Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Ukie pushing precip all the way back to Cumberland is not a bad thing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Ukie pushing precip all the way back to Cumberland is not a bad thing. lolHow does it compare to yesterday 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: How does it compare to yesterday 12z . Rough guess is a 50-70 mile shift west with the entire shield. ETA: you meant 12z yesterday....nope, not sweet like that run but surely a positive trend considering 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: How does it compare to yesterday 12z . precip maps stopped at 72 hrs, so it's hard to say BUT, I think yesterday's 12z was a little better EDIT: I'm talking I95, while Bob is talkking precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: How does it compare to yesterday 12z . like comparing the redskins to the patriots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ukie pushing precip all the way back to Cumberland is not a bad thing. lol The UK is tempting me to jump in....but. Euro is king here,, will wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: How does it compare to yesterday 12z . It's not as good as yesterday but it was really tucked in to the coast yesterday. Looks like current run would be possibly 1-3 inches, if it can accumulate, across the area. However, it looks like it would take a huge shift for anything more significant for that. Ukie has all the heavy precip wayyyy out over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 12z UKIE meteogram has DCA with 13mm... all snow, 2m temp sits right at 0C (32F) and 850s are good ETA: 13mm is ~0.50 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, osfan24 said: It's not as good as yesterday but it was really tucked in to the coast yesterday. Looks like current run would be possibly 1-3 inches, if it can accumulate, across the area. However, it looks like it would take a huge shift for anything more significant for that. Ukie has all the heavy precip wayyyy out over the ocean. That heavy precip is rain so it's not a good apples to apples on the cold side of the storm. Relatively fast mover too so top end is prob .5" qpf near I95 from how it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Well I guess I have to hug the Ukie. Gets a couple of inches out here even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 BTRWx textbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Recap: Nam twins: conversational flakes for 3-6 hours GFS: Grass and mulch turn white along and just west of 95 Ukie: weather porn CMC: broken Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 whats up with the Canadian? is it running at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Recap: Nam twins: conversational flakes for 3-6 hours GFS: Grass and mulch turn white along and just west of 95 Ukie: weather porn CMC: broken Euro: GEFS in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Recap: Nam twins: conversational flakes for 3-6 hours GFS: Grass and mulch turn white along and just west of 95 Ukie: weather porn CMC: broken Euro: How does the GEFS look to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 guys, we are super close to a big phase on the NAM. To attempt magic... I don't think you know how small a trend is to have a big storm, and probably conditioned by seeing this pattern 100s of times before with slight results. This is like 100 miles away from big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Oh man. I thought this was a gonner, now you are telling me there’s a chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Seems the reason behind the GFS and the pulling in of moisture is a crazy forcasted jet streak near Albany NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: How does the GEFS look to you? 50 mile shift NW so pretty much followed the op but we're out of the GEFS range now. Low res and close in. Ops are the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Very cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Euro's very high resolution prob isn't going to broad brush the nw edge like the gfs/ukie. If it shows .1 west of 95 I would say that things are looking pretty good. The edge is going to be tight between .5" and zero no matter what. I'm sorta optimistic that the euro puts me in the .1+ range based on everything the 12z suite has shown so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Amazing how much difference a slight restructuring of the northern stream makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Are the chances of a Phase with the NS so bad we shouldn't discuss the possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Ger said: Are the chances of a Phase with the NS so bad we shouldn't discuss the possibility? Clippers are fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Ger said: Are the chances of a Phase with the NS so bad we shouldn't discuss the possibility? The northern piece is way too far north to help us either way. We want that vort to stay the heck out of the way and let the southern wave push as far NW as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The northern piece is way too far north to help us either way. We want that vort to stay the heck out of the way and let the southern wave push as far NW as possible. What about the trailing energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Anybody got the RGEM anywhere? It seems like it might be broken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Busy painting in the basement and it looks as if I missed all the fun with the GFS run. Trends look good from what little I see. Might have to start looking at temp profiles though. If this were to verify I would not be surprised to see people to the west get light rain/showers while those to the east get snow because of better rates to help overcome the lower levels. Of course another shift west of 50 miles or so and maybe everybody gets to enjoy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Busy painting in the basement and it looks as if I missed all the fun with the GFS run. Trends look good from what little I see. Might have to start looking at temp profiles though. If this were to verify I would not be surprised to see people to the west get light rain/showers while those to the east get snow because of better rates to help overcome the lower levels. Of course another shift west of 50 miles or so and maybe everybody gets to enjoy snow. DC sounding looks pretty good @ 1pm Sat. Below freezing just off the deck and 35 at the surface works. It's pretty cold 925/850 etc. I don't think there would be sprinkles anywhere on the western edge honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I think this RGEM link works? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Edit: only goes out 12 hours so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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