December 8/9 wave

[Jebman]

I am going to have a LOT of catching up to do in a few hours, lol.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I don't, I'm a weenie.....

Actually, the radars on Unysis are decent. But I generally check out the radar then surface reports or webcams to confirm. 

Adding to that, on the Unysis radar link I posted, there is a menu at the top where you can choose sat, radar, surface, etc. I find that pretty convenient. 

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Why does WBAL still use the RPM?  It’s a terrible model. Dump that trash! They went with barely an inch in the corridor, but mentioned that might change since other models spread more precipitation westward. Duh! Everyone knows the NAVGEM rules the kingdom.  

Saw your shout out yesterday to name this after me. At least I am pretty sure it was you. Thanks, I think. After all, if this is a total Fail my name becomes Mud. He!!, there are still people out there that have yet to live down their fails from years ago. 

[mitchnick]

This storm has all the makings of a big event, as in 6-10" at BWI.  I'll be more than a little surprised if it doesn't perform to that level. But I'm not saying at this point it's likely.  I "think" that changes after 12z runs, barring an unforeseen disaster.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

This storm has all the makinhs of a big event, as in 6-10". I'll be a more than a little surprised if it doesn't perform to that level. But I'm not saying at this point it's likely.  I "think" that changes aftet 12z runs, barring an unforeseen disaster.

It's not like the models aren't spitting out those types of amounts not too far away so I think the upside on this thing is nice. I will say I prefer being on the NW fringe on systems vs. the SE fringe....but in the end I hope everyone cashes in on this first shot of the year. Dare I say this MIGHT beat last years season total? Who knows....flakes are going to fall...yay.

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This storm has all the makinhs of a big event, as in 6-10". I'll be a more than a little surprised if it doesn't perform to that level. But I'm not saying at this point it's likely.  I "think" that changes aftet 12z runs, barring an unforeseen disaster.

The potential is definitely there with the moisture laden SS involved. Just need a mechanism to get a good flow over the top of the cold air. Really hoping to see the models start ramping up that low with no interference from a possible front running low.

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Saw your shout out yesterday to name this after me. At least I am pretty sure it was you. Thanks, I think. After all, if this is a total Fail my name becomes Mud. He!!, there are still people out there that have yet to live down their fails from years ago. 

That was me. Absolutely! You’ve been on this train all week. So many others went cliff diving, but you stayed the course. Now bring home some extra juice today for us please.  Seriously—love your posts. Keep up the great work. 

[nj2va]

Euro verbatim, ~0.2” in DC by daybreak and temps 31-33 range before falling into the 20s during the evening.  While it won’t instantly accumulate everywhere (busier roads, etc), I don’t think we’d lose 50%+ to melting as some are suggesting.  

I was going to head to McHenry this weekend but looks like I need to stay here instead

[nj2va]

HRRR starting to come into range; suggests Virga/very light precip entering DC by 3z Saturday.  Would think that bodes well if it holds/continues.

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

That was me. Absolutely! You’ve been on this train all week. So many others went cliff diving, but you stayed the course. Now bring home some extra juice today for us please.  Seriously—love your posts. Keep up the great work. 

Thanks. Just hoping we can pull off a decent event here. Would be a great omen for the first half of winter.

[Scraff]

WWAs just went up!  

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

WWAs just went up!  

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
4 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total
  snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected. Locally higher
  amounts are possible.

* WHERE...The I-95 corridor from northeastern Maryland to near
  Fredericksburg Virginia, including the Washington DC and
  Baltimore MD metro areas.

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

But Bristow said the west trend had stopped after the navgem

He’s a complete tool..I happen to know him personally.  

[nj2va]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Looks like nw counties were left out for now

I prefer when LWX plays catchup anyways.

[ohwxguy]

Nice qpf trend on the GFS over the last 24 hours at DCA. Every update continues to up the qpf projection.

