RedSky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Careful with the euro the extent ticked west which helps Newman but it is a uniform .40" to the Delaware river, just east of Philly .50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Careful with the euro the extent ticked west which helps Newman but it is a uniform .40" to the Delaware river, just east of Philly .50" HereSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Plus if we can pull higher ratios we could do pretty good. However the dry air is a concern imoSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 33 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Plus if we can pull higher ratios we could do pretty good. However the dry air is a concern imo The dry air is certainly my biggest worry as well in the NW burbs. It already feels so dry outside. Hopefully doesn't come into play as much. Obviously ratios will be slightly higher out here, but I don't think anything more than 12:1 at best if precip is heavy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, Newman said: The dry air is certainly my biggest worry as well in the NW burbs. It already feels so dry outside. Hopefully doesn't come into play as much. Obviously ratios will be slightly higher out here, but I don't think anything more than 12:1 at best if precip is heavy enough. Pivotalweather has a ratio map on their NAM pages. I didn't know it until DT tweeted about it, but it seems like it could be quite useful... http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ratioku&rh=2017120812&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 NAM'd. 4-8" SE PA. Big jump W. Eta: my eyes r failing me wasnt 5-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18z NAM. I know we are closing in on the event but here's the snow map anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM'd. 5-10" SE PA. Big jump W. wam bam thank you NAM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 wam bam thank you NAM.....4-8 not 5-10 on the 12k my eyes are failing me in my middle age lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Whats the estimated start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just got my alert for WSWarning OCNJ!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Quick tidbit, never understood it when people say "We're close to the event so models don't matter"....While of course that makes sense when it is actually snowing outside, unless you are using the HRRR or something, but even at 12-24 hours out the models are just as important. They don't become less useful, if they did it wouldn't make sense. The more wrong they are early on the more wrong they would be farther out (chaos theory). People used to say the EURO was better in the LR compared to the SR & it bothered me a lot. While it is important to take model biases into account, it is still very useful to look at the models within 24 hours out for last second trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Holy crap, is the Army Navy game in Philadelphia tomorrow!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 What is considered WSW criteria in the extreme SE PA Counties adjacent to the Delaware River? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 What is considered WSW criteria in the extreme SE PA Counties adjacent to the Delaware River?4" I believe i saw.On that note I am surprised Mount Holly hasn't even issued the Lehigh Valley an hwo regarding this event, even after consistent modeling of 2-4" and now with the nam of upwards of 5-6"Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4" I believe i saw. On that note I am surprised Mount Holly hasn't even issued the Lehigh Valley an hwo regarding this event, even after consistent modeling of 2-4" and now with the nam of upwards of 5-6" Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Im VERY surprised Delco, PHL, and Southern Bucks are not under a WSW. I have gone 2-5" for my area (Warminster, Central southern Bucks) but the increase in QPF and small continued ticks West with the heavier swath of snow on guidance is making me wonder if 3-6" isn't a more realistic range up my way. Considering an increase based on rates already falling on MD Eastern shore into Salisbury MD where they said accums wouldnt verify due to accum issues on "warm ground". Already busting on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, Newman said: Holy crap, is the Army Navy game in Philadelphia tomorrow!? Yes I believe it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, Newman said: Holy crap, is the Army Navy game in Philadelphia tomorrow!? Yes at the Linc @ 3 pm. There is supposed to be some huge tailgating event as part of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Yes at the Linc @ 3 pm. There is supposed to be some huge tailgating event as part of that. Definitely sounds like this year will be a unique experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, shemATC said: Yes I believe it is. Hey Shem, I've been stuck over at PR. What 's Langhorne looking like for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Hey Shem, I've been stuck over at PR. What 's Langhorne looking like for tomorrow We were looking good for 4-5" after the last few models (3-6" general area) until this most recent GFS run, which knocked qpf back down and possibly back in the 3" range. We always end up in some sort of screw zone, so anything over 2" is bonus I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 We were looking good for 4-5" after the last few models (3-6" general area) until this most recent GFS run, which knocked qpf back down and possibly back in the 3" range. We always end up in some sort of screw zone, so anything over 2" is bonus I'm guessing.And new rgem is 4-8" and ticked west with heavier precip again. Gfs has been playing catchup and wobbling around the entire tracking period of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Ralph I'm sure you've seen it before too, but many times b4 a storm the RGEM/NAM have a run where they boost QPF then come back down to earth... However, what encourages me this time is that the GEM/NAM & GFS showed better phasing down South. This is going to be a fun storm to track. 1) It is just about 1 week into December so it isn't a storm where that ends a season so less pressure as a hobbyist. 2) I see more positive bust potential with this one. 3) Just 2 days ago we pretty much thought we were getting some flurries or snow showers, but now 48 hours later and we could be on the verge of a SECS. 4) As just mentioned the Army/Navy game could be played in a snowstorm, I am not sure if that has ever happened in the history of the matchup, would be interesting if someone looked that up. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Is the new NBC weather girl from LA or something it's obvious she doesn't understand winter weather. She just showed the Delaware snow and pointed out that all that was falling north and west of it is rain lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: 4) As just mentioned the Army/Navy game could be played in a snowstorm, I am not sure if that has ever happened in the history of the matchup, would be interesting if someone looked that up. Let's do this. The game used to be held the weekend after Thanksgiving (thus in November) and it was moved to December (1st or 2nd week) the last 10 years or so due to team expansions and avoiding division playoffs. We all know about that early December climatological period and the odds though....! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Some light flurries falling in NW Chester County Temp 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 21 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The game used to be held the weekend after Thanksgiving (thus in November) and it was moved to December (1st or 2nd week) the last 10 years or so due to team expansions and avoiding division playoffs. We all know about that early December climatological period and the odds though....! 2013 game was played in snow I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Newman said: 2013 game was played in snow I believe. Yes. https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/12/14/5210768/army-navy-game-2013-results-score And as an obs it is currently 35F and overcast with a pretty dry dp of 18F. May be some virga out there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The game used to be held the weekend after Thanksgiving (thus in November) and it was moved to December (1st or 2nd week) the last 10 years or so due to team expansions and avoiding division playoffs. We all know about that early December climatological period and the odds though....! Thanks, I'm the typical Philly sports fan, 4 for 4 but never got into college football for whatever reason. Lack of playoff and lack of a team. I'm a Temple fan my parents went there but they were pretty terrible growing up lol.... and PSU to me doesn't count as a Philly team. I'm more of a college basketball fan especially since I played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Do models 3-4 days out underestimate things like ENSO? December La Nina precip anomaly since 2000, matches this storm nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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