Scraff Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I know the Weather Channel can be LOLz sometimes, but I’m ok with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 @losetoa6 think we can will this baby a little more west for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 hour ago, ohwxguy said: Nice qpf trend on the GFS over the last 24 hours at DCA. Every update continues to up the qpf projection. 17-12-07 0000 UTC: 0.00” 17-12-07 0600 UTC: 0.04” 17-12-07 1200 UTC: 0.22” 17-12-07 1800 UTC: 0.38” 17-12-08 0000 UTC: 0.48” 17-12-08 0600 UTC: 0.54” GFS is by far the wettest model out this way, which I don't recall seeing happen very often. I am going to assume its overdone unless it gains some support from the 12Z suite. Overnight, the NAMs, CMC, NAVGEM all pitched a shutout here. EC was about 0.10", RGEM 0.15" and UK was ~0.20". Last four runs of GFS at MRB: 12-07 12Z: high temp on Sat of 39 with 0.01” 12-07 18Z: high of 37 with 0.02” 12-08 00Z: high of 35 with 0.18” 12-08 06Z: high of 33 with 0.32” Local AM radio station had their Accuweather forecast this morning for tomorrow as cloudy with a high of 37 and no mention of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: @losetoa6 think we can will this baby a little more west for us? The upper level setup is supportive of more precip for our hoods. I think we may see some surprises with this one. Satellite looks excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: The upper level setup is supportive of more precip for our hoods. I think we may see some surprises with this one. Satellite looks excellent. awesome, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Impressive-Wow, not sure if I have seen a jet max that strong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Wow, not sure if I have seen a jet max that strong. . or a baroclinic leaf across the entire Eastern Seaboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Wow, not sure if I have seen a jet max that strong. . Well defined difluence in the exit region up off of the Canadian maritimes. Our region is in the favorable right-rear quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Not sure it would be hard to believe in at least one more bump West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 For us northerners, there is no worry about temps at onset. 12z tomorrow, its 28 when precip arrives, per gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Not sure it would be hard to believe in at least one more bump West Yes I agree. Been saying that all along. Either a bump or enhanced precip for the hilly terrain. I haven't been saying that all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Bath water right off the coast https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Could make for a fun Army/Navy game tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, WVclimo said: GFS is by far the wettest model out this way, which I don't recall seeing happen very often. I am going to assume its overdone unless it gains some support from the 12Z suite. Overnight, the NAMs, CMC, NAVGEM all pitched a shutout here. EC was about 0.10", RGEM 0.15" and UK was ~0.20". Last four runs of GFS at MRB: 12-07 12Z: high temp on Sat of 39 with 0.01” 12-07 18Z: high of 37 with 0.02” 12-08 00Z: high of 35 with 0.18” 12-08 06Z: high of 33 with 0.32” Local AM radio station had their Accuweather forecast this morning for tomorrow as cloudy with a high of 37 and no mention of snow. Haven't looked at specifics for areas further west w/ regards to other models, but the 06Z GFS qpf for DCA of 0.54" is right in line with the 06Z RGEM qpf of 13mm (0.51") at DCA. On top of that, the 00Z Ukie's qpf at DCA was around 18.5 - 19mm (~0.7"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Check out the RAP model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, mappy said: For us northerners, there is no worry about temps at onset. 12z tomorrow, its 28 when precip arrives, per gfs Yep. Looks good for most of us at onset away from the water and UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Again, this is a nice test of modeled temps - we've been busting a few degrees low, even in Balt City, a lot of mornings since the cold finally arrived last month. Would be nice if that trend continued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 hour ago, HighStakes said: Current radar is really unique. Quite the stretch of moisture. Can't really really think of too many systems like this one. Time to start liking the meridonal flow that was doubted in the long range thread I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krasnyoktyabr Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Snow is reaching the ground out in Radford, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Where does the leadership want obs? This thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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