17-12-07 0000 UTC: 0.00”
17-12-07 0600 UTC: 0.04”
17-12-07 1200 UTC: 0.22”
17-12-07 1800 UTC: 0.38”
17-12-08 0000 UTC: 0.48”
17-12-08 0600 UTC: 0.54”

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Good luck friends to my South! Potential for an excellent seasonal start looks great. May we all enjoy snow walking, watching, shoveling, snowblowing, sledding, tubing, and Jebwalks this weekend. Really enjoy this subforum.....I appreciate your Southern hospitality :-)

[H2O]

I know we aren't in storm mode but it would be nice for people to remember that its better to keep posts on point now that the threat seems real and legit.  it just helps people find the info they want w/o the clutter.

thanks,

 the unpaid management

[Cobalt]

Just woke up, and it seems as if the models have continued to improve, except for the Nam. a 50 mile shift NW could still happen in the next 24 hours, so we'll see.

[nj2va]

NBC out with their forecast:

https://twitter.com/SheenaParveen/status/939093386488877057?s=17

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

NBC out with their forecast:

https://twitter.com/SheenaParveen/status/939093386488877057?s=17

Less than an inch out here, feels low but could be right

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

This storm has all the makings of a big event, as in 6-10" at BWI.  I'll be more than a little surprised if it doesn't perform to that level. But I'm not saying at this point it's likely.  I "think" that changes after 12z runs, barring an unforeseen disaster.

Wow bold. Your fingers to God’s computer screen my friend. I wouldn’t go that far yet, but I think 6” may be in play with one more nudge NW.

[showmethesnow]

As Mitch mentioned earlier this morning the radar is looking good. It is suggestive that we are getting better moisture flow over top farther to the northwest of the boundary through our region then maybe the models see. 

[WeSuck]

Where are my Leesburg/Western Folk? We are pulling this one home tonight boys and gals! Feeling much better after the overnight runs and the radar looks really good based on how it is filling in to our south and the current orientation it has moving NE.

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

As Mitch mentioned earlier this morning the radar is looking good. It is suggestive that we are getting better moisture flow over top farther to the northwest of the boundary through our region then maybe the models see. 

Current radar is really unique. Quite the stretch of moisture. Can't really really think of too many systems like this one. 

[CAPE]

Always cool to check out the WPC snow probability products-

[showmethesnow]

Just now, HighStakes said:

Current radar is really unique. Quite the stretch of moisture. Can't really really think of too many systems like this one. 

Me neither. But I have a horrible memory when it comes to past events. Not really going to dive into the models to look things over but just a quick glance with the radar vs. the models @700 rh and it looks like there is actually a fairly substantial disconnect between them both through our region. Radar would suggest a fairly significant expansion of moisture north and west of the boundary at this time vs what the models have. But maybe I am timing things wrong or maybe my thinking is just plain off.

[Ralph Wiggum]

As Mitch mentioned earlier this morning the radar is looking good. It is suggestive that we are getting better moisture flow over top farther to the northwest of the boundary through our region then maybe the models see. 

With the far Southern energy that definitely opens the flow from the deep Gulf of Mexico. We should see good moisture feed off the Atlantic as well based on 700mb streamlines and vorticity as well. Good juicy early-season system!

[mappy]

41 minutes ago, H2O said:

I know we aren't in storm mode but it would be nice for people to remember that its better to keep posts on point now that the threat seems real and legit.  it just helps people find the info they want w/o the clutter.

thanks,

 the unpaid management

agreed. 

[CAPE]

Impressive-

[RDM]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

With the far Southern energy that definitely opens the flow from the deep Gulf of Mexico. We should see good moisture feed off the Atlantic as well based on 700mb streamlines and vorticity as well. Good juicy early-season system!

Agree - the moisture plume is impressive - stretches well back beyond the GOM into the Baja.  With the relatively warm SSTs off the SE coast, am wondering if we don't see the potential for another tick or two up.  The warm SSTs were mentioned in previous events with comments that the models are programmed to account for it, but just how much so?  Given the duration of the event, the UL jet, streamlines, vorticity, and SSTs, it seems the combination may surprise us.  Perhaps wishful thinking, but the potential seems to line up.