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December 8-9 Holiday snow event Observations


Wow

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Winston, GA (West Douglas County) - Power came back on (briefly) and I got an update that there was about 7-8" outside on the ground.  So that would be net of any melt and compaction.  Husband does not share my desire to maintain and measure with a snow board, the stinker.  If I'd been home for this event there would have been a log and all that.

That 7-8" would make it the biggest event IMBY since moving to Atlanta Metro 20 years ago.  Tops the previous highs of about 6".

(.... now to see if the stuff falling here in Maine tops that ...)

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48 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Had enough sleet last night and snow this morning for 2 inches but melting fast, even with clouds and mid 30s. Got down to 32 twice but never able to get below freezing. Had I just been 2 measley degrees colder since yest afternoon would of had a real nice pile, even with all the mixing. So close!!

GSP has a list of totals, some pretty impressive ones

18 in Mtn City GA (Rabun County)

18 near Cashiers NC

Biggest report I see for SC is 9 in Marshall (Pickens County). With Brevard and Hendersonville being in double digits though I bet Caesar's Head is close to a foot.

Overall SC really got the shaft unless you were close to the NC border. I did notice GSP set a daily record for yesterday with with 1.6

My inlaw's have a house right on the NC/SC border off hwy 178 at 3000 feet.  They got a little over 12 inches.

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26 minutes ago, J.C. said:

TWC is blaming the Euro for their forecast bust, saying the models didn't show this much snow, even the high rez models.  All of us on here know the truth.

I think most forecasters underestimated the cold air push.  They were seeing many places in AL GA with dewpoints of 33-37 and didn’t think the cold air would push down in time so they just assumed an 80% melt rate of the QPF.  I even felt the same thing.  The snow maps were actually close on many models actually getting the maximum in some areas NW of ATL correct but many of those models also showed RASN for long periods despite showing those totals 

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29 minutes ago, J.C. said:

TWC is blaming the Euro for their forecast bust, saying the models didn't show this much snow, even the high rez models.  All of us on here know the truth.

I wonder if they were influenced by the angry outrage after last January's big bust in the highly populated piedmont areas (triangle SW to Charlotte).  I find it hard to blame the TV mets for being conservative after that one.  

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11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think most forecasters underestimated the cold air push.  They were seeing many places in AL GA with dewpoints of 33-37 and didn’t think the cold air would push down in time so they just assumed an 80% melt rate of the QPF.  I even felt the same thing.  The snow maps were actually close on many models actually getting the maximum in some areas NW of ATL correct but many of those models also showed RASN for long periods despite showing those totals 

So really curious about this one, I've lived in Atlanta for my whole life and have seen these types of setups a million times with sometimes much better "enviornments" than yesterday, especially being this early in the season.  What did you see that made this cold push so much more potent than usual?  I mean, cold air pushing down from the NW hardly if ever makes it over the appalachians in time, we can never seem to get appreciable snowfall with some type of arctic air in place or a nice dry CAD.  What on earth happened differently than normal to make this work for the Georgia people?

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1 hour ago, J.C. said:

TWC is blaming the Euro for their forecast bust, saying the models didn't show this much snow, even the high rez models.  All of us on here know the truth.

They hug the GFS, so this is a BS excuse!! Just look at your local forecast, it's exactly what the GFS is forecasting! Word for word

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Also, I saw more snow with this storm , than the January bust last year!!

We're ahead of the game. It just feels like one of those years after a warm winter and pleasant summer. We're due for a strong CAD event. This storm may have set us up for something in the future. It made some solid early season snowpack as it headed north

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

I wonder what GSP is blaming their bust on, blind conservatism perhaps? 

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Not sure what model they were looking at either. The Hrrr and SREF showed more snow than this along with enough cold air. They have might have been playing it conservatively so people wouldn't get pissed and come at them with pitchforks like that one time. Can't say I blame them. Maybe isohume can chime in. I'm glad they busted on the wrong side for once though. Lol. 

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9 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Not sure what model they were looking at either. The Hrrr and SREF showed more snow than this along with enough cold air. They have might have been playing it conservatively so people wouldn't get pissed and come at them with pitchforks like that one time. Can't say I blame them. Maybe isohume can chime in. I'm glad they busted on the wrong side for once though. Lol. 

They probably looked at JBs pioneer model!

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1 hour ago, audioguy3107 said:

So really curious about this one, I've lived in Atlanta for my whole life and have seen these types of setups a million times with sometimes much better "enviornments" than yesterday, especially being this early in the season.  What did you see that made this cold push so much more potent than usual?  I mean, cold air pushing down from the NW hardly if ever makes it over the appalachians in time, we can never seem to get appreciable snowfall with some type of arctic air in place or a nice dry CAD.  What on earth happened differently than normal to make this work for the Georgia people?

I think many of the events you recall had stronger mid level warm advection which caused more sleet or freezing rain.  There was a decent high pressure area located to the NW and it was also fairly fresh.  I’ve seen events down there the last few years where by the time the wave ejects out into the Gulf the high has been up north for days and the cold air is getting stale.  This was also not a classic event for that area though in that the system dug pretty well and the track was more SW-NE vs E-W or WSW-ENE.  That likely prolonged things to an extent as well. 

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2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think most forecasters underestimated the cold air push.  They were seeing many places in AL GA with dewpoints of 33-37 and didn’t think the cold air would push down in time so they just assumed an 80% melt rate of the QPF.  I even felt the same thing.  The snow maps were actually close on many models actually getting the maximum in some areas NW of ATL correct but many of those models also showed RASN for long periods despite showing those totals 

You are probably right about that, but after what they were seeing in south Texas you would think they would start taking the high Rez models a little more seriously.  Thank goodness it was Friday afternoon.

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