5 QPF blob over Fairfax County Wes is near 1.0 QPF, but I don't know if that is all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: All models now have us at .3- .4 qpf. And temps around 30 for entire event. Pretty consistent at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3k NAM gradient thru 29hrs is absurd. ~2" to ~10"+ over 25 miles, 30 miles at best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Ha, WRF is teasing a warning level storm and has real high totals not all that far to the east now. Probably still too far away for that big of a jump at this lead time, but it's interesting. Does seem like a general .3 to .6 across the region on just about all models. Nice to see some consensus building. On to the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, mappy said: .5 imby sweet It feels good to be the jackpot. So I guess at this point I'd like to thank all the little people that meant so much to me. You see.......... Oooops, wrong forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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