Tom Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 can't post many but first of year looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 General 2-5" snowfall looks likely across SE PA Saturday with higher amounts Delaware River S and E thru S Central NJ. Good way to start off the season.....a trend in the right direction for a change. Expecting a possible upgrade to winter storm watches in very extreme SE PA at 12z if track holds or continues to tick West. Had been watching this period for wintry precip chances for over 10 days now tho admittedly threw in the towel 6z Thursday for about 10 minutes before climbing back on board. Shame on me. Happy to see it will produce. Early start should bode well however for 17-18. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6z gefs precip mean is impressive. .5-.75 band across SE PA with the .75-1" line on the Delaware River. Amazing that some guidance that had flurries 24 hours ago now have the *potential* for a foot of snow in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I threw in the towel a couple days ago....I'm surprised by the trending. 12z runs should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Well, this is a nice treat for a Friday. The models are all starting to come around. If we get 2" + I am going to be so pumped. I have a new puppy and I am dying to see his reaction to the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Here is a link to the NWS briefing packet for the storm http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 great briefing by Mt Holly. They've done a great job updating and keeping the possibility for the storm open even when it was on life support. Compared to the office in SE Virginia that doesn't even have WWA or Watches up for areas that may see 6 to 10 inches of snow tomorrow and they are doing an incredible job. I think the 1 in 10 snow map has a fairly decent shot of verifying if precip numbers continue to tick up and the storm continues to tick west/stronger as has been the trend since 12z yesterday. Right now my call is 1-3" LV, 3-6" from Bucks County south and east to the Delaware river. 5 to 8" from Trenton S and E with lollipops of 10" somewhere. But I won't be surprised if I have to increase those numbers increase by tonight to 2 to 4" LV , 5 to 8" Bucks and SE, and 7 to 10" Trenton SE as guidance continues to tick up with precip through 6z. The best news is I don't see there being enough time for this to trend in a horrible direction and screwing a majority of the area. I think just about everyone here is locked for at least accumulating snow. RGEM at 06z brings Extreme SE PA 6 inches. 4 to 6 through all of bucks county. 3-4 for most of the LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On a side note, how incredible did the NAM do with this storm? I know the NAVGEM had it first because the NAM wasn't in range but when it got in range, it was very consistent with the idea of precip being further west inland than the other models. I think it may have only had 1 run where it showed a miss for us but it definitely scored one over the GFS/Euro here if the storm plays out as projected. UKMET and CMC deserve kudos as well. Poor performance by both the GFS and Euro on this storm 4 days out. I think I mentioned earlier in the week that these storms coming on the heels of a pretty big pattern change often cause chaos on the globals and that was the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Right now temp is 34 and DP is 21. Most of the area should struggle to get above 40 today and precip won't be coming in until early morning tomorrow. Also don't think we will see too much sun today so I don't think we'll have to worry about warm ground effect. While it isn't vodka cold, most of the area should stay at around 30-32 the whole event besides N and W burbs which will be in the upper 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 It is nice to see the "little" models hit on this one. Since Early this week, it was looking like the trough wasn't going to pull this storm up enough, but here it comes. Were almost in to now casting territory with this storm. If the mid day runs stay strong, then i am really going to move from tracking to excited. This will be my first snow in my new house with my heated front porch. I can not wait to sit on the porch and watch the snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Speaking of nowcast, the precip already looks further N and W than where the models placed the western edge of it. It's looking like most of east tennesee is going to get precip where most models had the cutoff about 20 miles west of the border or so. Even back into LA the precip is further N and W than it was projected. It's been a common theme since yesterday. I expect the models to continue ticking the heavier amount NW today. Unfortunately I think by tonight the shore may be looking at some pretty big mixing issues. I mean even right now it is going to be wicked close for them. Another tick 20 miles and mixing/rain is very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Always nice to see the reality lining up with what I am hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 12z 3km NAM holds steady from 6z. Much less gradient of snow. tad less in some areas but more uniform in precip distribution. heaviest snow remains in S NJ. 3-6 basically everywhere else. 2-4 in lehigh valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 51 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 12z 3km NAM holds steady from 6z. Much less gradient of snow. tad less in some areas but more uniform in precip distribution. heaviest snow remains in S NJ. 3-6 basically everywhere else. 2-4 in lehigh valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 RGEM is a beaut for the area. 2-4" for LV, 4-7" bucks county SE to the del river. 7-10" for Trenton on south/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 GFS very similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyMPW Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Lucy will pull the football away shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 cmc similar to the rgem. interesting battle between the american and canadian models. both are great hits for us but the canadians would be on the verge of a winter storm warning criteria for extreme SE PA. I'm curious what the uk is going to show after going gung ho last night, hope it stays on that path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Expectations set at 3" in Qtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: Expectations set at 3" in Qtown I hope that hits for you. I'm much closer to the city, so that would bode very well for me! Does seem to be looking like that is a good call. You know what they say about expectations though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Jsdphilly said: I hope that hits for you. I'm much closer to the city, so that would bode very well for me! Does seem to be looking like that is a good call. You know what they say about expectations though... I think Philly gets 5" Ukie has backed off now around .60" liquid for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: I think Philly gets 5" Ukie has backed off now around .60" liquid for the city Im the first set of suburbs NW of the city. Only about 1 mile from the city limits. I gotta be honest, 3 inches is my expectation, I would love to get a few more. <1.5 and I am gonna be upset at this point. But any snow first week of December makes me happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Uk is still plenty juicy for all. widespread 4-6" for SE PA. 6-10" in SNJ though may be for like 5 to 8 as they will get much worse ratios than further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Setting my bar at anything that can cover up the grass completely. Anything else is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 It's going to be a nice daytime snow which I really like. Amounts aren't that important unless we're talking feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, wkd said: It's going to be a nice daytime snow which I really like. Amounts aren't that important unless we're talking feet. This is actually a good point. I love a nice daytime snow. Wake up to a coating and watch it build is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Right about the daytime snow, who remembers how last winter most of the snow events happened at night and early morning so not only did we not receive much snow but we saw even less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Weather Channel has it up to 3-5 for Allentown, PA on Saturday. Haven't had the opportunity to dig into this much. Timing wise is this a daytime event and pulling out overnight or sticking around into Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Right about the daytime snow, who remembers how last winter most of the snow events happened at night and early morning so not only did we not receive much snow but we saw even less. I got to watch most of last year's snow at night. I will miss the daytime snow tomorrow due to work. Im sure there will be more chances though this season. Have fun all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Euro ticks NW with precip again. SNJ gets slammed. We have a great consensus heading into the event and I feel pretty comfortable issuing my final call after the 12Z suite: Lehigh Valley 2 to 4" with isolated 5" totals Bucks county South and East to the Delaware River 3 to 6", 3-4 inches in the north and western parts of this area, heavier amounts 5 or 6 closer to the Delaware river. Isolated 7-8" totals Trenton South and East to the shore 5 to 8" with isolated totals of 10". Shore areas may see less if they see mixing for a period which is always possible in early season snow storms All in all a very solid storm to kick off the year, ground should be snow covered for the entire area. I think roads will be worse than projected during a normal day time snow event. Low sun angle and less traffic than a normal weekday should make the roads be snow covered in area's that see heavier totals. The event beginning before sunrise(thinking we see a 2-4 am start from south to north) also will be a factor in this. I haven't been out today but this morning there were no roads being treated at all either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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