attml Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 All in!!! The NAM is shifting too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Hopefully this is a continuous trend. I wouldn't be surprised if 1 or 2 runs shifts is SE by a tad, but overall it moves NW. I'm glad the GFS trended in the right direction though i actually think you have potentially 1-2 more runs NW until the SE adjustment. We've seen this before. Not saying it happens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, pasnownut said: i actually think you have potentially 1-2 more runs NW until the SE adjustment. We've seen this before. Not saying it happens though. Its typically NW trend up until the storm actually happens, then the precip shield isn't as far West as predicted, so we need it as NW as we can get it (this is a good start though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 TT now plots the model change in snow depth, which accounts for more reasonable SLRs and the potential for snow to not efficiently stick. With the marginal temps and rations likely less than 10:1, you can see that it's less generous (although still gets most of us in the game). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Z-Cast said: Mood flakes But its great for so early in the year. We didn't have snow last year. Like, basically none. So this is welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 It would take fairly small shifts over the next 36 hours or so to either fail to see a flake fly or to have a chance at anywhere from .5 to an inch of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The GFS has to be right. The cutoff is at Mt. Weather. No snow west of the Allegheny range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, high risk said: TT now plots the model change in snow depth, which accounts for more reasonable SLRs and the potential for snow to not efficiently stick. With the marginal temps and rations likely less than 10:1, you can see that it's less generous (although still gets most of us in the game). do you think there is room for another tick NW? Based on what you see with the NS interaction and the better organized LP off the coast. Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: do you think there is room for another tick NW? Based on what you see with the NS interaction and the better organized LP off the coast. Just curious. The most important thing on the GFS run that allowed the backing of the precip field is the NS vort being a little slower. Slow it down another 25-50 miles or so and the more significant precip will likely encroach I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The most important thing on the GFS run that allowed the backing of the precip field is the NS vort being a little slower. Slow it down another 25-50 miles or so and the more significant precip will likely encroach I95. very do-able over 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The 3K NAM is actually pretty decent for DC proper. 8 or 9 hours of mood flakes at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 This is exactly how it goes down!!! We get a nice hit 7-10 days out... the models shift to rain on everyone's parade and like clockwork they slowly adjust for a big hit!!! I am so stoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I don't know if anyone recalls, but it was the Euro 8 days ago that first caught this thing and had on the day 10 map a beautiful storm of the east coast with heavy snow. Of course, it backed down the next run, but would be wild if it turns out that 10 day forecast was more right than wrong despite all the changes between then and now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: I don't know if anyone recalls, but it was the Euro 8 days ago that first caught this thing and had on the day 10 map a beautiful storm of the east coast with heavy snow. Of course, it backed down the next run, but would be wild if it turns out that 10 day forecast was more right than wrong despite all the changes between then and now. That run looked a lot like yesterday's UKMET. I'll be interested to see which way the UK goes shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, PDIII said: This is exactly how it goes down!!! We get a nice hit 7-10 days out... the models shift to rain on everyone's parade and like clockwork they slowly adjust for a big hit!!! I am so stoked! Don't forget the pregame-torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Most of our storms trend NW, and so I'm hoping this is like all the others. March 14 2017 storm, early Jan 2017event, that late Feb 2015 event, the disappointing Super Bowl 2015 storm, T-day 2014 storm. All of these trended NW within 48 hours. Some ended in disappointment with snow-rain events, but some others such as the late Feb 2015 event went from a non-event for us to 1-3" of snow. It's happened before, it might happen again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Take a look at hi res NAM snow map (i know I know.....just looking for trends), and it made quite a jump NW w/ QPF field. Guess I know what I'm doing tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I'm guessing he might mean this is better for SE New England, but he was just ruling DC/Philly out a few hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: I'm guessing he might mean this is better for SE New England, but he was just ruling DC/Philly out a few hours ago As long as he's on "bored" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Take a look at hi res NAM snow map (i know I know.....just looking for trends), and it made quite a jump NW w/ QPF field. Guess I know what I'm doing tonight... Bread, milk and snowmelt runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 sigh. i guess im partly back in, a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: As long as he's on "bored" hey, leave him alone....he's a numbers guy I bet he could do circles around you with multiplication tables up to the 28 letters in the alphabet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: sigh. i guess im partly back in, a little bit. we seem to have better luck when you're out can Randy just text you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: we seem to have better luck when you're out can Randy just text you? I dont know. I may stick around just to spite you now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 39 minutes ago, pasnownut said: i actually think you have potentially 1-2 more runs NW until the SE adjustment. We've seen this before. Not saying it happens though. Absolutely! And almost fringe folks.. need to remember they could get fringed! I am at least thinking now I see some flurries.... well maybe! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 UKMET looks like no drastic changes from 0z other than the low sped up a little. Scratch that, precip maps are out and it's significantly better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 12z UKIE MUCH better than 00z... waiting for meteogram, but looks like 15mm of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Here is the "money" panel -- hr 60 on 12z UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 tick, tick, tick, tick, west, west, west..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Good luck guys...jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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