Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 NOBODY SAY ANYTHING ABOUT THE GFS UNTIL ITS SHOWS THE STORM DIRECTLY OVER US Nevermind who am I kidding it looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GFS upping heights a little. Should let precip kick back west more than 6z....slightly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Trough looks a bit better through 24 on h5... we'll see if this translates to a NW shift down the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks similar to what the 6z nam spit out. Sig jump east and much lower precip totals from the previous run though. Thanks. Seems like a consensus is setting up that 95 could be the dividing line and maybe in the game for some flurries or snow showers, possibly a little more if things break right, but you probably have to be across the bay to have any chance of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 also at 24, qpf field a nice tick NW of 6z..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 hr 36 can def tell this will be coming NW some based off h5 orientation... more favorable when comparing 12z 36 to 06z 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Trough less positive at 42...its trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Precip into EZF at 45, def NW of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 NS wave a little slower too. Prob the reason for the uptick in heights along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, LP08 said: Trough less positive at 42...its trying and in this case thats not a negative..... see what i did there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 It's further NW at 42 hours than the NAM was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 .1 line to charlottesville and just south of DCA at 51. Not bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 BINGO!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: NS wave a little slower too. Prob the reason for the uptick in heights along the coast. yeah just saw that. basically same position as 6z, so that lets this climb a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Most organzied the GFS has been with the final piece running the coast. Another reason for the push NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I will sit back and eat crow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I will sit back and eat crow No you won't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I will sit back and eat crow don't sit too long or you'll end up with hemorrhoids like Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 If we were to accept the 12z GFS snow map... 2-4 down by EZF... 1-2 to DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Who was the person that said they want to move to SE VA because it often beats the DC area snow wise? Looks like SE VA will beat no one this time around. Tidewater trended to all rain following a more amped system. Luckily I managed my expectations lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: I will sit back and eat crow I'll deep fry it so it tastes better. I deserve a big plate of it too. This gets me first flakes that's for sure...lots of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Although the GFS does get us over 0.2 in DC surface temps really never get close to freezing around DC...so accumulations will probably be very limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Although the GFS does get us over 0.2 in DC but surface temps really never get close to freezing around DC...so accumulations will probably be very limited. snow tv it may be, but it's snow nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: snow tv it may be, but it's snow nonetheless Yeah it's definitely better than nothing...GFS has upper 30s dropping to mid 30s during the event. We do have a very low sun angle going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Although the GFS does get us over 0.2 in DC but surface temps really never get close to freezing around DC...so accumulations will probably be very limited. Agreed but low 30's is close. Start time is shortly after sunrise. West of the fall line could verify a bit cooler. That's probably the last worry honestly. It never looked super cold temp wise but just getting into measurable precip is priority #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 uh....cant post pics for some reason, but go look at snow maps (for viewing pleasure only). nice tick NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 per the GFS, we wouldn't see the first flakes for 48 hours....this is not the final solution again, such a small shift, relatively speaking, is needed for a more eventful scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Mood flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Hopefully this is a continuous trend. I wouldn't be surprised if 1 or 2 runs shifts is SE by a tad, but overall it moves NW. I'm glad the GFS trended in the right direction though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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