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December 8-9 Holiday snow event Observations


Wow

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  On 12/9/2017 at 1:20 AM, Cheeznado said:

A bit miffed, the heaviest band refuses to pivot this way, some places out west of here will end up with a foot, so far only 2" here (more than that has probably fallen but with warmer temps and that two hours of rain make it hard to tell).

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You are definitely going into a dry slot until the upper trof pivots across.  I seems to me that band is weakening and lifting out of ATL.  Most models at least hinted at the 02-07Z period being iffy with the band swinging through thereafter with the upper trof.  They key now I think is to watch the area near Mobile Bay and WRN FL and hope no major convection starts going.

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  On 12/9/2017 at 1:16 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

Airport I think only got 4.  I have heard some mets over the years at conferences etc. say they think the measurement was bad but I think the south side towns only had 2-3 so it may not have been far off.  The north side got over 8 I believe

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We had 14" in Cherokee county in 1993.

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  On 12/9/2017 at 1:16 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

Airport I think only got 4.  I have heard some mets over the years at conferences etc. say they think the measurement was bad but I think the south side towns only had 2-3 so it may not have been far off.  The north side got over 8 I believe

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Interesting.  Coworkers were talking about 2' being dumped on them in 1993.  That's waaaaay over 8", so I'm gonna chalk it up to trying to impress the new coworker :)  Thanks for the figures.   That CC zone set up in the wrong place for the "official" measurements in this event.

 

 

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  On 12/9/2017 at 1:24 AM, QC_Halo said:

Once again...the differences between the city of Charlotte and the northern burbs are accentuated.   

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GOT to have cold air in place. Depending on the cold getting south of I-85 while an event is in progress NEVER works out. Not even if every single model in the world shows it. It WILL NOT happen.

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  On 12/9/2017 at 1:23 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

 

You are definitely going into a dry slot until the upper trof pivots across.  I seems to me that band is weakening and lifting out of ATL.  Most models at least hinted at the 02-07Z period being iffy with the band swinging through thereafter with the upper trof.  They key now I think is to watch the area near Mobile Bay and WRN FL and hope no major convection starts going.

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HRRR says we get another 2" with snow picking up again about 05Z not ending until about 12Z.

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  On 12/9/2017 at 1:24 AM, QC_Halo said:

Once again...the differences between the city of Charlotte and the northern burbs are accentuated.   

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You haven't missed much with this one though. I have a light dusting of slop.  Think there is a decent shot at some light accums late night / early morn but we'll see

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  On 12/9/2017 at 1:29 AM, SteveVa said:

Can we just dispel the notion that this system is such an overachiever? Multiple models, especially mesoscale, predicted a similar outcome throughout multiple runs. It's just that nobody believed their output.

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I don't think Houston TX was expecting 6-8" of snow!? So it did over achieve!

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  On 12/9/2017 at 1:31 AM, mackerel_sky said:

I don't think Houston TX was expecting 6-8" of snow!? So it did over achieve!

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Yeah, Houston didn't expect 6-8"...and they were right in not expecting that much because officially they got 0.7"

I'm not trying to take anything away from this spectacular (and possibly historic for some!) storm.

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  On 12/9/2017 at 1:25 AM, phobos said:
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And today people I work with didn’t believe we would get anything here and we’re still complaining since last year we were supposed to get 6-10 based on the models.  

Maybe people will one day realize it’s a lose lose situation and get on wth their lives. 

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  On 12/9/2017 at 1:39 AM, GunBlade said:

And today people I work with didn’t believe we would get anything here and we’re still complaining since last year we were supposed to get 6-10 based on the models.  

Maybe people will one day realize it’s a lose lose situation and get on wth their lives. 

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Maybe the models do not need to be made public. Only govt agencies and TV mets should have access to them. 

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  On 12/9/2017 at 1:41 AM, jshetley said:

Maybe the models do not need to be made public. Only govt agencies and TV mets should have access to them. 

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Mets forecasted 6-10” last year on tv and it was a cold rain here with some sleet in the beginning.  The people I work with have never looked at a weather model.  All they know is what the people on tv said.  Even if models weren’t available they’d still be mad.  

Some people just like to complain. 

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