Hurricane Agnes Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said: Do models underestimate things like ENSO? December La Nina precip anomaly since 2000: matches this storm nicely. Except with this storm, it has been snowing in the south (including places like San Antonio, TX & New Orleans, LA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 trend difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What is considered WSW criteria in the extreme SE PA Counties adjacent to the Delaware River? It is now 5 inches or more of snow. It used to be 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 hours ago, shemATC said: We were looking good for 4-5" after the last few models (3-6" general area) until this most recent GFS run, which knocked qpf back down and possibly back in the 3" range. We always end up in some sort of screw zone, so anything over 2" is bonus I'm guessing. Okay, I haven't been following but it seems like the further east you are the better. And in our case we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, MGorse said: It is now 5 inches or more of snow. It used to be 4 inches. Nice, with some wind and on a good day I could hit the Delaware River with a Frisbee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 It is now 5 inches or more of snow. It used to be 4 inches. Makes sense then why the WWA and not WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 25 minutes ago, MGorse said: It is now 5 inches or more of snow. It used to be 4 inches. Makes sense then why the WWA and not WSW. Because - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 As far as timing, when is this supposed to move out? I have to head to a Christmas Party in South Philly around 4 - BSL then a long walk from Broad to 3rd. Wondering if I’ll be frolicking in still falling snow or just trudging through the whole of the accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Because -My post was meant to imply it makes sense that they have a wwa and not wsw I was not questioning the pros at the nws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 27 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Because - My post was meant to imply it makes sense that they have a wwa and not wsw I was not questioning the pros at the nws. Gotcha... although I figured you guys would wonder why the totals weren't a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 As far as timing, when is this supposed to move out? I have to head to a Christmas Party in South Philly around 4 - BSL then a long walk from Broad to 3rd. Wondering if I’ll be frolicking in still falling snow or just trudging through the whole of the accumulation.You'll be trudging for sure at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Fwiw the GFS just cut back amounts significantly RGEM dropped them slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: Fwiw the GFS just cut back amounts significantly RGEM dropped them slightly Is Lucy about to pull the ball back at the last minute??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, Voyager said: Is Lucy about to pull the ball back at the last minute??? Don't even say it, don't even You know what's funny GFS cut back everybody but NYC What Lucy just did was yank the football and let Charlie just get a piece of it, the kick was flubbed and he fell on his butt. Ralph should be popping in telling us not to look at model runs this late in the game lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 With RGEM dropping me back to 3.5" and the GFS down to 2.5" glad i didn't upgrade my expectations and learned from the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 The short range models are best used now. I would not expect more than 2-4" to the NW where I am, and that's not bad for a first snow in December. Will set the holiday mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 At midnight, Friday, very light snow falling, 33F, 2.4" on the snow board, liquid precip. .28". Street in front of my house clear. Since the snow started just after 3pm the wind has been mostly calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Ukmet did not waver so there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 32 minutes ago, Bliz299 said: At midnight, Friday, very light snow falling, 33F, 2.4" on the snow board, liquid precip. .28". Street in front of my house clear. Since the snow started just after 3pm the wind has been mostly calm. Just drove back to cape May from philly. Nothing until mile 20 on GSP and then steady snow from there south. Our car read 32 most of the way but dipped to 30 just south of CMCH until the west cape May bridge. It read 31 at my house. The bridge had slush and snow in spite of salting operations. Trees and bushes starting to bend from weight of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 The first of the flakes have just begun to fall. 34.4F / 26.0F / 71% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Radar looks like garbage right now. In no way am i calling the "B" word yet, but things better start to blossom soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Newman said: Radar looks like garbage right now. In no way am i calling the "B" word yet, but things better start to blossom soon. The air is dry (dp here in NW Philly is in the teens) so it is battling that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Don't even say it, don't even You know what's funny GFS cut back everybody but NYC What Lucy just did was yank the football and let Charlie just get a piece of it, the kick was flubbed and he fell on his butt. Ralph should be popping in telling us not to look at model runs this late in the game lol 2-5" extreme SE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Radar looks like garbage right now. In no way am i calling the "B" word yet, but things better start to blossom soon. Pretty common stuff on modeling past 24 hours with these types of training wave riding front systems.....models get all juiced up at 24 hours then gradually back down as the waves approach.....dry air, subsidence, and convection offshore usually the culprits. Kudos to NWS for not falling victim and issuing WSW which is why I asked yesterday. We should still fall in the 2-5" range across extreme SE PA with lower end being the rule and higher end being the exception. This isnt a "B"....it was never expected to be a SECS quite honestly tho there was certainly the potential for a bigger upside. Let's see what happens today. In any event the first flakes of the early season are upon us during the holiday season. We take and enjoy, nothing to be disappointed about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 When I was turning in last night I took a peek at the radar loop. First thought that came to me is exactly what I see out my window, as well on the current radar loop. Heck a 1-3 or 2-4 works. If we can hold on to that......Kudos MT Holly! You guys should play pokerEdit: one last note....This is what happens when you name a winter storm Benji. LolSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 There should be some decent banding embedded in the precip shield which is just beginning to fill. Those banding features will be the difference between the 2" portion of the 2-5 I put out or the 5" portion depending on where they setup. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Judging by animated nexrad base, precip starting to fill in from SW to NE. Looks like the best fronto banding is *possibly* trying to setup around or just NW of Quakertown SW thru just NW of Pottstown and extending back thru Gap and Quarryville. We'll see if that banding continues to build and setup along there or not over next hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Saturday 7am: 3.0" on the snowboard, which means 0.6" since midnight, 33F, light sleet/ice pellets, NNE wind 2-4mph. Hopin' to get another inch or two before this thing ends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 One of my concerns yesterday was how far south it was snowing. I'd be curious to see how many times we got snow from the same system that brought snow to Atlanta. It seems those system tend to stay suppressed. Our snow comes from their rain. Anyway, it's still early, we'll see how the rest of the day plays out. Just overcast here, 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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