pasnownut Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Like this not only good at math, but also an artist... wheres the next exhibit?? hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Like this Could pass as modern art Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: not only good at math, but also an artist... wheres the next exhibit?? hehe Coming to an alley near you!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 at the end of the run (after i refreshed, it did come NW, as the precip is now 100 miles off the coast, and not 150. So there is that..... :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, pasnownut said: at the end of the run (after i refreshed, it did come NW, as the precip is now 100 miles off the coast, and not 150. So there is that..... :). That's a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Coming to an alley near you!!!! mostly garages....no alleys will make sure the pinup centerfolds are off the wall as to not compete.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 35 minutes ago, pasnownut said: since were analyzing the NAM, at 500 i guess it does appear to be holding back into the gulf, and is not out in front of the vort over the Great Lakes (18z). Not sure if it is a continuation of slowing the second piece of energy in the Gulf, and how that might look by tomorrow?? Nut We got one good trend but it's offset by another bad one. Yesterday I said we needed the second wave to be more dominant. That was because the energy diving into the trough was sharpening it up over time. We got that trend. But the benefit of that is offset by the northern stream energy coming in further north and instead of digging in behind the system and helping to pull it up its coming down on top of it and squashing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 48 minutes ago, BristowWx said: This is just target practice guys. No real kill will result. Sharpen the skills for the big game. Unless this is the big game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 RGEM looks similar to the NAM through 48 so probably not a hit. Southern stream is breaking off, but too far southwest to do us any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: Unless this is the big game Touché my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 38 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Like this Before us we find "NAM, at 500 (failure, in the short range)." Pencil, 2017. Though it seems an abstract, the artist takes advantage of mathematical principles to paint a clear picture that incorporates both atmospheric feedback, and fortune. We see, for instance, among the curves, a polar vortex descending, angrily, from the top of the frame. A sharp trough, reminiscent of Constable's 'Animals feeding from a dry, cold trough', falls below the vortex, pushing off the falling precipitation, suggested so intelligently by the artist's circumbulent pencil strokes to the right of the image; in the bottom left, an open circle suggestive of low pressure, is about to be shunted off the frame. And in the middle, the artist has left empty space, to remind us of the likely outcome of this prediction, a snow hole, if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 00z GFS says stick a fork in it. Congrats New Orleans and Corpus Christi. Also GFS shows snow pretty far south into Mexico too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: 00z GFS says stick a fork in it. Congrats New Orleans and Corpus Christi. Also GFS shows snow pretty far south into Mexico too. Unpin already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 CMC 54hrs 500mb caved in about half way. May still show some light snow for SE sections. Edit: Probably not given the surface low is pretty far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GGEM jumped ship... UKIE only one left lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 We'll see once it's over but looking like the gfs may have handled this storm pretty well. Hasn't been jumpy at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Today we needed one step forward....we ended up going 8 step backs. So far the long awaited pattern change as I suspected has been a massive disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 This thread is in his hands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I thought the track looked ideal on the euro, but then reality struck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Looking over the runs (GFS, EURO) from tonight and I could probably cut and paste for the most part what I wrote the night before. Models are fairly locked in with the trough dropping into the lakes and the ridging in the Atlantic thus the boundary between precip/no precip has seen very little change. You could for the most part follow what fell overnight to get a feel where that boundary has set up. Have seen very little to warrant optimism in this coming Fri/Sat period for the DC/Balt corridor except for the possibility of a passing sprinkle. Place the trough and associated low in the lakes just about anywhere else and I would feel a little more optimistic but for now it is located in a prime spot for screwing up what little chance we have. But I am a 'glass half full' sort of guy so I will stick to the positives I did see which means no discussion of the GFS will be forthcoming because it was a big fat, in your face, NO. Nor will I discuss the trough/GL low which the models seem to be locked into at this time. Which leaves the Euro and how it is handling the coastal to this point. As I have mentioned before what we need to see is a distinct low form and intensify within this trough of low pressure off the coast and not just strung out POS lower pressures streaming through it. The quicker and farther south it forms and intensifies the better our chances increase. In that regard the Euro did improve even though that is not evident when looking at the precip maps on either the op or ensembles. We are seeing both the op and ensembles coming in slower with the coastal low (roughly 3-6 hours maybe a touch more?) vs the 12z run thus intensification is beginning a touch further south. With this slower progression we are also seeing a slight adjustment westward of the track as the low runs up the coast. Now the Euro has been trending over the last few runs to slow the coastal's progression down. If we can somehow squeeze out another 12 hour or so delay (and a continuation of the farther south intensification of the low) in the coming runs then I would say there is a decent chance the DC/Balt corridor comes into play barring any somewhat major changes to the general setup currently shown. Problem with hoping for that is time is running out and to expect any major changes from this point forward on the Euro is normally a bad bet. Now you can file this away as a weenism if you wish but one other possible positive is a bias that the Euro has been shown to have quite frequently. And that is to underplay total precip and the NW extent of the precip shield. The stronger more organized the low, the more pronounced this bias can be. Now whether this may possibly come into play I guess we will see. All in all though, odds of this amounting to anything for our region are low in my mind. But you never know so I will continue to track as well as follow pressure drops at game time because as a great hero once told me..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks like the GFS isn’t done with the ole weenie catch and release yet. That is actually a pretty significant change with how it handles the coastal low and a move towards the Euro. Will be curious as to what the ensembles show. If they follow the ops lead we should see a much better look on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The 6z GEFS has followed the GFS op run. Slower progression with the coastal and quicker intensification. Track has adjusted westward a little as well. Looking at the precip/snowfall means and members show a fairly significant improvement as well. What is noteworthy is we are seeing a much better expansion westward of the precip field on most of the members. Nice run and trend to see after what we have seen over the last day or two of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: A notable change for sure. My yard is out of the game but i95 +se has no reason to fold yet We have been out of the game for quite awhile now (north and west of the cities). My tracking this has been more for rooting for my old stomping grounds. I tell you what though. Seeing the GFS/GEFS move towards the Euro solution on the low has perked up my interest a touch. See them both come in a little slower with better intensification over the coming runs and maybe I will have to reevaluate my thoughts on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Maybe 6z GFS is the beginning of trends for Thursday? Keep ticking away the precip field to the west and maybe we see some flakeage. Fingers crossed anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nice! It's like acceptance of the status quo... but models really don't change and some things always trend the same ways. This event will likely keep going NW all the way up until it snows. Like 85%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: We have been out of the game for quite awhile now (north and west of the cities). My tracking this has been more for rooting for my old stomping grounds. I tell you what though. Seeing the GFS/GEFS move towards the Euro solution on the low has perked up my interest a touch. See them both come in a little slower with better intensification over the coming runs and maybe I will have to reevaluate my thoughts on this. You were quite bullish on this storm a few days ago. Maybe you will be shown to be right after all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: The 6z GEFS has followed the GFS op run. Slower progression with the coastal and quicker intensification. Track has adjusted westward a little as well. Looking at the precip/snowfall means and members show a fairly significant improvement as well. What is noteworthy is we are seeing a much better expansion westward of the precip field on most of the members. Nice run and trend to see after what we have seen over the last day or two of runs. Hey if we are going to attempt to resurrect this thing, lets go full bore.. Did you notice the increased PWAT on the 6z GEFS ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 As we get closer to the possible event I'll be looking at eastern Tennessee... If they get into some precip, odds are the shield will get to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Didn't take too much effort to make this map lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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