aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 But Bristow said the west trend had stopped after the navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Hard not be happy about this one. Still want to see the 12z suite to confirm any final predicted totals, but thinking a wide spread 1-4" across the Western shores of the bay. I like 3-6" with local 8" between Easton over to SBY Love to see that. I am hoping I can get into the loving somewhat up my way. Hanover being in a valley will make it rough in this setup as it snows in the higher elevations to my south and east leaving me the leftovers. Just hoping we get a strong enough flow to overcome that somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Love to see that. I am hoping I can get into the loving somewhat up my way. Hanover being in a valley will make it rough in this setup as it snows in the higher elevations to my south and east leaving me the leftovers. Just hoping we get a strong enough flow to overcome that somewhat. I think you can squeak out an inch or two in the setup. Pars Ridge area will probably find a way to get 2-4" just due to the topographic effects over the area and historical climatology. You'll also tend to start a bit colder than the 95 brethren at the onset, so stuff should stick pretty quickly to the grass, and roads will cave in the morning if you get into a decent band of snow. It's going to be a fun day. I work overnights again later tonight (Friday night into Saturday), so I'll be up for the beginning, but I'm going to be riding the struggle bus by the afternoon. Hopefully the snow is coming down good and I get a second wind in me. Would love to go on a walk and hit up the local IHOP for a nice hot breakfast while watching the snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 While the Nam twins cut back a hair to .3", our buddy the RGEM went a little wilder https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017120806&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Don't let yourself get too tired and miss the snow. Drink hot coffee. That is what I do when I stay up reading the models then decide to stay up right into the storm! It is also what I do when I go on a 36 hour binge at MGM, Maryland Live!, Horseshoe and Hollywood Casino. Who the hell needs sleep anyway? You can sleep when you die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6z gfs west of 0z at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 6z gfs west of 0z at 24 Ummmm, way west. Rain in sby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: BS. Euro sucked on this. No 2 ways abiut it in my mind. Too late to the party imho. EDIT: I'm not trying to be confrontational, so BS could be replaced with vehemently disagree. Just got up to see whats up. Glad to see the overnights keep the love comin..... Cant agree more...Euro was late to the dance. Ukie/Nam sniffed this one out IMO. Thats not being confrontational....thats just fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ummmm, way west. Rain in sby I hope it's all rain for them. Usually a good sign for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Just got up to see whats up. Glad to see the overnights keep the love comin..... Cant agree more...Euro was late to the dance. Ukie/Nam sniffed this one out IMO. Thats not being confrontational....thats just fact. Who was late to the party was the GFS/GEFS. Saw its bias with showing a stronger NS which leads to squashing the SS and making it progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 saweeet Jesus..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 What's nice to see is the GFS continues to weaken that GL low. Giving less interference to the developing coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: saweeet Jesus..... Far western mtns of North Carolina, Would you check out that 23 inches? Now thats nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I didn't think the jet streak over the NE could get any better, than the GFS goes all out. A bit sharper trough (And I'm talking just a tad) leading to increased divergence under the right entrance region of the jet, thus a further west expansion of the qpf shield. We've seen this before from globals as we get closer in time. Not sure if it can get much better, but it's pretty common to see the mountains and areas in the Panhandle of WV still see snow in these kinds of setups. I expect to see our WV posters reporting at least some flakes on Saturday. General 2-5" of snow for areas east of US-15. Awesome run. Many will approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I believe the 12z will push the growing area of .5"+ that is in VA northeast into Dc and MD. OK, it's my weenie hope, but still thinks it happens. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017120806&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Check out the jet orientation over last 4 runs as it scoots a bit more to the northwest. This is positive trend for people west of I-95 if they want better qpf totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Check out the jet orientation over last 4 runs as it scoots a bit more to the northwest. This is positive trend for people west of I-95 if they want better qpf totals. That's what that is. I've been seeing that slit shift at 500mb with each run as well. Very nice. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Oh No! Where did I put my flamethrower? I need to help increase the DCA snow hole. And yesterday LWX was claiming I wouldn't need it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I didn't think the jet streak over the NE could get any better, than the GFS goes all out. A bit sharper trough (And I'm talking just a tad) leading to increased divergence under the right entrance region of the jet, thus a further west expansion of the qpf shield. We've seen this before from globals as we get closer in time. Not sure if it can get much better, but it's pretty common to see the mountains and areas in the Panhandle of WV still see snow in these kinds of setups. I expect to see our WV posters reporting at least some flakes on Saturday. General 2-5" of snow for areas east of US-15. Awesome run. Many will approve. Find it kind of interesting the changes we have seen at 500mb and the energy involved. If that NS energy diving down through the midwest was only 12 or so hours quicker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 BS. Euro sucked on this. No 2 ways abiut it in my mind. Too late to the party imho. EDIT: I'm not trying to be confrontational, so BS could be replaced with vehemently disagree. NAVGEM with the big red flag and coup with this one, hands down. First with Western track and held on for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Find it kind of interesting the changes we have seen at 500mb and the energy involved. If that NS energy diving down through the midwest was only 12 or so hours quicker... Hey, hey there. Let’s not be greedy....or should I say, let's not admit it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Good morning night team! Nice overnight work. I feel like we aren’t even done juicing this baby up. You KNOW we got some NAMing coming today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Temps are good on the GFS. Freezing line hanging right around dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 28 minutes ago, pasnownut said: saweeet Jesus..... Imagine being on that southern gradient (I'm too far south too have stress, but imagine Williamsburg-richmond) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I know a lot of the precip on the western side isn't hitting the ground, but holy virga, that's a lot earlier and further west at this point than even this weenie mind would have thought. http://weather.unisys.com/radar/hires_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l3®ion=at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I know a lot of the precip on the western side isn't hitting the ground, but holy virga, that's a lot earlier and further west at this point than even this weenie mind would have thought. http://weather.unisys.com/radar/hires_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l3®ion=at Wider view http://weather.unisys.com/radar/hires_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=cur®ion=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Like the overall setup with where the boundary is being laid before for development of the low to put the DC/Balt corridor into play no matter what. At this point, barring any major changes with the energy/trough to our west, I think the the ball is in the hands of the low/trough of low pressure. We see a quicker development and/or intensification and the upside goes up for the region as we get better flow of the Atlantic. Weaker/slower development and/or a strung out low and it goes down. One thing i will be watching is how the mesoscale models start handling this feature. If I see better organization with the low and a rounder shape vs an elongated one I think our chances of seeing a moderate event go up quite a bit. Conversely a weaker, less organized, elongated low and we may be talking more about conversational snow more then anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Why does WBAL still use the RPM? It’s a terrible model. Dump that trash! They went with barely an inch in the corridor, but mentioned that might change since other models spread more precipitation westward. Duh! Everyone knows the NAVGEM rules the kingdom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I know a lot of the precip on the western side isn't hitting the ground, but holy virga, that's a lot earlier and further west at this point than even this weenie mind would have thought. http://weather.unisys.com/radar/hires_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l3®ion=at What site do you use to actually show what is hitting the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: What site do you use to actually show what is hitting the ground? I don't, I'm a weenie..... Actually, the radars on Unysis are decent. But I generally check out the radar then surface reports or webcams to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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