nw baltimore wx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, peribonca said: As we get closer to the possible event I'll be looking at eastern Tennessee... If they get into some precip, odds are the shield will get to us The Almanac According to Howard says to keep an eye on Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 NAM has decided to tick NW again as well. I'll tell you one feature that has been rather consistant, and its that vort over the Great Lakes. I know best case it dives in and joins the party to turn the trough more negative, but from days ago, I thought he evolution would be purely southern stream due to spacing and dissconect from said low. Unfortunately that GLL has remained close enough to kick, but not not enough to help. To me that is the biggest reason this storm isnt gaining latitude. Nut edit-i know this one is largely cooked except for SE locals (and Im rooting for yas), but im just having fun, cause its all we got right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: NAM has decided to tick NW again as well. I'll tell you one feature that has been rather consistant, and its that vort over the Great Lakes. I know best case it dives in and joins the party to turn the trough more negative, but from days ago, I thought he evolution would be purely southern stream due to spacing and dissconect from said low. Unfortunately that GLL has remained close enough to kick, but not not enough to help. To me that is the biggest reason this storm isnt gaining latitude. Nut Damn mistakes on the lakes! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, pasnownut said: NAM has decided to tick NW again as well. I'll tell you one feature that has been rather consistant, and its that vort over the Great Lakes. I know best case it dives in and joins the party to turn the trough more negative, but from days ago, I thought he evolution would be purely southern stream due to spacing and dissconect from said low. Unfortunately that GLL has remained close enough to kick, but not not enough to help. To me that is the biggest reason this storm isnt gaining latitude. Nut edit-i know this one is larely cooked except for SE locals (and Im rotting for yas), but im just having fun, cause its all we got right now... you're talking about the 6z NAM, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/938764524626370560 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 for all of you laughing at the gulf states getting snow... the NWS has issues WWA for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 and the NAM pulls us back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Well..NAM is NW with the precip shield....still not big "hit" tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 46 minutes ago, stormtracker said: you're talking about the 6z NAM, no? Yepper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well..NAM is NW with the precip shield....still not big "hit" tho All we are looking for is first flakes right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Interstate said: All we are looking for is first flakes right? At this point, yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: At this point, yeah I mean it is encouraging somewhat. although I am not sure I am inclined to believe it still at least for my area. I think you have a shot at seeing some flakes. west of 95 only if there is a miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 12z NAM gets snow in to the I-95 corridor hrs 48-54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well..NAM is NW with the precip shield....still not big "hit" tho Very Greedy Tracker. We still have five or six runs left to get into a 2-4 inch scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z NAM gets snow in to the I-95 corridor hrs 48-54 I think...I think its the best NAM run in the last 6 or so..one or two more ticks NW would be a miracle...I think this run just gets to 95 based on that look...like if you got off the exit and headed anywhere west you are done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Wonderdog said: Very Greedy Tracker. We still have five or six runs left to get into a 2-4 inch scenario. I don't think the flakes make it to us on that run...but real close like just east of 28 maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Per WB, 12z NAM has an inch or 2 right along I-95. Of course SBY is the jackpot with 9 lol. eta- 12km NAM. And sharp cutoff NW of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Seems like my theory of relating this storm and last storm will be put to the test today. Didn't expect the GFS to be even remotely close to us for the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I think...I think its the best NAM run in the last 6 or so..one or two more ticks NW would be a miracle...I think this run just gets to 95 based on that look...like if you got off the exit and headed anywhere west you are done I'm not sure it would be a miracle. It's going to be what it's going to be. Reminds me when I was a kid growing up in S Jersey and I would make minute by minute checks of the temperature when we would be in a rain to snow scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 12z NAM total QPF map has 0.1 line west of I-95... 0.3 line is just east of DCA probably 30 miles (along a line from EZF to Annapolis and east)... 0.4 line isn't that far away either, its in S MD (Calvert/Charles/St. Mary's) This is all through 60 hrs btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3km NAM actually looks a bit better than the 12km. Certainly gets precip west of 95 this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z NAM total QPF map has 0.1 line west of I-95... 0.5 line isn't that far away, its in S MD (all through 60 hrs) since you have an early look, and TT isnt there yet, are you seeing another tick similar to 06z? I know its the NAM, but it is coming into range...even though it often needs glasses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: At this point, yeah Like you I am skeptical, but its not like we haven't seen shifts like this over and over and over again. Our years of disappointment and climo make us more apt to believe in the threat of negative model trends then positive ones. Cuts down on the misery to our souls. But its not like I will be absolutely shocked if this thing came back from the dead and continued shifting NW today and tomorrow. Maybe I am too stuck in the past but I still remember when I was really getting into model tracking at PSU and much of the guidance didn't even go out past 48 hours. The old NGM and ETA and RGEM of course. The AVN only went to 72. Past that we had the MRF run once a day out to day 10 and the once a day Euro to day 7. If you were really desperate you could look at the nogaps out to 144. But hard core tracking like we do now for everything inside day 30 didn't start until inside 48 hours. Now by the time we get to 48 hours I am exhausted by the storm already. Also find it funny how we cant trust the models completely at 72 hours but will freak out over a bad run for day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z NAM total QPF map has 0.1 line west of I-95... 0.5 line isn't that far away, its in S MD (all through 60 hrs) Pretty decent favorable shifts over the past 3 runs. Need to see the same trend continue on the GFS and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 god damn NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 3km NAM actually looks a bit better than the 12km. Certainly gets precip west of 95 this run. Yeah, was just looking at that. 3km is exciting..relatively speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 wow....gotta say I'm intruiged... we still have enough time to see this thing get I95rs back in the game. as they say....i'll be smoking cirrus..... all good. Hope y'all pull this puppy back in. Mood flakes are great, even if close by.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Trend or a headfake. Take your pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I'm not sure it would be a miracle. It's going to be what it's going to be. Reminds me when I was a kid growing up in S Jersey and I would make minute by minute checks of the temperature when we would be in a rain to snow scenario. I still do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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